Expect Ivica Zubac to see an increase in his 19% usage rate in tonight’s matchup against the Suns.
Welcome to the Thursday DFS Slate slate! I am once again back to cover the NBA this year from a DFS perspective, providing strategy and player advice for every Thursday and Monday slate. It was a great season last year, where I missed out on some big wins but ended up profitable. Let’s run it back again this year, shall we?
If you’re going to play NBA DFS, you have to keep in mind lineup announcements and stay tuned for late swapping. That is going to be the easiest way to stay ahead of the field and in the money. There’s only one game today on the showdown slate so things are a bit different but we still got DFS to play. In the end, it’s about making the right choices and picking your spots, which is why I’m here. Let’s break down the top plays for this slate.
NBA DFS Captain/MVP plays
Devin Booker (PG – PHX)
- DraftKings: $17,400
- FanDuel: $20,700
I don’t think I’m saying anything profound when it comes to Devin Booker in your captain spot but he clearly has the highest ceiling of today’s slate. Booker has kept the Phoenix offense afloat with tow different 60-plus point performances and while I’d be surprised if he repeated that tonight, he has seen some pretty incredible usage at 31% on the season. The Clippers are one of the slowest teams in the NBA early this season so the possession rate will be low, but everyone is in the same boat so it’s basically a moot point. If you can fit Booker into your MVP slot, he’s your clear number one option.
Ivica Zubac (C – LAC)
- DraftKings: $12,900
- FanDuel: $15,900
If you aren’t feeling Booker, I will suggest one Ivica Zubac. These two will make up a bulk of captain ownership today based on early ownership projections so I will say if you’re playing in larger field GPP’s, you may want to pivot to some other options, but we’ll get to that later. With no James Harden and no Kawhi Leonard, there are value options that open up but Zubac will get increased usage over his current 19% clip. I do think Zubac is more contrarian and I’m surprised that Phoenix is only a three-point favorite tonight but the bulk of play should go through the Clippers center tonight.
NBA DFS core plays
Bogdan Bogdanović (G/F – LAC)
- DraftKings: $1,000
- FanDuel: $3,400
With all the injuries and showdown set-up there is some weird pricing on today’s slate. Bogdanović played nearly 30 minutes on Tuesday against Oklahoma City and is still min-priced on DraftKings. He’s capable of doing the same exact thing tonight and producing 30 DK points. I think that’s projecting a ceiling outcome for him but even putting him closer to 20 minutes still means he’s the perfect punt option, especially if you’re going with one of the higher owned captain choices. With the injuries, there’s already playing time baked in for Bogdanović, so he is probably the safest $1k choice you will ever get.
Kris Dunn (G – LAC)
- DraftKings: $5,000
- FanDuel: $4,200
The value options are mostly going to be on the Clippers side from the injuries but because of that, they’re comfortable options. Dunn should start again tonight and with no Harden play even more than 30 minutes from last time out. He also had a rough game so I do expect an improved performance from his 22 DK point output against the Thunder. The Suns have allowed the third highest fantasy points to opposing point guards this year and I imagine Dunn’s usage will jump closer to 20% given the lineup construction.
Grayson Allen (G – PHX)
- DraftKings: $5,800
- FanDuel: $8,800
On the Phoenix side besides Booker, I think Allen is set up for success. You can roster Mark Williams and Allen given the pricing on today’s slate but I don’t think you have to do that and can spend more money elsewhere without Williams. The Clippers are one of the slowest teams in the league but they still allow a top-five clip of fantasy points to opposing guards. Whatever you consider Allen, he’s still facing a bottom-five defense. Jalen Green is back in the lineup tonight as well but I expect him to ease back into the lineup and Allen to stick to 30 or so minutes of playing time to return excellent value on DraftKings.
John Collins (F – LAC)
- DraftKings: $7,600
- FanDuel: $5,800
Finally tonight, we have John Collins. Again, I don’t mean to sound like a broken record but almost everyone on LAC gets a bump tonight with who’s available. Collins is efficient with his time on the court, averaging a near 23% usage clip while projecting for around 27 minutes played tonight. Those combined numbers projects him quite well, despite likely coming off the bench again tonight. If you decide to go the Bogdan route, you have room for all six listed players here and still have nearly $5k leftover on DK. It’s a whacky showdown slate tonight so don’t be afraid to leave some money on the table.
