Time for another go-around with your fantasy football forecaster at The Athletic! Heading into Week 10, it’s second verse, same as the first. Survive bye weeks and try to steal a win this weekend with projections decided by a hair. As always, I’ll go position by position to mine my favorite advanced statistics regarding volume, depth and efficiency to identify next week’s waiver headliners today.
Then, for all the normies out there with actual social lives or you last-minute managers on the go, I also include a weekly section at the bottom — “Sunday’s Streaming Service” — to help plug 11th-hour holes in leagues with late waiver wire runs or first-come, first-served free agency. Grab your fantasy kit, we’re speculating on the NFL’s most impactful adds.
Quarterbacks
Of course, when searching for a fantasy quarterback, we need volume and a willingness to push the ball downfield, without ignoring the importance of rushing, so I chart an already shallow quarterback player pool, combining total dropbacks, air yards per target and rushing yards per game to create a simple reference tool.
Ranking Available QBs with +28 dropbacks/game, +6.0 air yards/target (Last 4 Weeks)
Player
Tm
Dropbacks
AY/Att
RuYd/Gm
SEA
29.0
10.2
1.0
ARI
43.3
7.7
16.3
ATL
39.0
6.7
10.3
TEN
37.5
6.7
2.5
LV
28.7
6.7
2.3
MIA
32.5
6.4
2.8
JAX
48.3
6.2
17.0
If I’ve said it once, I’ve said it a thousand times — when in doubt, start quarterbacks who run. Then appear smarter than your competition; rinse and repeat. My speculative play hasn’t changed; it’s Justin Fields once again, who’s still rostered in less than half of leagues. Of course, the Jets’ front office continues to spoil our fun by refusing to name a starter. Huh? Someone, anywhere, explain something to me very slowly. Why on earth isn’t the player making +$23M next year, who just won your first game all season and isn’t 36 years old, assured a starting role while healthy?
If you paid any attention to Wednesday’s trade deadline, you couldn’t help but notice the Jets ripping it down to the studs. Jettisoning their two most talented defenders bodes perfectly for the fantasy offense. Garrett Wilson is on the verge of returning, plus newly acquired Adonai Mitchell will likely slide into a much-needed full-time WR role. Say what you want about his bone-headed Week 4 goal-line fumble, but what’s done is done. Sometimes a change of scenery cures that stuff right away — it’s not like Mitchell has been inefficient in his career despite limited work: 26.1% targets per route, 1.71 yards per route.
Suddenly, the Jets boast a pretty talented set of skill-position players. Assume they’re trailing and subsequent game scripts are perfect. As I mentioned last week, Fields is clearly flawed as a passer, though the fantasy ceiling is undeniable — he already has two top-five positional finishes on the ledger in just seven starts this season. If New York starts Tyrod Taylor, I will begin immediately accepting applications for a new favorite team. But if they start Fields, the price will never be this low again.
Week 10 byes: Dak Prescott, Patrick Mahomes, Joe Flacco, Cam Ward
Running backs
I won’t repeat the mainstream headliners since I’m coming to you after the free-agent vultures already feasted. That said, with so many different league types and sizes out there, make sure popular adds Kyle Monangai, Emari Demercado, Isaiah Davis and Kareem Hunt have a home before you go deep-league dumpster diving. Last year, pivoting away from simply using the lowest-hanging fruit — total touches — proved useful. Instead, we frame utilization a little differently, using touch-per-snap rate, which offers a unique perspective on frequency without requiring volume. Then I’ll get out the microscope for any widely unrostered ball carriers showing top-tier efficiency reflected in high fantasy points per snap (FPTS/snap).
Ranking Available RBs with +30% touches/snap, +0.25 FPTS/snap (Last 4 Weeks)
Player
Tm
Touch/Snap
FPTS/Snap
Touch/Game
ARI
45.7%
0.31
8.0
NYG
32.7%
0.27
4.5
GB
42.7%
0.25
8.0
NE
30.6%
0.49
4.8
PHI
40.7%
0.65
3.7
JAX
32.2%
0.35
6.3
SF
32.1%
0.57
4.3
TB
32.3%
0.55
6.7
ARI
36.4%
0.27
13.3
*RBs included have a minimum of 10 touches.
We’ve spent several weeks covering how running-back-by-committee approaches continue to haunt fantasy gamers. Time to face facts: The days of +25-touch workhorse tailbacks have gone the way of the dodo. And worse than the diminishing supply of reliable workloads is the stress on handcuffs, regardless of whether they’re startable. Since more and more players earn backfield touch shares between 30-40%, the tendency to hoard backups has never been more prevalent.
Fantasy-viable running backs are in short supply as always, with another four teams on bye, so maybe the next best thing is to front-run their potential upside opportunities.
Tahj Brooks, CIN — Cincinnati’s offense discovered the fountain of youth with 40-year-old Joe Flacco under center, while consolidating their RB touch share over the past month. Then veteran Samaje Perine suffered a dreaded high-ankle sprain, leaving Brooks as the only other active player with a backfield opportunity this season. Cincy’s sixth-round rookie should assume a part-time role right away, with what I feel is a chance to earn at least what Perine did — it will come down to protection, vision, tackle-breaking, etc. That said, this is precisely the team to attach yourself to if things break right — a perfect combination of atrocious defense and prolific offense.
Phil Mafah, DAL — Staying with the theme of assuming second chairs in high-powered offenses, I have to admit seeing the Cowboys’ Jaydon Blue scratched on Monday night despite being healthy killed me a little inside. Then Malik Davis got waived! But since stubbornness will get us nowhere, it’s time to move on. Dallas’ seventh-round rookie out of Clemson, Mafah, just started practicing, lining him up well to play in Week 11 at Las Vegas after Dallas’ bye. Copy and paste my expectations and ceiling case from Brooks — ease into a small but consistent workload on a high-scoring offense with a chance to take over duties in case of emergency.
Week 10 byes: Javonte Williams, Chase Brown, Kareem Hunt, Tony Pollard
Deep-league RB stashbox (sub-50% roster rates)
- Tyler Allgeier, ATL
- Tank Bigsby, PHI
- Emanuel Wilson, GB
- Isaiah Davis, NYJ
- Bhayshul Tuten, JAX
- Devin Singletary, NYG
- Sean Tucker, TB
- Devin Neal, NO
- Brian Robinson, SF
- Justice Hill, BAL
- Phil Mafah, DAL
- Tahj Brooks, CIN
- Dylan Sampson, CLE
- Tyjae Spears, TEN
- Ameer Abdullah, IND
- Raheem Mostert, LV
- Jaylen Wright, MIA
Wide receivers
Like free agent RBs, make sure this week’s top WR additions Christian Watson, Troy Franklin, Alec Pierce, Parker Washington and Chimere Dike already belong to a squad. With that out of the way, every sharp fantasy manager knows targets are earned — which is precisely why talent level matters so much at the position. Earning targets is the carrying tool for WR speculation — the opportunities will come.
And while playing time is nice, it’s not enough. Snap counts are an obvious measure for wideout usage, but routes run test better. Do we really care if our guy is out there blocking downfield? I don’t. So, let’s see who’s running routes and earning an above-average amount of looks while doing it. That’s the formula.
Ranking Available WRs with +14 routes/game, 14% targets/route, 0.30 FPTS/route (Last 4 Weeks)
Player
Tm
Rte/Gm
Tar/Rte
FPTS/Rte
DEN
30.8
26.0%
0.42
TB
29.0
20.7%
0.42
GB
27.0
14.8%
0.38
PIT
28.5
21.1%
0.31
CHI
24.5
24.5%
0.37
TEN
29.5
15.3%
0.37
NE
20.3
17.3%
0.38
CAR
26.3
18.1%
0.33
MIA
24.0
21.9%
0.36
HOU
17.0
25.5%
0.45
PIT
16.5
15.2%
0.34
*WRs included have a minimum of 20 targets.
All good things come to an end. Between injuries and multiple first-round wideouts off this weekend on bye, for the first time all season, there’s not a single widely available pass-catcher projecting for more than a small handful of fantasy points. Dig all you like, the stones are turned. I’m defaulting to factory settings — chase the highest scoring teams. Right now, that’s the Buffalo Bills, who somehow are the NFL’s third-highest team, yet their leading route-runner is available in more than half of leagues. That probably tells us all we need to know about Keon Coleman, fantasy football’s WR48 (which drops to WR74 when excluding his Week 1 breakout). Desperation is a stinky cologne, but we know he’ll be on the field with a +28-point implied team total. Could do worse.
Week 10 byes: Ja’Marr Chase, CeeDee Lamb. George Pickens, Tee Higgins, Rashee Rice, Xavier Worthy,
Tight ends
Remember to ensure this week’s top tight end adds Oronde Gadsden, Harold Fannin and Luke Musgrave aren’t floating around first. Unfortunately, like QBs, any correct answers have no shelf-life, immediately getting swallowed up for good. However, I did see your comments asking for a tight end list similar to running backs — we got you!
Deep-league TE Ranks
- Juwan Johnson, NO
- Colston Loveland, CHI
- Theo Johnson, NYG
- Mason Taylor, NYJ
- Isaiah Likely, BAL
- Zach Ertz, WAS
- Noah Fant, CIN
- Jonnu Smith, PIT
- Tommy Tremble, CAR
Week 10 streaming service:
- QB — J.J. McCarthy (MIN) vs. BAL
- RB — Devin Singletary (NYG) at CHI
- WR — Keon Coleman (BUF) at MIA
- TE — Dalton Schultz (HOU) at JAX
