Are Canada’s Scheifele, Schaefer And Celebrini Olympics Locks? That Depends

The list of players hoping to play themselves onto Canada’s Olympic team is as long as it is accomplished.
There are young guys, such as Macklin Celebrini and Connor Bedard, who are in the top 10 and 20, respectively, in league scoring. And even younger guys, such as rookie Matthew Schaefer, who leads all defensemen with five goals in 12 games.
There are older guys, like John Tavares, who is tied for second with 14 even-strength points in 13 games. There are physical players, like Tom Wilson, two-way players, like Nick Suzuki, and players, like goalie Logan Thompson, who are heating up at just the right time.
And then there’s Mark Scheifele.
The Winnipeg Jets center, who was somehow snubbed from the 4 Nations Face-Off roster, shouldn’t really be considered a hopeful anymore.
At this point, he’s a lock. Or the closest to being one.
That is, until you start to do the math.
One month into the season, Scheifele leads the NHL with 20 points in 12 games. His nine goals are one fewer than the league leaders. On Monday, he was named the NHL’s second star for October.
If that isn’t enough to warrant a spot somewhere on Team Canada’s roster, then something is up. Something that goes beyond goals and points and, frankly, common sense.
Of course, you could probably say the same thing about Celebrini, Tavares and Thompson, as well as many more. As is often said, you could make a gold medal-calibre team out of the players who are not chosen for Team Canada.
Which raises the question: how many actual spots are up for grabs?
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The Montreal Canadiens defenseman, who was snubbed at the 4 Nations Face-Off, was recently named to the 44-man preliminary roster for the 2026 Olympics in Milan.
Here’s what we know: six players – forwards Sidney Crosby, Connor McDavid, Nathan MacKinnon, Brayden Point, Sam Reinhart and defenseman Cale Makar – were already named to the Olympics roster. That leaves 18 more roster spots. Of those, priority will obviously be given to the players who helped Canada win at the 4 Nations Face-Off and have already developed some chemistry together.
Up front, let’s assume that Mitch Marner, Sam Bennett and Brad Marchand are locks, because they deserve to be locks based on their play. Let’s also assume the same for Brandon Hagel and Anthony Cirelli, whose coach in Tampa Bay is also Team Canada’s coach.
Mark Stone is injured, but as long as he’s healthy by February, he’ll be on the team.
On defense, Devon Toews, Josh Morrissey and Shea Theodore are locks. The same goes for Colton Parayko, whose GM in St. Louis is Team Canada’s GM, and Thomas Harley, who just signed an eight-year extension worth $84.7 million in Dallas to become one of the NHL’s highest-paid defenseman.
In net, you can bet that Jordan Binnington and Adin Hill will be in Milan. But based on how Sam Montembeault has started the season in Montreal, there’s an opening for the No. 3 spot.
So that leaves forwards Seth Jarvis and Travis Konecny, defensemen Drew Doughty and Travis Sanheim, as well as Montembeault, on the bubble.
That’s five potential openings: two at forward, two on defense and one in net.
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While Jordan Binnington and Adin Hill remain locks to be in Milan, the No. 3 spot could see a change with Sam Montembeault struggling to start the season
It doesn’t give a lot of wiggle room for Team Canada to add many players.
Based on his offensive production, Scheifele seems like a no-brainer. But does Canada need more offense or, considering that Jarvis and Konecny could be the odd men out, is adding a fourth-liner who can kill penalties, forecheck and keep pucks out of the zone, more important? If it’s the latter, you might want to go with a player such as Wilson or Suzuki or someone with the versatility of Celebrini, who also has the familiarity of having played on a line with Crosby at the World Championship last spring.
On defense, it’s more of the same.
Schaefer’s offensive upside is tough to pass up. But remember, Sanheim was picked not for his offense but rather his size and penalty-killing ability. Meanwhile, Doughty, who replaced injured Alex Pietrangelo, was chosen for his experience, having won gold in 2010 and 2014.
The goaltending situation is even cloudier because the No. 3 goalie isn’t necessarily someone who will see any playing time. That’s sort of why Montembeault, who was the only Quebec-born player at the 4 Nations Face-Off, was picked in the first place.
Either way, expect there to be disappointments and some world-class players left off the roster.
Here is my projected roster for Team Canada:
Forwards
Mark Scheifele – Connor McDavid – Mitch Marner
Macklin Celebrini – Sidney Crosby – Nathan MacKinnon
Sam Bennett – Brayden Point – Sam Reinhart
Brandon Hagel – Anthony Cirelli – Mark Stone
x- Brad Marchand
In: Macklin Celebrini, Mark Scheifele
Out: Seth Jarvis, Travis Konecny
Defense
Devon Toews – Cale Makar
Shea Theodore – Josh Morrissey
Thomas Harley – Colton Parayko
x- Matthew Schaefer, Drew Doughty
In: Matthew Schaefer
Out: Travis Sanheim
Goalies
Jordan Binnington – Adin Hill
x- Logan Thompson
In: Logan Thompson
Out: Sam Montembeault
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