SOUTH BEND, Ind. — Just like last year, Notre Dame debuted at No. 10 in the College Football Playoff selection committee’s first Top 25, which puts the Irish on track to return to the CFP with four more wins to close the regular season. Notre Dame should be 20-point favorites in three of those games, with the fourth, a Nov. 15 trip to No. 24 Pittsburgh, closer to a touchdown spread in favor of the Irish. The path to the CFP is not only reasonable, it’s downright favorable.
The Irish are the highest-ranked two-loss team in the CFP’s first rankings, slotted ahead of three one-loss teams from Power 4 conferences: No. 14 Virginia, No. 15 Louisville and No. 17 Georgia Tech. They have just one Top 25 win according to the committee, the 34-24 home victory over No. 19 USC last month. And head coach Marcus Freeman won’t use the initial rankings as fuel for Notre Dame’s November, maybe because it’s not entirely clear how it would power the Irish at all.
“I’m gonna use Saturday’s opportunity (against Navy) to motivate us. That’s what matters,” Freeman said on Monday. “Me using (CFP rankings) is, I believe, wasted time. I do. I do. And if I sit in my office and try to come up with some way to utilize our ranking to use it as motivation, I’m wasting time that I need to be really using to prepare for this upcoming game on Saturday.”
So, what did we learn about Notre Dame and its path to the CFP on Tuesday night?
If Notre Dame could freeze the opening bracket, it probably would
Yes, Notre Dame would prefer to open the Playoff with a home game, as it did last year in brushing aside Indiana, but there would be worse opening draws than a trip to No. 7 BYU in late December. The Athletic’s projection model would make No. 10 Notre Dame a 9.5-point favorite playing in Provo, compared to No. 9 Oregon being a one-point favorite at No. 8 Texas Tech, No. 12 Memphis being a 21-point underdog at No. 5 Georgia and No. 11 Virginia being a 15-point underdog at No. 6 Ole Miss.
If Notre Dame advanced past BYU, it would draw No. 2 Indiana in the quarterfinals, probably the most favorable matchup among the teams to earn byes. No. 1 Ohio State, No. 3 Texas A&M and No. 4 Alabama round out the top four.
Knock off Indiana, and Notre Dame could get a rematch with Texas A&M in the semifinals.
Perhaps most intriguing for Notre Dame? Defending national champion Ohio State, which has beaten the Irish each of the past three seasons, is on the other side of the bracket. The later Notre Dame could be matched against Ohio State in the postseason, the better.
Are the Irish a lock to make the field at 10-2?
Probably? And this is where Freeman’s “wasted time” comment holds the most weight. With four weeks remaining in the regular season plus championship weekend, there are too many permutations to figure out whether the Irish would definitely make the CFP with 10 wins or merely be almost certain to make it. (The Athletic’s model places Notre Dame’s odds to make the field at 81 percent.)
There are enough matchups in the SEC among teams trailing Notre Dame in the rankings to imagine one of those programs jumping the Irish. If No. 11 Texas wins out against No. 5 Georgia, Arkansas and No. 3 Texas A&M, it’s easy to envision the Longhorns vaulting the Irish. Similar story for No. 13 Oklahoma, which closes with No. 4 Alabama, No. 20 Missouri and LSU. It’s harder to make a case for No. 16 Vanderbilt, which finishes with Auburn, Kentucky and No. 25 Tennessee.
However, No. 7 BYU heads to No. 8 Texas Tech this weekend, with the loser certain to fall below Notre Dame. No. 9 Oregon also heads to No. 20 Iowa on Saturday. If the Hawkeyes upset the Ducks, there’s a good chance Notre Dame jumps Oregon next week.
But because of the current CFP selection criteria, where the five highest-ranked conference champions receive automatic bids, Notre Dame was actually the last at-large team into the field on Tuesday. Virginia, ranked No. 14 by the committee, made it as the highest-ranked ACC team. Memphis wasn’t ranked in the Top 25 at all, but the Tigers took the slot as the projected top Group of 5 program.
Yes, it’s very likely Notre Dame will be back in the CFP at 10-2. It’s just not quite a stone-cold lock.
Could Notre Dame host again?
For the Irish to get another CFP game on campus, Notre Dame needs to climb to No. 8 in the rankings, which would require some help during November.
For the sake of discussion, let’s assume Notre Dame cannot jump any of the top four seeds considering their records (Ohio State, Indiana and Texas A&M are undefeated) and their schedule (Alabama already has wins over No. 5 Georgia, No. 16 Vanderbilt, No. 22 Missouri and No. 25 Tennessee). The Crimson Tide will also get No. 12 Oklahoma in two weeks.
That leaves No. 5 Georgia, No. 6 Ole Miss, No. 7 BYU and No. 8 Texas Tech as potential marks, with No. 9 Oregon also a hurdle to clear. Here’s what’s left for those programs:
Georgia: at Mississippi State, No. 11 Texas, Charlotte, No. 17 Georgia Tech
Ole Miss: Citadel, Florida, at Mississippi State
BYU: at No. 8 Texas Tech, TCU, at Cincinnati, UCF
Texas Tech: No. 7 BYU, UCF, at West Virginia
Oregon: at No. 20 Iowa, Minnesota, No. 19 USC, at No. 23 Washington
Conference championship weekend remains a complicating factor, as it’s not entirely clear how the committee will punish teams that lose that extra game. For example, Penn State lost the Big Ten Championship Game last year but didn’t drop below idle Notre Dame. SMU lost the ACC Championship Game on a walk-off field goal but still made the field as the last team in.
The formula for Notre Dame to host a CFP game might only require an Oregon loss. Because one of Texas Tech and BYU are guaranteed to lose this weekend, and if Oregon stumbles at Iowa, the Irish might move into a hosting position by next week.
Notre Dame doesn’t need to worry about Miami
One of the criteria for the selection committee in ranking teams is head-to-head matchups. To a point.
You probably remember Notre Dame lost at Miami on opening weekend. Two months later, Notre Dame and Miami have the same record. But the No. 18 Hurricanes, despite that marquee win over the Irish, appear to be too far behind Notre Dame to catch up.
“Head-to-head really matters when the teams are comparable at the margins. We look at that really, really closely,” said selection committee chair Mack Rhoades. “Again, I think back to Notre Dame, the committee felt strongly that that is a team that when you look at Week 1 to now, a team that has improved, has gotten better, particularly when we think about defensively. I talked about the running game, and what I didn’t talk about is the quarterback play of (CJ) Carr. As a freshman, he’s just been really, really good, throws a great deep ball and has been really consistent for them at that spot.
“Again, to the point of that team is getting better, Notre Dame, six straight wins.”
If there’s an either/or decision to be made between Notre Dame and Miami, it appears the CFP committee has already made it.
“I’m just going to say it: For Miami, it’s about consistency and their lack of consistency,” Rhodes said. “We just need to see more consistency out of Miami headed down the stretch.”
