TLDR
- Morgan Stanley strategist Denny Galindo says Bitcoin has entered the “fall” phase of its four-year cycle and investors should harvest gains before a potential downturn
- Bitcoin dropped below $99,000 on November 5, falling beneath its 365-day moving average, which analysts consider a technical bear market signal
- Crypto market-maker Wintermute reports that key liquidity sources including stablecoins, ETFs, and digital asset treasuries have plateaued
- US spot Bitcoin ETFs hold over $137 billion in assets while Ethereum ETFs have $22.4 billion according to SoSoValue data
- Morgan Stanley’s Michael Cyprys notes institutional investors increasingly view Bitcoin as digital gold and a hedge against inflation despite its volatility
Morgan Stanley has issued a warning to cryptocurrency investors. The investment bank says Bitcoin has entered the fall season of its market cycle. Strategists are advising people to secure their profits now.
Denny Galindo works as an investment strategist at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management. He spoke on a podcast called Crypto Goes Mainstream. Galindo explained that Bitcoin follows a predictable pattern based on historical data.
Morgan Stanley’s Denny Galindo warns #Bitcoin‘s market may be entering a “fall” phase, advising to secure gains. Analysts predict #BTC could reach $200,000-$240,000. Despite potential downturns, Bitcoin’s fundamentals remain strong.#XPoster #AI pic.twitter.com/RWwHrV2F1U
— Marco Cavallo (@artcava) November 12, 2025
The pattern shows three years of gains followed by one year of losses. He told listeners that fall represents harvest time. This means investors should collect their profits before winter arrives.
“We are in the fall season right now,” Galindo said. “Fall is the time for harvest. So, it’s the time you want to take your gains.”
The main question facing investors is how long this fall period will last. Nobody knows exactly when the next winter phase will begin. This uncertainty makes the timing of profit-taking difficult.
Bitcoin Drops Below Key Technical Level
Bitcoin experienced a sharp decline on November 5. The price fell below $99,000 during trading. This drop pushed Bitcoin under an important technical marker.
The 365-day moving average serves as a key indicator for market direction. Bitcoin trading below this level concerns many analysts. Julio Moreno leads research at CryptoQuant and confirmed the breach.
Analysts use the 365-day moving average to gauge market sentiment. Many consider it one of the most important metrics. The drop below this level generated strong bearish signals across the market.
Bitrue research analyst Andri Fauzan Adziima commented on the situation. He told Cointelegraph that the dip marked a technical bear market. This classification has important implications for traders and investors.
Market Liquidity Shows Signs of Slowing
Wintermute is a major crypto market-maker. The company released a blog post analyzing current market conditions. They identified three main sources of crypto liquidity.
Stablecoins provide the first source of market liquidity. ETFs offer the second stream of funding. Digital asset treasuries round out the third category.
Wintermute’s analysis shows all three components have stopped growing. The inflows from these sources reached a plateau. This stagnation could affect future price movements.
The company tracks these metrics closely. Their data helps explain recent market weakness. Lower liquidity often leads to increased price volatility.
Morgan Stanley took a different view on institutional adoption. Michael Cyprys heads the US brokers and asset managers division at Morgan Stanley Research. He participated in the same podcast as Galindo.
Cyprys said institutional investors are changing their views on Bitcoin. Many now see it as a legitimate portfolio component. The comparison to digital gold has gained traction.
“Some institutional investors view Bitcoin as digital gold or a macro hedge against inflation and monetary debasement,” Cyprys explained. He noted that ETF products have simplified access to Bitcoin exposure.
Institutional adoption moves slowly compared to retail investment. Large investors face internal processes and risk committees. They cannot quickly change their investment strategies.
Portfolio allocations require approval from multiple parties. Long-term mandates guide these decisions. This creates a delay between interest and actual investment.
Despite these barriers, adoption continues to grow. Regulation has become clearer in recent years. ETF infrastructure has lowered entry barriers for institutions.
US spot Bitcoin ETFs now hold over $137 billion in total net assets. SoSoValue tracks these figures. Spot Ethereum ETFs have accumulated $22.4 billion in assets.
