After a near-miss in Abu Dhabi with one Hojgaard twin, Ben Coley is switching allegiance ahead of the DP World Tour Championship.
Golf betting tips: DP World Tour Championship
4pts win Ludvig Aberg at 14/1 (Betfred; 16-18 exchanges)
3pts e.w. Rasmus Hojgaard at 20/1 (BoyleSports 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
1.5pts e.w. Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen at 40/1 (BoyleSports 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
1pt e.w. Laurie Canter at 80/1 (bet365, William Hill, 888sport 1/4 1,2,3,4,5)
Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook
Three remain in with a mathematical chance of capturing the Race to Dubai, but after Sunday’s blistering 62 for a share of third place, the outcome now feels inevitable – it will be Rory McIlroy, for a seventh time, who collects the Harry Vardon Trophy.
For that to change, Marco Penge will need second place or better and a quiet week from McIlroy in the DP World Tour Championship, where he’s the defending champion with 10 top-six finishes in 14 attempts. Tyrrell Hatton, currently third, would need that figure to remain at 10 for starters, then to win the tournament. The latter might feel more achievable than McIlroy failing to produce.
The other subplot to what’s always a fantastic tournament at Jumeirah Golf Estates is the battle for 10 PGA Tour cards and, fittingly, Jordan Smith occupies the final spot as things stand. A year ago, Smith not only missed out by a single shot, but then had to suffer the secondary blow of 10th-placed Tom McKibbin forgoing his PGA Tour membership after the deadline for it to go to Smith instead had passed.
As with the top of the Race to Dubai, this too lacks a little jeopardy. There are a handful of players who can still muscle their way in but they’re quite spread out now and you wonder just how many points are really up for grabs in this world-class field. Certainly, for Smith and for others directly above him, it will be of comfort to know that McIlroy, Penge and Hatton should gobble up a big chunk between them, not to mention the various other elite golfers who make up this limited field.
The Earth Course, familiar to hardened fans, is notable for being the third-longest in operation on the DP World Tour. At 7,706 yards it’s no surprise that big-hitters have often dominated, though not at the total exclusion of others. That all four par-fives are within reach of the entire field is noteworthy and quality iron players like 2021 champion Collin Morikawa, fellow medium hitter Matt Wallace and the very much short-hitting Alex Bjork have been able to remain competitive.
Still, power should prevail. Last year, those ranked first to seventh in strokes-gained off-the-tee all finished tied seventh or better, a group which included powerhouses like Joaquin Niemann, Jesper Svensson, and McIlroy himself. The other standout drivers were Min Woo Lee and Laurie Canter and the previous year, Nicolai Hojgaard had cut this course down to size, his ball-striking in general of the highest quality. Alongside McIlroy, Jon Rahm is a multiple champion and ever since Alvaro Quiros won here, it’s been clear what long driving can do.
All of this underlines how difficult Mcllroy will be to usurp from top spot in the Race to Dubai standings and he may well defend his title, but after support when betting opened he’s now a fraction shorter than last year despite a similar preparation. The case for backing him then included the absences of Matt Fitzpatrick and Ludvig Aberg, who are both in this field, and it seems beyond doubt to me that coupled with Tommy Fleetwood’s improvement and the emergence of Penge, this is a little bit tougher.
It will be easy to stomach a McIlroy win, perhaps less so Nicolai Hojgaard who, at 30/1, missed out on last week’s play-off by millimetres. His chance absolutely must be respected but the market demands we switch allegiance to his brother, RASMUS HOJGAARD, who has gone from 10 points shorter to a few spots bigger all because of four rounds.
Hand on heart I’ve always been a bit of a Nicolai man myself but Rasmus’s form this year is undeniably stronger, hence why it was him at the Ryder Cup. He has three top-three finishes in his last seven starts and the only time he’s played badly since the Open was when he’d just secured that place on Luke Donald’s side, the effects of which were seen when he couldn’t focus at Wentworth.
Back on the horse with third and 14th in a pair of PGA Tour events, he then stayed on strongly for 23rd in Abu Dhabi last week. Unlike his brother, Rasmus had done nothing in two prior starts at Yas Links to suggest he’s particularly fond of the place and his ball-striking numbers there are not good, so anything he achieved last week can be seen as a bonus.
Here at the Earth Course he’s improved with just about every visit, his form figures reading 51-27-7-11-2 and powered not just by good putting, but by quality approach play in recent years. His driving has been above-average in four of his five appearances and when it comes to form in defeat, it doesn’t get any stronger than being the one player serving it up to McIlroy, which he was 12 months ago.
Granted, it would be nice to have seen him hit his irons better last week but again, Yas Links is less suitable than this place. That he improved his score each day, culminating in a seven-under 65, and wasn’t far behind his brother in scoring across the par-fives, bodes really well for this return to Dubai.
All of Rasmus’s five wins have followed a recent near-miss and with little between him and his twin brother, the price dictates.
Further up the betting, Tyrrell Hatton didn’t do anything like enough last week to be afforded a second chance and at times looked completely lost. He blamed some of his sketchier golf during the early rounds on jet-lag but Sunday’s was harder to excuse and while he’s now three or four points bigger in the betting, that’s not enough around a course which is no more suitable.
Instead, I can’t help but fall into what might be the LUDVIG ABERG trap but must stress I want to be betting all-or-nothing with him, that is to say win-only at the biggest prices, including via the exchanges. I feel sure you’ll be able to take 16-20 from now until tee-off and that’s well worth the risk.
The downside with Aberg is that it’s been a frustrating few months of failing to put 72 holes together, largely because he’s not been able to keep big numbers off the scorecard. Some will view that as evidence of his reputation being undeserved, but I see abundant promise; to my eye, he remains by some distance the most promising young European and will go on to achieve truly great things.
In the here and now, while he’s not managed a top-five finish since winning at Torrey Pines, since July he’s threatened in all seven starts. Three of them have seen him tee off at the weekend in one of the very last groups and that includes the BMW PGA Championship, where he looked like he might justify the same sort of prices he is for this eminently more winnable event.
For context, Hatton’s odds are half what they were, Fleetwood, Robert MacIntyre and Fitzpatrick’s close to that and McIlroy is a couple of points shorter, and while for the most part this reflects good play subsequently, Aberg’s form reads 8-23-9-7-21-20-23. It’s not like he’s been miles away, including on his Yas Links debut last week.
But the main reason for including him here is that I think he’ll fall in love with the course. It is made for the very longest and best drivers and there aren’t many better than him, so this long-awaited (well, sort of) debut in the DP World Tour Championship is early anticipated. It’s not a coincidence that his standout performance on the PGA Tour this year came on its longest course and if he can avoid the silly mistakes that have undermined so much good golf, he’ll go very close.
That can’t be considered a given, but remember he’d been off longer than everyone else prior to last week. The form he showed prior to it suggests Aberg is the same player who beat McIlroy, Scottie Scheffler and the best of the rest on the PGA Tour back in February and having played well in every single DP World Tour start to date, he could be the one to topple the favourite.
Penge was the best driver in the field last week and really is up there among the best in the world off the tee, so he too should relish this set-up. I thought he did well alongside McIlroy over the first two rounds in Abu Dhabi but he did say that Saturday was his worst performance of the year from a mental perspective, which makes me wonder if that draw had something to do with it. They’ll tee off together here, too.
Patrick Reed boasts four top-10 finishes in six starts here, the most recent of them without putting well, and that club let him down in Abu Dhabi. He could go well but his course record is from 2015-2021 and he’s been disappointing in all five starts since an excellent third place at Wentworth back in September. Perhaps this ‘light’ schedule of 30-plus events is taking its toll.
More interesting are Angel Ayora and RASMUS NEERGAARD-PETERSEN and while the former’s recent results are more obviously eye-catching, it’s the latter for me.
Neergaard-Petersen does come here needing at least a top-five finish to capture his PGA Tour card and that’s somewhat concerning, as it’s the sort of distraction a young rookie seeking his first DP World Tour win can probably do without.
However, I was struck most of all by his maturity when speaking with him earlier this year and just as McKibbin and Antoine Rozner stepped up under huge pressure last year, and Matthieu Pavon the year before, he might just be the one to deliver when the chips are down.
Although not as explosive as the Race to Dubai leaders off the tee, Neergaard-Petersen is behind only those two and Ayora in strokes-gained off-the-tee this season and was excellent again in Abu Dhabi last week, where a cold putter and low-scoring conditions combined to keep him out of the frame.
This demonstrably tougher test of ball-striking seems sure to suit and his record in the Middle East already features a win in the UAE Challenge, his second as a pro (all three so far between 14- and 16-under), plus 10th in the Dubai Desert Classic and second in the Qatar Masters earlier this year.
We saw him thrive when 12th in the US Open and his most recent high finish came in Spain, behind Penge, when 15-under won and 10-under got you into the top 10. Just as in Qatar and across town at Emirates, tournaments won in similar scores, Neergaard-Petersen will surely prefer this sort of challenge to the one he faced at Yas Links.
I think he’d be unlucky not to get a PGA Tour card, not least because he was second on that circuit at around the same time he was second on this one, and am prepared to back him to steal into that top 10 and underline his massive potential.
At huge odds I can see Johannes Veerman going well at a course he likes but when it comes to contending alongside some of the best players in the world, PGA Tour-bound LAURIE CANTER is a far better option.
Canter is 11th in the Race to Dubai, sixth among those looking for PGA Tour status, and would need an unfathomable sequence of events to occur to fall short again. In all but name he is now a PGA Tour player and, with such a strong long-game, he could do very well out there if finding some consistency with the putter.
Ironically then it was that club which just about sealed his ascent when he holed from almost 100ft in Korea but it’s been a return to his world-class driving which has ultimately powered second place there and 23rd in Abu Dhabi last week.
Canter looked set for better until making a mess of the final few holes on Saturday, but as with all of my selections this should be much more suitable. He showed as much when contending all the way on debut, as he has in subsequent finishes of 27th (after a very quiet first two rounds) and 14th, again starting slowly last year.
Throughout these three appearances he’s gained on average more than two strokes per round with his ball-striking, ranking second, sixth and ninth off the tee and sixth, second and fourth with his approaches. As with Nicolai Hojgaard last week, the suggestion is that a good set of course form figures could look exceptional but for some issues on and around the greens.
That’s part of the deal with Canter but he ranked 12th in strokes-gained around the green last week and has gained strokes with the putter in four of his five starts since Wentworth, so things really are looking up for one of the finest drivers of a ball on the DP World Tour.
With Middle East form figures of 3-1-35-23 this year plus a pair of Dubai top-fives when he first delivered on his long-held potential, this is the right place to be backing Canter. And, with a PGA Tour card surely now his and odds as big as 80/1, it also looks like the right time.
Posted at 1900 GMT on 10/11/25
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