The Rashtriya Janata Dal and Congress have been out of power in Bihar for around two decades except a few patchy years when Nitish Kumar deserted his NDA partner BJP twice, first in 2013 when JDU quit the alliance over disagreement with Narendra Modi’s prime-ministerial face and secondly in 2022, again joining the Mahagathbandhan after which Lalu Yadav’s son Tejashwi was given the second most position of deputy chief minister in the cabinet led by Nitish.
The RJD may be the longest serving opposition party in the current times which has been pinning hopes on the Muslim-Yadav vote bank, which is more than 30 per cent of the total population. Although a few years in the government gave the RJD some buoyancy to keep its cadre rejuvenated and hopeful, being out of power for most of the time has caused desperation among supporters. The 2025 assembly election of Bihar is seen to be a decisive point for many of its leaders who have been waiting to form government. Therefore, if the exit polls hold true, which show the NDA will come back with majority, it could create churn within the RJD where some of its leaders could be looking for greener pastures, rocking Tejashwi’s ship.
Moreover, the RJD has faced financial issues during its elaborate campaigns against the gigantic election machinery of the BJP-JDU combine. And without coming into power, it will have no access to the funds and cannot further its political outreach. This could also create resentment among its traditional vote bank. Mukesh Yadav from Vaishali district says, “We have voted for the RJD in all the assembly elections. If it has not been able to come into power, it is the party’s problem.”
The Congress could also be on the edge if Mahagathbandhan loses the elections, as there has been a huge influx of inexperienced youngsters joining the party compared to earlier. Senior leaders are also wary about the speed of transition from old leaders to younger ones as it could upset the future balance while out of power. A political analyst said, “Young leaders are restless and more ambitious, when they get positions early they want to jump to more elevated places which in opposition disturbs the rhythm of the party. Therefore, probability wise, there are higher chances of losing ground than progressing in a state where your own alliance partner has a consistent eye on you and doesn’t want you to grow.”
However, Congress and RJD leaders believe that there has been a churn within the economically backward classes and they may have voted for the party. Yet other leaders are skeptical that the alliance did not do enough to attract the section. It should be noted that the INDIA bloc, during its campaigns, carried Mukesh Sahani, the chief of economically backward caste-based party Vikas Sheel Insaan (VIP) Party everywhere to project him as the face of the segment.
An RJD leader says, “The party is hopeful that Mahagathbandhan will come into power this time. Because youth have been vocal about the regime-change and the vote percentage has increased by around 20 per cent. So there must be more than one factor driving these people out of homes to cast votes. One is the Rs 10,000 cash transfer done by the NDA; another is the youth wants a change in the government; and the third is that voters have understood the value of votes and the fourth is online aggression towards the election being created by Prashant Kishor. While there could be many more, these are the driving factors.”
