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Michigan State basketball vs. Arkansas: Matchup analysis and a prediction

• What: Michigan State vs. Arkansas

• When: 7 p.m. Saturday

• Where: Breslin Center

TV/Radio: FOX/Spartan Sports Network radio, including WJIM 1240-AM and WMMQ 94.9-FM; SiriusXM Ch. 196 MSU broadcast, 191 Arkansas broadcast

• Records: MSU is 1-0 after an 80-69 home win over Colgate on Monday. Arkansas is also 1-0 after a 109-77 home win over Southern on Monday.

• Betting line: MSU -1.5

• Coaches: Michigan State — Tom Izzo is 737-302 in his 31st season as a head coach, all with the Spartans. Arkansas — John Calipari is 836-275 in his 34th season as a head coach and 23-14 in his second season with the Razorbacks.

• Series: MSU is 2-0 all-time against Arkansas. The most recent meeting came in Tom Izzo’s first season as MSU’s head coach, when the Spartans beat the Razorbacks in the Great Eight at The Palace of Auburn Hills in 1995.

Projected lineups

MSU

C (15) Carson Cooper (6-11) 10.0

F (0) Jaxon Kohler (6-9) 16.0

F (55) Coen Carr (6-5) 12.0

G (2) Kur Teng (6-4) 6.0

PG (1) Jeremy Fears Jr. (6-2) 14.0

Arkansas

C (7) Trevon Brazile (6-10) 25

PF (23) Nick Pringle (6-10) 8.0

G (24) Billy Richmond III (6-6) 6.0

G (5) Darius Acuff Jr. (6-3) 22.0

G (21) D.J. Wagner (6-4) 8.0

• MSU update: The Spartans are coming off an 80-69 win over Colgate in their season opener on Monday. MSU is still trying to find itself a bit on both ends of the court. The Spartans made 42% of their shots overall and 6 of 21 3-point attempts, while allowing Colgate to shoot better than 47% from the floor and make 11 of 29 3-pointers. Where the Spartans imposed their will Monday was on the offensive glass, dominating with a 19-3 advantage. Jaxon Kohler had seven of his 15 rebounds on the offensive end, while leading MSU in scoring with 16 points. Jeremy Fears Jr. got off to a good start with 14 points, 10 assists, five rebounds, five steals and one turnover in 34 minutes. If MSU is to change its starting lineup for Saturday night, it’ll be at shooting guard. Sophomore Kur Teng started both exhibitions and the opener, but has struggled so far. Transfer Trey Fort has provided a little more pop offensively at the position and freshman Jordan Scott has been the Spartans’ biggest surprise.

MORE: Couch: Kur Teng’s parents sacrificed for him to chase the American dream. He’s trying to pay it back at MSU.

• Arkansas update: Arkansas beat up on Southern University in its opener, 109-77. The Razorbacks’ headliner is true freshman guard Darius Acuff Jr., who led Detroit Cass Tech to a state championship as a sophomore before transferring to IMG Academy in Florida. He’s a big-time talent, a likely first-round NBA draft pick next June. His backcourt mates are pretty good, too — fellow five-star recruit Meleek Thomas and junior D.J. Wagner, who can play on or off the ball. Both of them had seven assists in the opener. What could also make Arkansas scary this season is if the Razorbacks get more nights out of big man Trevon Brazile like they did on Monday, when the 6-10 senior had 25 points and 11 rebounds. Arkansas had an up-and-down season a year ago in Calipari’s first go-round, before making a run to the Sweet 16 as a 10 seed in the NCAA tournament. They begin this season ranked No. 14 in the Associated Press preseason poll, which isn’t worth much, other than giving us a sense of expectations for them.

• Matchup analysis: The lead guard battle should be fun, with Fears and Acuff. This will be a taxing assignment for Fears on both ends. Acuff is a quick and powerful athlete, who loves to push the ball and is tough to keep out of the paint. He’ll also let it fly from beyond the arc — he hit 3 of 5 3-pointers in the opener. MSU will need more than Fears to keep him in check. Just as big a concern is how MSU’s other guards handle Wagner and Thomas. Arkansas wants a track meet. Usually, MSU does, too. But as Izzo put it, the Razorbacks are more equipped for one right now.

In the paint, we’ll find out if the Spartans are the rebounding team they appeared to be against Colgate. Arkansas has size and experience down low. Brazile was an ascending player a year ago and appears to have kept that trajectory. Malique Ewin (South Carolina) and Nick Pringle (Florida State) are both proven big guys, too. All three of them are at least 6-foot-10 and 230 pounds. This will be a test for MSU’s interior players, Kohler, Carson Cooper and redshirt freshman Jesse McCulloch, as well as freshman power forward Cam Ward. Ward’s role shouldn’t decrease just because the opponent has some size. Like MSU, Arkansas lived at the line in its opener. Unlike MSU, the Razorbacks made most of their free throws, hitting 25 of 29.

The other issue for MSU will be how it handles Arkansas’ man-to-man ball pressure, which often extends most of the court. As Izzo put it, Fears is going to have to be “a rock” for the Spartans in this one.

• Prediction: We’ll get a good sense of where this MSU team is Saturday night against Arkansas. The exhibition against Connecticut was a dry run that told us the Spartans had work to do. But that was on the road and an exhibition, with lineups you won’t see Saturday night against the Razorbacks. I don’t know if Arkansas has as compete a roster as UConn, but the Razorbacks have a dynamic young lead guard, athleticism throughout their top eight guys and skilled size in the paint. This would be a really good win for the Spartans.

• Make it: Arkansas 81, MSU 75

MORE: Couch: Predicting Michigan State’s basketball season – Arkansas through Duke, the Big Ten and March Madness

Contact Graham Couch at gcouch@lsj.com. Follow him on X @Graham_Couch and BlueSky @GrahamCouch.

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