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Why were we all too optimistic on interest rates?

It wasn’t all that long ago – August 12 to be precise – that Reserve Bank governor Michele Bullock faced the media with a message that the time for interest rates to come down had arrived.

A month earlier she endured a combative press conference after a shock decision to keep the cash rate on hold. But with inflation forecast to return sustainably to target, the August cash rate cut to 3.6 per cent was expected to be followed up with more reductions.

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