The NHL salary cap’s $7.5 million jump this year has already had significant ramifications on player contracts and team-building strategy. We’re only in the early stages of seeing how powerfully this could disrupt the league — when the cap ceiling reaches its projected $113.5 million figure in 2027-28, it will represent a near-40 percent increase in less than five years.
Some of the rule changes in the league’s new CBA — including reducing players’ max contract lengths by a year, restrictions on double-retention salary trades, and some limitations on in-season cap accrual (AHL paper transactions are no longer permitted) — add further layers to the changing economics of the sport.
“Everything is changing,” said one NHL agent, who was granted anonymity to speak freely. “We have to see how it changes, but you’re starting to see signs of it.”
Here’s an early look at who some of the winners and losers of this new cap growth phase could be, based on early market trends and conversations The Athletic had with NHL agents and executives.
Winners
Star players
Kirill Kaprizov’s record-breaking eight-year, $136 million contract extension was the most obvious example of inflating salaries for stars, but it’s just the tip of the iceberg.
In the 2022-23 season, Connor McDavid was the only NHL player with a cap hit of $12 million or greater. For 2026-27, nine players will make at least $12 million against the cap: Kaprizov, Leon Draisaitl, Jack Eichel, Auston Matthews, Nathan MacKinnon, McDavid, Mitch Marner, Mikko Rantanen and Kyle Connor. Five of those nine contracts were signed within the last seven months.
“You’re seeing those NFL dynamics where the highest-paid quarterbacks were just the next man up,” said another NHL player agent. “I think you’ll see more of that where it’s like, ‘Yeah, I’m not (quite) as good as (Player X), but hey, the cap is $120 (million) now and it was $104 (million) when (Player X) signed. I’m not signing for less than him.’”
It isn’t just superstars whose salaries are inflating; the entire upper class of NHL players has been rewarded handsomely.
In 2022-23, there were 74 NHL players with a cap hit of $7 million or greater, according to PuckPedia. That class of $7 million and higher players is projected to nearly double by the start of next season, and it will have tripled compared to the 2019-20 season.
Note: 2026-27 final number of 143 players is a projection. 121 players are officially under contract at $7 million or higher. There are 22 additional players expected to join that list based on AFPAnalytics’ estimates for remaining top players on expiring contracts (e.g. Adrian Kempe, Connor Bedard, Artemi Panarin, Adam Fantilli, etc).
Young restricted free agents with star potential are seeing some of the most significant financial gains. Many teams are prioritizing long-term cap certainty, leading to big recent deals for Jackson LaCombe ($9 million AAV), Luke Hughes ($9 million AAV), Dustin Wolf ($7.5 million AAV) and others.
Teams re-signing young players to long-term deals before entry-level contracts expire
Recently, some teams have made an aggressive push to re-sign their young guns to long-term extensions, even though they have a full year remaining on their entry-level contracts and a limited number of NHL games under their belts. These teams have essentially chosen to pay their young players up front based on trajectory. There’s an extremely high probability that most of these contracts will become steals in this rapidly inflating cap world.
PlayerSigning AgeExtensionNHL GP at time of signing
21
$8.85M x 8
87
21
$6.59M x 7
56
22
$6M x 8
102
21
$5.12M x 8
81
21
$7.14M x 8
78
21
$10M x 8
168
24
$7.5M x 7
71
Frank Nazar’s seven-year, $6.59 million AAV extension with the Chicago Blackhawks is a perfect example. When Nazar signed the deal last summer, he had only 27 points in 56 career NHL games. The Blackhawks have already been rewarded for that long-term commitment — Nazar has five goals and 11 points in 13 games this season. Imagine how much more expensive Nazar’s deal would have been if Chicago had waited until next summer to negotiate his second contract.
Teams like the Carolina Hurricanes, Montreal Canadiens and Utah Mammoth, which have most of their core players signed long-term through proactive planning, have an excellent salary-cap outlook.
On the flip side, you could argue teams like the Anaheim Ducks (Leo Carlsson and Cutter Gauthier) and Buffalo Sabres (Zach Benson) missed the boat last summer to lock up their young studs as soon as they were extension-eligible. Those players are all breaking out now and will be significantly more expensive to re-sign next summer when their ELCs expire.
“Teams that sat on their hands are gonna pay the price for it,” said Agent 2.
Big-bodied or physical third-line forwards/second-pair defensemen
We know the top skaters will see escalating contract prices, but will that benefit trickle down to forwards and defensemen lower in the lineup too? The agents and executives we spoke to think the middle class will mostly benefit, but one agent pointed out big-bodied/physical players have seen outsized gains in this new cap world compared to average and undersized middle-class peers.
Big 3rd liners/2nd Pair D Getting Paid
Player
Contract
Size
Date Signed
$3.4M x 5 ($17M)
6-2, 221 lbs
July 1, 2025
$4.25M x 5 ($21.25M)
6-4, 219 lbs
July 7, 2025
$3.85M x 8 ($30.8M)
6-3, 221 lbs
June 27, 2025
$3M x 6 ($18M)
6-1, 232 lbs
March 5, 2025
$8.5M x 7 ($59.5M)
6-1, 224 lbs
June 30, 2025
$4.5M x 4 ($18M)
6-3, 210 lbs
July 1, 2025
$4M x 3 ($12M)
6-4, 214 lbs
July 1, 2025
$4M x 5 ($20M)
6-5, 223 lbs
March 7, 2025
$5M x 8 ($40M)
6-6, 206 lbs
Oct. 2, 2025
Note: Jack McBain was re-signed as an RFA. The rest had UFA status.
“I think the Max Domis of the world — those types of guys that are smaller (size-wise), niche, they need to be in the right situation to maximize the value — (will get squeezed),” argued Agent 2.
Jack Roslovic is a perfect example of what Agent 2 described. Roslovic had to settle for a one-year, $1.5 million contract despite coming off a 22-goal season. Andrei Kuzmenko re-upped for just one year with the L.A. Kings despite scoring 17 points in 22 games down the stretch.
Pius Suter, an excellent defensive center coming off a 25-goal season, is arguably better than all of the forwards in the table above. However, because of his undersized 5-foot-11 frame, he signed a very modest two-year, $4.125 million AAV contract with the St. Louis Blues. That’s $22.5 million less in contract value than Trent Frederic’s eight-year deal with the Oilers.
Teams seem comfortable paying a premium for big/physical third-line forwards and second-pair defensemen in this rising cap, but appear far more conservative with average and undersized players of a similar talent level.
Starting goaltenders
Last year, the goaltending market inflated pretty significantly. Igor Shesterkin set a new high-water mark with an $11.5 million cap hit, and others like Jeremy Swayman and Linus Ullmark signed lucrative extensions.
It’s also clear, however, that the next tier of goalies — middle-of-the-road starters with imperfect resumes — have benefited too. There was no guarantee that these mid-range starters would still receive big paydays, because there are countless examples of teams being burned by these contracts in the past, including with Jack Campbell, Tristan Jarry, Joonas Korpisalo, Elvis Merzlikins and others. So far, that hasn’t deterred teams from investing heavily in non-elite starters. The cap hits for most of these deals are actually pretty reasonable, but the key is that they’ve secured many years of term. That’s especially notable because goalies are notoriously volatile, and many of these puckstoppers had a smaller sample size of success as an NHL starter when teams committed to them.
Middle class goalies getting paid
Player
Contract
Years as an above-average starter
$6.8M x 5 years
2
$4.5M x 5 years
1
$6.25M x 6 years
3
$4.75M x 5 years
1
$5.8M x 6 years
2
Kevin Lankinen’s experience is representative of this recently shifting goalie-friendly market. The 30-year-old was an excellent backup in Nashville for Juuse Saros and hit free agency in 2024. He had the upside to excel in a bigger role, but the market was soft, so he was forced to sign a cheap one-year, $875,000 contract with the Vancouver Canucks. Lankinen was solid in 51 games for the Canucks in 2024-25, which marked his first full season as a starter. He was able to parlay that into a hefty five-year, $22.5 million extension to be the 1B option behind Thatcher Demko.
Contenders trying to dump overpriced contracts
In past years, there were countless cases of teams having to pay hefty draft capital to offload undesirable contracts.
The most famous example is from the summer of 2019, when the Toronto Maple Leafs surrendered a 2020 first-round pick to offload the last year of Patrick Marleau’s $6.25 million cap hit to the Hurricanes. That first-rounder ended up becoming the No. 13 pick, which the Hurricanes used to draft Seth Jarvis. From a rebuilding team’s point of view, the Canadiens pulled off a masterclass by acquiring a first-round pick from the Calgary Flames to absorb Sean Monahan as a cap dump, resuscitating his value and then later flipping him to the Winnipeg Jets for another first-rounder as a rental.
Last summer’s cap-dump market, however, was very different. With many buyers having an abundance of cap space to burn and a lack of talent hitting the free-agent market, it was easier for cap-strapped contenders to find takers for slightly overpriced contracts. And in most cases, they actually got positive value.
Overpriced contracts moved last summer
Player
Contract remaining
The move
$5.125M x 1
EDM receives 2025 fourth-rounder from VAN
$4M x 1
EDM receives 2027 fifth-rounder from BOS
$3.15M x 1
NJD receives Jeremy Hanzel and 2025 fourth-rounder from NSH
$2.5M x 4
COL receives Gavin Brindley, 2025 third-rounder and conditional 2027 seventh-rounder from CBJ for Wood and Charlie Coyle
$5.5M x 2
SEA receives Joe Veleno from CHI
$4.75M x 1
DET receives future considerations from MIN
$3.25M x 3
VAN receives 2028 fourth-rounder from TOR
$4M x 1
Claimed off waivers by SJS
The Oilers, as one example, were able to clear over $9 million in cap space by offloading Evander Kane and Viktor Arvidsson. In the flat-cap era, offloading contracts like that would have come with a cost. Now, as long as the player you’re trying to move is still somewhat useful and the contract isn’t a complete anchor, there’s a good chance you’ll be able to find a taker.
Losers
Small- and mid-market teams with budget constraints
In the flat-cap era, most teams were able to spend to the salary cap ceiling. However, the agents and execs we spoke to universally agreed some small- and mid-market teams will struggle to spend to the cap in future years once it exceeds $100 million.
“Small-market teams are gonna have trouble with this cap,” said Agent 1.
“I’m gonna guess — and I haven’t looked at it close (yet) — you’re gonna have 10 teams, when you get over $100 million, (spending) to the cap,” predicted one NHL executive. “I think people will be surprised by some teams that don’t do it,” he added later in the conversation.
Teams in smaller markets may need to craft a longer-term financial plan to abide by internal budgets. They may have to spend less in certain years where they aren’t as competitive and bank those savings for seasons when they plan to go all-in.
“It’s gonna be up to the general manager to say, ‘We’re bad right now, so we’re gonna spend to the floor, and then I’m gonna save that because in Year 5, I wanna be at the cap (ceiling) and I wanna use that to be best prepared to win,” said another agent.
Mediocre teams with cap space relying on free agency and trades to land high-end players
The Florida Panthers’ ability to re-sign all three of Sam Bennett, Aaron Ekblad, and Brad Marchand was the first big sign that fewer impact players were going to hit free agency in this rising-cap world. Contenders simply have increasing cap flexibility to keep their talent. And the 2026 free-agent market already looks thin after the flurry of recent star player extensions.
The cap increase has also made it harder for teams to acquire high-end players on the trade market. In the flat-cap era, you had All-Star-caliber players like Devon Toews, Pavel Buchnevich and Kevin Fiala, among others, who were traded because their previous teams were capped out and couldn’t afford their next contracts. There are fewer of those cap crunch-related opportunities emerging — a very small number of first-line wingers and top-six centers switched teams last summer.
With weaker talent available on the free-agent and trade market, it’s harder for teams to leverage cap space to acquire core players and shoot up the standings. Cap space alone isn’t as valuable an asset as it used to be. This hurts mediocre teams like the New York Rangers, who have ample cap flexibility next summer but will be limited in their ability to go big-game hunting because there simply aren’t enough good players available. Last summer it hurt the Canucks, who were desperate to find a second-line center. It also makes it more difficult for a rebuilding team like the Chicago Blackhawks to find an established star for Connor Bedard to play with or for the San Jose Sharks to add game-changing players in their mid-to-late 20s to help accelerate the rebuild.
If you’re a team in the bottom half of the league, you’re going to need to rely heavily on developing your prospects and internal talent. It isn’t to say you’ll never be able to land impact players via trades or free agency because it’ll still happen from time to time, but those opportunities are going to come less frequently and be more competitive in the years to come.
Lower-class NHL players
Star players across the board will see escalating salaries because they’re every team’s top priority. The middle class’s benefits will likely be on a case-by-case basis, with some players profiting and others staying relatively flat. There may not be much discretionary money left over, though, for the bottom 25 percent or so of NHL players (think fourth-line forwards and third-pair defensemen) to see significant raises.
“I think the lower class is gonna get killed,” said Agent 1.
Teams will likely be more willing to bet on cheap players in their own farm system to fill out their final roster spots rather than risk overpaying depth players.
“I wonder if those (lower-class) guys will pay for the fact that (some teams will say) ‘I have an internal budget now and I’ve spent all my money on (my top players),’” said Agent 2.
Teams that signed RFAs with high upside to short-term deals last summer
Last summer, there were a few examples of teams re-signing talented RFAs to short-term extensions. The cap hits for these contracts are very team-friendly today, but these players’ next contracts will be exorbitantly more expensive as the cap skyrockets.
You’re essentially getting short-term gain but potential long-term pain.
Short deals for top RFAs last summer
Player
New contract
2025-26 stats
$5M x 3
12 GP, 3G-9A-12 PTS
$5.6M x 3
12 GP, 5G-6A-11 PTS
$5.75M x 3
N/A (injured)
$4.175M x 2
12 GP, 5G-5A-10 PTS
Why didn’t the Sharks pay a premium to re-sign William Eklund, who was 22 and coming off a 58-point season, to a long-term deal? Yes, it would have cost them a higher cap hit up front, but San Jose has an endless pit of cap space in the short term. By the second half of a long-term deal, the Sharks could have been looking at a steal for Eklund, at a critical time when it may be entering a contention window.
The Wild should have just bit the bullet and committed to Marco Rossi long-term rather than their three-year bridge. Rossi’s already producing at a prolific rate this year, and will have a ton of leverage in three years as an arbitration-eligible RFA who will be just one year away from UFA status.
It’s far from ideal that the Jets walked their shutdown ace Dylan Samberg straight to unrestricted free agency as well.
All salary data courtesy of PuckPedia
