For the first time this century, an alternate is scheduled to play a full slate of matches at the ATP Tour Finals in Turin, Italy. Alternate and World No. 9 Lorenzo Musetti faces Taylor Fritz on Monday in the first round of round-robin play.
Musetti lost to Djokovic in the Pharmaceuticals Hellenic Championship in Athens last week to narrowly fall outside the acceptance line for the Tour Finals. However, following their epic three-hour final in Athens, Djokovic withdrew from the Tour Finals, leaving Musetti scheduled to play in round-robin play from the very beginning of the event in Milan, Italy.
Can Musetti Capitalize?
Alternates Usually Don’t Play
When his round-robin match starts, Musetti will become the first alternate in this century to play a first-round match at the Tour Finals. In the past 10 iterations, only five alternates have played any singles matches in the Tour Finals. Typically, an alternate moves into the draw when a top-eight qualifier withdraws after an injury during round-robin play. Withdrawals usually come after a top player loses a round-robin match.
While participation by alternates is rare in Tour Finals play, victories are almost non-existent. Jannik Sinner is the only alternate to win a Tour Finals singles match in the past ten years. Sinner knocked off Hubert Hurkacz during round-robin play in 2021.
Musetti’s Unique Opportunity
Compared to past alternates, Musetti’s road is different. The Italian star is scheduled to play three matches in round-robin play. Only three times has an alternate even played two matches in the last decade. Despite having more opportunities, Fritz, Carlos Alcaraz, and Alex de Minaur are all incredibly tough opponents. Musetti will need to build on the success of reaching the final in Athens as he plays some of the world’s top players.
Most of the tennis world’s eyes are indeed on Turin to see if Alcaraz or Sinner claims the year-end No. 1 ranking. At the same time, Musetti’s financial opportunity is staggering. Sure, top players eye the more than $5 million available to an undefeated Tour Finals champion, but every match is valuable. Alternates who serve as emergency replacements but do not play are guaranteed $155,000 for waiting in the wings.
Now that he is playing, even if he loses all three matches, the Italian earns over $330,000. Every match win ensures at least an additional $396,500. This money is in sharp contrast to the approximately $79,000 Musetti netted after winning three matches, only to lose to Djokovic in Athens.
Embed from Getty Images
No Promises
Of course, Musetti may quietly bow out after losing three matches to higher-ranked opponents. The field at the Tour Finals is outstanding, and even top ten players frequently lose multiple matches in this event. Still, for up-and-coming stars, the time is now. While alternates are top players, there is no promise they will reach the main draw of the Tour Finals in subsequent years.
Usually, there are two players named alternates to the Tour Finals. In the last 10 years, only four alternates cracked the main draw in the following year. Often, alternates sit on the sidelines and never return. Only twice, David Goffin in 2016 and Taylor Fritz in 2023, did an alternate reach the field and make it to the final match in the following year. More commonly, alternates fall back to the middle of the rankings and never appear again. Is this time different for Musetti? He’s got a chance to break the mold.
Main Photo Credit: John E. Sokolowski – Imagn Images
