Maybe it was only a matter of time. The breakout managers waited for, and analysts wanted to be in front of. TreVeyon Henderson happened. It only took injuries to three other Patriots running backs and fending off the ever-challenging D’Ernest Johnson, but it happened. The fantasy points count all the same. He’s got his own entry this week, so we’ll talk about his big performance in just a second.
First, some pleasantries. Welcome back to Fantasy Dreams and Nightmares. You may know the drill. If not, this is a weekly column in which I attempt to make sense of the madness that made and broke our fantasy fortunes.
This is the ninth installment — crazy. Maybe I’m feeling a little grateful, or I’m more sentimental than I thought, but it’s been fun covering the journey. If you’ve followed along, I appreciate you a ton. You’ve made this little labor of love possible, and that’s not lost on me. I hope it’s helped you a little along the way, too.
Before I get too carried away, I’ll turn to Kobe to get us back on track.
While it’s been fun, we can’t reflect yet. We’re in the endgame, now. It’s the stretch run. Everything’s led to this. The importance of every lineup call, waiver claim, or drop is magnified. The samples are large, and the margin for error is small. Have I built it up enough?
You’re ready for the challenge. Rising to it is what will make your eventual title all the more sweet. Whether you’re the one-seed or fighting for the six, the message stays the same.
Job’s not finished.
Did you think you’d get a motivational speech from me this week? I didn’t plan on writing one. It just felt right. That’s the beauty of Dreams and Nightmares. You get a little bit of everything.
I know why you’re here, though. You want some insight into Week 10. What’s real, what isn’t. What hurt, what didn’t.
Ask and you shall receive. Here are this week’s storylines.
Those who kept the faith knew this day would come. The path wasn’t straight. There were peaks, there were valleys. The steadfast managers arrived nonetheless. Henderson was an RB1 in Week 10. He hit two home runs — in the form of 55 and 69-yard touchdowns — and brought dreams to life.
Let’s take a look under the hood. How did it look for the Treyvrolette on Sunday? He’s a Treyvrolette now. He graduated from a Treyota.
Henderson’s Averages in Week 10 Compared to his Season Numbers
Metric
Season (Per Game)
Week 10
Snap Share
41.5%
83.1%
Opportunities
10.6
15
Rushing Yards Over Expected/Attempt
+0.7
+6.7
Expected Points Added/Attempt
+0.02
+0.57
Expected Points Added/Target
+0.02
-0.29 (One Target)
Missed Tackles Forced
2.8
4
Third Down Percentage
37.8%
100%
Half-PPR Fantasy Points
8.3
27.5
The metrics per attempt were going to be significant. That’s what happens when 93 of a player’s 147 rushing yards are deemed over expected. Tampa Bay made it difficult for Henderson, too. His 3.8 expected rushing yards were his lowest since Week 2 against the Dolphins. He logged 10 yards on three carries in that game.
He’s forced 15 missed tackles over the last three weeks, including four against Tampa Bay. That’s a more pronounced sample than a single game. He’s been consistently tough to bring down, while logging a snap share of at least 75 percent in each of the last two games without Rhamondre Stevenson.
Henderson’s Week 10 performance was exciting. While we need to recognize that Stevenson is a variable, it’s also not outlandish to expect Henderson to handle something close to 15 opportunities even when he’s sharing a backfield. You’ve likely been burned by Henderson’s expectations before. Try to keep everything in perspective until we see how things shake out in a healthy backfield. On the other hand, I don’t think it’s crazy to expect more Week 10 usage until there are more mouths to feed.
No disrespect to your car preferences. The Chevy Corvette comparison rolled off the tongue. Maybe Mike Vrabel would lean toward the Camry.
Fantasy Nightmare: The Bills Stumble In Vice City
With the news of the GTA 6 delay, I had to work a reference in here. At this point, what comes first? The Bills get revenge in Miami, or Rockstar finally drops the most anticipated game of all time?
My money’s on Buffalo. As long as they get it done before 2030, we’re cashing.
I think the million-dollar question is what’s made the Bills as sporadic as they’ve been. Is this loss as simple as overlooking the Dolphins? Or does it run a little deeper than that?
Buffalo’s Performances in Wins and Losses this Season
Metric
In Wins (6 Games)
In Losses (3 Games)
Pass Rate
47.2%
58.1%
EPA/Play
+0.20
-0.11
EPA/Pass
+0.19
-0.04
EPA/Run
+0.18
-0.24
Quarterback Pressure Rate
22.4%
36.27%
EPA/Play Allowed
-0.11
0.08
Cumulative Turnover Margin
+7
-5
The Bills are a team predicated on balance. When they win games, they control possession by running effectively. They’ve finished with a pass rate north of 50 percent in two of their six wins this season — one of which was the anomaly of all anomalies in Week 1. Outside of the win over the Ravens, the key has been forcing the Bills to pass consistently. If they can’t run efficiently, the pass rate spikes, which leads to more quarterback pressure and, eventually, turnovers.
Dalton Kincaid was banged up in the loss. He’s arguably been the team’s most reliable pass catcher at one of fantasy’s most barren positions. He’s the Half-PPR TE8 entering Week 11, so his status is a storyline. Khalil Shakir has a compelling case, too. His yards after catch profile suits the low air yardage approach that Joe Brady has leaned on. Still, he’s the WR31. It’s not a skill issue. It has more to do with volume. When his ability after the catch is maximized in a game plan, he’s got a top-12 ceiling. He’s also finished outside the top-24 at the position in six of Buffalo’s nine games. There are few fantasy options with a range of outcomes as vast as the Bills’ pass catchers.
Solely from a vibes perspective, it’s felt like the Bills are due to finally get over the top for a few years now. No fanbase deserves it more. The window is realistically open as long as the team employs Josh Allen. This being the last year at the Ralph, too? If you subscribe to a compelling narrative, it feels like there’s always something to complement the product Buffalo puts on the field.
Patrick Mahomes II is the ultimate villain. Can Allen and the Bills keep that window open and eventually exercise their demons if they’re picking and choosing their spots in the regular season? A five-seed might make that tough.
Fantasy Dream: Jaxon Smith-Njigba was crafted in a lab to win fantasy titles
At the risk of sounding hyperbolic, I think Smith-Njigba might be the perfect fantasy receiver. When a player’s only knock is that his team is simply too good to support a game plan focus for four quarters, there isn’t a problem. Especially when he’s posting WR1 production before Seattle takes its foot off the gas.
Smith-Njigba’s Last Two Seasons
Metric
2024
2025 (9 Games)
Route Participation Rate
92.1%
90.5%
Target Share
23.1%
36.6%
Yards/Route Run
1.9
4.8
Fantasy Points/Target
1.5
2.0
Air Yards/Target
8.8
12.2
Half-PPR Points Per Game
11.9
18.4
It’s supposed to be difficult to be as involved as Smith-Njigba is, while also maintaining a level of efficiency artificial intelligence would be hard-pressed to replicate. Difficult might be underselling it. I’m not sure it’s supposed to be possible. His yards per route run figure has almost quadrupled since last season, while his 36.6 percent share of Seattle’s targets — the most in the league by a sizable margin — is a 13.5 percent spike from last year’s rate.
Consider, also, the leap in his downfield usage, and it all feels more absurd. Smith-Njigba’s average air yards/target is up by 3.4 yards, while he’s added 0.5 fantasy points per target to his 1.5 mark from a year ago.
To put his production in perspective, Tyreek Hill averaged 4 yards per route run on 452 routes in 2023. He’s the only other qualified receiver to crack the four-yard plateau since at least 2018, according to data available by NFL Pro. Smith-Njigba is at 4.8 through nine games.
The intersection between volume and efficiency is the dream for a fantasy production. What Smith-Njigba is doing is something different altogether. We might be watching a historic season unfold in real time.
Fantasy Nightmare: The Giants’ Ongoing War With Leads
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