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Many NFL bettors start by looking at individual markets — like spreads, totals, teasers or props — and ask, “Which spread looks good?” or “What totals stand out this week?” This is a bottom-up approach, where you focus on specific bets first.
In this space, we’ll take a different approach. We’ll focus on one game each week and use a top-down strategy to break it down. This means starting with the bigger picture — how teams, players or trends are performing — and then finding the best ways to apply that information to different betting markets.
While some of our bets may focus on traditional markets, like spreads or totals, we’ll often explore other opportunities to maximize value.
Houston Texans -5.5 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
As always, we’ll start by examining the team fundamentals and how this matchup is priced, laying the foundation for the rest of our analysis.
Here we have Timo Riske’s chart outlining team performance, weighted slightly toward recent results. The Texans have been one of the best defenses in the NFL this season, ranking No. 1 by a wide margin in defensive strength (above) and No. 2 in EPA allowed per play and success rate allowed.
Offensively, the Texans have been below average, grouped closely with the Jaguars, who have been roughly average on both sides of the ball.
Of course, the Texans will be without C.J. Stroud in this matchup, which diminishes the outlook for their offense. However, working in Houston’s favor is a depleted Jaguars secondary. Travis Hunter and Jourdan Lewis are out, along with safety Eric Murray, and no other Jaguars defensive back has a grade above 64.0.
While the defense has been priced as above average — Inpredictable ranks them 11th — this unit projects to perform well below that level, given the injuries and overall state of the secondary.
The matchup angle
Much of the upside value here lies in the matchup itself, with the Texans’ defense well-positioned to slow down Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars’ offense.
The Texans have been the NFL’s best defense at forcing perfect coverage and creating disruption as a result.
Trevor Lawrence, meanwhile, has struggled significantly when facing perfect coverage.
Lawrence ranks near the bottom of the NFL, losing nearly 0.5 expected points per dropback when facing perfect coverage. Without Thomas and Hunter — and against a defense forcing perfect coverage on 55% of dropbacks — it’s even more likely he faces an elevated rate of those looks, where he’s consistently bleeding production. No offense can sustain success when half its plays carry a baseline loss of 0.5 expected points.
The issues for Lawrence in this matchup extend beyond the secondary. Houston’s pass rush ranks top three in quick-pressure rate, and Lawrence has struggled with sack avoidance over the past month, posting a sack rate near 10%. That has coincided with him holding the ball longer — his time to throw has increased by 0.4 seconds over the second half of the season — as his receivers continue to struggle creating separation.
The result has been more sacks and a stagnant offense. For a quarterback holding the ball too long and struggling to avoid pressure, a matchup with the Texans is about as tough as it gets.
On the other side, we have a very limited sample of Davis Mills since 2022, so the matchup should be approached with some humility. Still, in that small sample, Mills has thrown a quick pass on nearly 60% of his attempts, a rate that would rank near the top of the league. That tendency should help mitigate the Jaguars’ pass rush, which still holds some advantage against a Texans offensive line now without Tytus Howard. On the margins, this is also the healthiest the Texans’ receiving corps has been all season.
The matchup against Jacksonville’s defense isn’t as daunting as perceived, given the depleted secondary and Mills’ ability to get the ball out quickly. Conversely, this is a particularly poor setup for Trevor Lawrence, whose extended time to throw and injured receiving corps make him especially vulnerable against Houston’s defense.
The result should be a Texans offense capable of moving the ball and a Jaguars offense facing a significant downside risk.
