Canada Olympic bubble watch: What we’re hearing about Suzuki, Celebrini, Bedard, more roster hopefuls – The Athletic

TORONTO — The goal for Team Canada’s decision-makers at the end of two days of meeting here is to come away with a significantly scaled-down list of Olympic roster hopefuls from the original list of about 90 they started with in the summer.

General manager Doug Armstrong told The Athletic in September that he was aiming to reduce his management group’s focus to the 35 players who “have percolated to the top” by this stage, leaving about six more weeks of scrutiny and observation before the 25-man roster is finalized heading to the Milano Cortina Games.

That’s two more roster spots than they were permitted for the 4 Nations Face-Off earlier this year — although, in Team Canada’s case, it wound up using 24 players on the way to winning the 4 Nations because Thomas Harley replaced an injured Shea Theodore on the blue line during the tournament.

If there’s a theme to remember in dissecting the roster possibilities for the 14 forwards, eight defensemen and three goalies who will be heading to the 2026 Olympics, it’s that Team Canada has put some obvious value in the 4 Nations roster and that championship performance. So Armstrong and company aren’t starting from scratch here.

Who’s going to make the cut?

Based on conversations with league sources, here’s what we’re hearing.

The trusted veterans

Brad Marchand and Drew Doughty remain decent bets to make Team Canada despite their age.

Marchand, 37, has had a strong start to the season, leading the Panthers in scoring after a spectacular Stanley Cup playoffs. And Doughty, who turns 36 in December and is still the runaway leader in ice time for the Kings, continues to be viewed in a very positive light by Team Canada’s decision-makers. If anything, there was an internal belief that he played better at 4 Nations coming off a significant ankle injury than some gave him credit for.

Beyond that, there’s another critical reason that Marchand and Doughty have added value: their vocal leadership within the group at 4 Nations was felt to be vital to the success of that team. Obviously, Sidney Crosby is one of the greatest captains in the sport’s history, but overall there were a lot of quiet, lead-by-example types in that dressing room. Marchand and Doughty were notable exceptions. They were front and center, keeping things light and helping run the room when something needed to be said, while also soaking up an outsized share of the media responsibilities. It left a lasting impression.

Their on-ice performance still has to carry them to the Olympic team. But all things being equal, the intangibles and experience will give each player an inside track to Milan if they can maintain their standard of play.

Forwards

Crosby, Connor McDavid, Nathan MacKinnon, Brayden Point and Sam Reinhart were already named to the Olympic team in June, leaving nine forward spots open.

Mitch Marner is a lock to stay on from the 4 Nations roster. Sam Bennett has struggled out of the gates for the Florida Panthers this season, but Team Canada management is aware of his back-to-back Stanley Cup performances, and he’s pretty much a lock, too. Brandon Hagel also earned himself a lot of believers at 4 Nations, leaving him nearly a lock, too. Of course, he already had the support of Team Canada head coach Jon Cooper, his coach with the Tampa Bay Lightning.

Marchand, Mark Stone, Seth Jarvis, Anthony Cirelli and Travis Konecny are the other potential holdovers from the 4 Nations group.

We addressed above why Marchand has a good shot of making it. Team Canada came away impressed with Stone at 4 Nations, too. He just needs to get healthy again after suffering a wrist injury last month. Jarvis is off to a good start for the Carolina Hurricanes, which has boosted his case to hold onto a roster spot.

That leaves Cirelli and Konecny as real bubble guys, which has more to do with players pushing from the outside than their own performances. And we would put Cirelli ahead of Konecny in that conversation, given his Stanley Cup pedigree and the fact that Cooper has so much trust in him.

So at minimum, there are three forward spots up for grabs in Milan, and it could end up being as many as four or five, depending on Stone’s health and where the management group lands on guys like Cirelli and Jarvis.

The bubble forwards we believe have improved their stock the most since being left off the 4 Nations squad are Nick Suzuki, Mark Scheifele, Macklin Celebrini and Tom Wilson.

Suzuki’s stock has been skyrocketing since the second half of last season, when he led the Montreal Canadiens to the playoffs, and he’s been absolutely on fire again this fall. He has as many points in regular-season games as any NHL player since 4 Nations (57 in 41 games). Beyond that, Suzuki is seen as the total package because of the trust in his 200-foot game and how he relishes the toughest matchups on a nightly basis. While he probably lost points with Hockey Canada by declining another invitation to the IIHF World Championship in the spring, his game has shot up too far for that to be much of a factor now.

Scheifele was probably the most notable offensive option left off the 4 Nations roster, and it seems to always boil down to where the Team Canada brass sees him fitting in lineup-wise. The top-six roles are largely spoken for. Scheifele has taken strides defensively but isn’t a consistent penalty killer. However, with him again sitting among the NHL leaders in scoring this season, it might be too hard to pass up his consistent offensive production.

Celebrini opened so many eyes when he fit in like a veteran playing at the World Championship as an 18-year-old last spring. None other than Crosby said he deserved to be in the Olympic conversation after that performance. Celebrini has since doubled down by exploding out of the gates for the San Jose Sharks this season and looking like a mini-Crosby in terms of his 200-foot game. We believe he’s playing his way onto this Olympic roster so far. It’s going to be extremely difficult to leave him at home.

There was probably some Team Canada regret that Wilson wasn’t on the 4 Nations roster, particularly for nine specific seconds of a certain round-robin game. But that’s not the most important reason to be looking at him as a possibility now. There won’t be any fighting in Milan. Wilson leads the Washington Capitals in goals and points and is a true unicorn in the modern NHL game. The Olympics will be played on NHL ice. He brings a unique package with size, speed and physicality, to be sure. Whether that convinces enough of the Team Canada brain trust to take him remains to be seen.

Connor Bedard, Wyatt Johnston and Robert Thomas currently qualify as the next three roster contenders. Bedard has played extremely well for the up-and-coming Chicago Blackhawks so far this season — exploding for seven points during a pair of weekend wins — but we just wonder if Team Canada sees fit to have two youngsters in him and Celebrini both on the roster. Management is bracing for a “grown-up’s game” in Milan. It feels like one or the other, and right now the Sharks star is in pole position.

Johnston has improved his stock since the second half of last season, and could make it on, while Thomas was viewed as the bubble player who improved his standing the most after 4 Nations last year. While he hasn’t been helped this season by his NHL team’s struggles in St. Louis and his own part in them, we still think Team Canada loves his overall game and views him as a guy who can be trusted in different spots in the lineup.

Quinton Byfield and John Tavares comprise the next tier of forwards on the bubble. Tavares, in particular, has made a strong statement with his play during the first month of the season.

Defensemen

Cale Makar was named in June, leaving seven defensemen to add on Dec. 31.

We’ve got Thomas Harley, Devon Toews and Josh Morrissey as locks at this point in things. Subject to change, of course, but that’s how we see it in the second week of November.

We touched on Doughty above and why he still has a strong chance. Team Canada was impressed by Colton Parayko and Travis Sanheim at the 4 Nations. Sanheim was probably the biggest unknown to Team Canada brass before the event, and he won a lot of people over with his steady performance. He is also a left shot who can play on either side of the ice — an important piece of flexibility in a short-term tournament — and showed support for the program by going to the World Championship in the spring.

That leaves the talented Shea Theodore as perhaps the only true bubble guy right now.

There’s no guarantee there will be any turnover. Team Canada really liked the group at 4 Nations. But there certainly are players pushing to make it in.

Evan Bouchard, Noah Dobson, Aaron Ekblad, Brandon Montour, Morgan Rielly, MacKenzie Weegar and Matthew Schaefer comprise the list of outside candidates.

There is no more polarizing player on the roster than Bouchard. His greatest attribute, his power-play acumen, is diminished on Team Canada with Makar taking up 90 seconds of every power-play opportunity. On the other hand, as we saw with Makar missing a game at 4 Nations due to illness, would it be prudent to bring him as insurance? The eighth roster spot for the Olympics affords that luxury, maybe? There’s also a strong connection there with Bouchard’s Edmonton Oilers teammate McDavid. We’re not sure where Team Canada will ultimately fall on this debate, but they’re having it.

Dobson has been so steady for Montreal this season that his stock has improved. The same can be said for Montour, who has Stanley Cup pedigree and delivered a strong performance at the World Championship in the spring. He’s also a dynamic skater, making him an under-the-radar name to watch.

Ekblad’s recent championship rings with Florida put him in the conversation, as well. We don’t think Rielly and Weegar have done enough this season to significantly improve their chances.

And then there’s Schaefer, the electrifying New York Islanders rookie who has been simply dazzling out of the gates this season. We don’t believe Team Canada even had him on its IOC long list of players, but just like Patrice Bergeron years ago, Hockey Canada can add him if it chooses to.

People want to compare this decision to when Doughty made the Olympic team in 2010, but there are some key differences. Doughty was 20 then, not 18. He was also in his second NHL season, not playing as a rookie, and had already starred in a World Championship before then-GM Steve Yzerman took him for Vancouver 2010. There’s no doubt Schaefer has opened some eyes, but at this point, we still feel like it’s a stretch for Team Canada to take him over a more proven option.

It’s a fun thought, to be sure. What a talent. And hey, if he keeps this up for the next six weeks, you never know.

Has rookie Matthew Schaefer already shown enoiugh to crack the Olympic roster? (Bruce Bennett / Getty Images)

Goalies

Jordan Binnington, Adin Hill and Sam Montembeault are the 4 Nations holdovers and were the only goalies invited to the orientation camp in August.

However, outside of Binnington, that should not have been viewed as a sign that they held a huge advantage over the rest of the competition. Quite the opposite, in fact.

Armstrong told The Athletic in September that the only reason they brought only those three to camp was that the competition was “so wide open.”

“The other option would have been to invite 10 goalies, which wasn’t conducive to what we were doing at camp,” Armstrong said.

Despite his early-season struggles, we believe Binnington remains a lock to make it based on his body of work and his outstanding performance at 4 Nations. He’s not a lock for the No. 1 job in Milan, but he’s a lock to be among the three goalies chosen by Dec. 31.

Hill’s injury and Montembeault’s early-season struggles, though, certainly open the door to others.

If only there were a long line of Canadian goalies in the NHL to push that door wide open! Yeesh. Canada has a mini goalie crisis on its hands, but that’s a story for another day.

The goalies who could play their way on are Logan Thompson, Darcy Kuemper, Stuart Skinner and MacKenzie Blackwood.

There is no better goalie in the NHL right now with a Canadian passport than Thompson, who many people felt should have been on the 4 Nations roster. He’s been excellent so far and made 23 saves in a 6-1 victory over Binnington’s Blues on Nov. 5. His coach, Spencer Carbery, called it a “statement game” in the dressing room afterward.

Kuemper was third in Vezina trophy voting last year and feels like a safe option, too. Nothing fancy, but he has a floor you can trust. Skinner has gone to back-to-back Cup Finals, but the volatility in his game probably scares decision-makers. Blackwood is just now back and getting his season going. His stock rose last year after 4 Nations, to be sure.

This will be the position on the roster that Team Canada brass will probably deliberate the longest — right up until Dec. 31. Whoever is making saves most consistently over the next six weeks will get a hard look.

But as it stands, it feels like Binnington with Thompson and then either Hill or Kuemper. That’s obviously subject to change!