What we’re hearing at MLB’s GM meetings about the trade market for starting pitchers – The Athletic

LAS VEGAS — By now, you know the names. Tarik Skubal. Freddy Peralta. Joe Ryan. Sandy Alcantara. MacKenzie Gore. All high-end starting pitchers. All candidates to be traded. But the over-under on how many actually get dealt might be lower than you think.

This early in the offseason, teams frequently mask their intentions, making it difficult to know what to believe. Gore, who has only two years of club control remaining with a rebuilding Washington Nationals club under new general manager Paul Toboni, seems a good bet to go. The others? Maybe not.

Let’s proceed one by one:

Skubal

As one Detroit Tigers person put it, “We want to win with him.” Well, 2026 figures to be their last chance. Top Scott Boras clients hardly ever sign extensions when they are this close to free agency.

The Tigers surely could do better in a trade of Skubal than they would through draft-pick compensation if he left as a free agent. But to what end? The Tigers have reached the postseason the past two years, reviving baseball in Detroit thanks in large part to Skubal’s presence. Trading him almost certainly would amount to a step back short-term.

A deadline deal might make sense if the Tigers fall out of contention, but the odds of that happening in the AL Central are slim. And another thing: If the Tigers lose Skubal as a free agent, his roster spot would not become a black hole. The team would try, as best it could, to replace him.

Peralta

Like Skubal, Peralta is entering his walk year. Faced with a similar situation two years ago, the Milwaukee Brewers traded Corbin Burnes to the Baltimore Orioles for shortstop Joey Ortiz, left-hander D.L. Hall and the 34th pick in the 2024 draft.

The difference with Peralta is that he is set to earn $8 million while Burnes was due nearly twice that amount. The modest salary makes Peralta highly attractive to potential suitors, but also quite affordable for the Brewers. They can take the same route with him that they did with shortstop Willy Adames, another player who was essential to the team’s fabric. The Brewers kept Adames until he was a free agent, then received the 32nd pick in the draft after he signed with the San Francisco Giants.

Alcantara

Chances are, the Miami Marlins will trade Alcantara or fellow right-hander Edward Cabrera. But after a 17-win improvement from 2024 to ‘25, club officials are feeling frisky, confident the team can be even more competitive in ‘26. Keeping the rotation intact would make that goal more realistic.

Which isn’t to say the Marlins won’t jump at the right offer for Alcantara, particularly with him guaranteed $17 million this season plus a $2 million buyout on a $21 million club option for 2027.

Alcantara had a 7.22 ERA before the All-Star Game, a 3.33 ERA after. The Marlins know his value. They also know he can help them win.

Ryan

Minnesota Twins president of baseball operations Derek Falvey sounds like a man trying to keep his balance in a hurricane, telling reporters Tuesday, “I remain personally committed to figuring out what are the ways we can add to this group to make it better.”

The question is whether Twins ownership shares Falvey’s desire. It certainly did not at the deadline, when it essentially instructed Falvey to tear apart the club. The addition of two new investors could alter the equation, or at least Falvey hopes it does. Otherwise, Ryan still could be a goner, along with fellow right-hander Pablo López. And if those two go, The Athletic’s Dan Hayes writes that center fielder Byron Buxton could follow.

Waiting on Woodruff

The Brewers’ decision to extend right-hander Brandon Woodruff a one-year, $22.025 million qualifying offer was stunning for a low-revenue team that generally resists paying players big money. Only one player, outfielder Christian Yelich, has received a higher annual salary as a Brewer, $26 million per year from 2022 through ‘28.

Woodruff, who turns 33 in February, has made only 12 starts the past two seasons coming off shoulder surgery and missed the postseason due to a right lat strain that was unrelated to his prior injury. But the market for starting pitching might be so robust, he still might reject the Brewers’ offer.

Interested clubs, in fact, might view the Brewers’ willingness to pay Woodruff a combined $17.5 million for him to barely pitch in 2024 and ‘25 and willingness to sign him for another $22.05 million as evidence of their faith in his health going forward.

There also is this: The qualifying offer for Woodruff is not out of line when compared to the Boston Red Sox’s signing last offseason of free-agent right-hander Walker Buehler to a one-year, $21.05 million contract.

Buehler, after missing all of 2023 recovering from Tommy John surgery, had a 5.38 ERA in 16 starts in 2024 before rallying in the postseason. Woodruff, on the other hand, performed well when available, producing a 3.20 ERA and 26.8 percent strikeout-minus-walk rate that would have been a career best over a full season.

The Buehler deal was the kind a big-market team easily could absorb even if it went awry — and it did, with the Red Sox releasing Buehler in late August. The Brewers, though, view their situation with Woodruff as something of a win-win.

If Woodruff signs elsewhere for more than $50 million, they will receive a draft pick at the end of the first round (if he signs for less than $50 million, the pick would be after Competitive Balance Round B, in the 75 to 80 range). But if Woodruff stays and the Brewers also keep Peralta, their rotation will be in good shape.

“We’re focused on bringing him back,” Brewers general manager Matt Arnold said. “He’s been a guy you can count on in big games for years. He’s maybe the best big-game pitcher that I’ve been around. We’re in a window where we want to be competitive. And we think he can help us.”

Díaz looking for Díaz money

When Edwin Díaz signed his five-year, $102 million contract with the New York Mets in November 2022, it was the largest in history for a reliever. Díaz, though, reached that agreement before becoming a free agent. By opting out of the final two years and $38 million of that deal, he essentially created his first — and potentially last — chance to test the open market.

Díaz, who turns 32 in March, is coming off one of his best seasons, one in which he produced a 1.63 ERA with a 38 percent strikeout rate and 8.1 percent walk rate in 66 1/3 innings. The deal he wants, according to a person briefed on his wishes, is essentially the same one the Mets gave him the last time.

The Athletic’s Tim Britton wrote, “the Mets need to bring back Díaz, however much it costs.” Mets owner Steve Cohen and his wife, Alex, might agree — they are said to be huge fans of Díaz. President of baseball operations David Stearns, however, is known for his discipline. And the free-agent market is deep in late-inning relievers, from Devin Williams and Robert Suarez to Ryan Helsley and Pete Fairbanks to Luke Weaver and Raisel Iglesias, among others.

Díaz, though, is a pitching version of Pete Alonso, proven in New York (Williams and Helsley, not so much). Other teams might be reluctant to meet his salary desires, particularly when the acquisition cost also would include a draft pick after the Mets extended him a qualifying offer. But imagine Díaz on the Toronto Blue Jays, Detroit Tigers or Atlanta Braves, among other clubs. Difference-makers of his caliber are difficult to find.

Marlins, Pirates opening wallets?

Believe it when you see it, but agents say two traditional low-budget operations, the Marlins and Pittsburgh Pirates, are showing a greater interest in spending than in the past. And the heads of baseball operations for both clubs do not deny it.

“We’ve got more flexibility than we’ve had in other offseasons I’ve been in Pittsburgh,” Pirates general manager Ben Cherington said. “There’s a combination of reasons for that. I don’t know exactly where the final number will land, and often don’t — that evolves, even going into the next year.

“But I feel confident that we’ll have a little more flexibility than we’ve had in other offseasons, and we’re going to do everything we can to put that to use, through trade, through free agency, combination, add to the team as much as we can.”

Marlins president of baseball operations Peter Bendix echoed Cherington’s sentiments, saying he was open to free agency as one of the avenues to strengthen his club. The Marlins, in their first year under manager Clayton McCullough, increased their win total from 62 to 79.

“We have put ourselves in a position based on the improvement we made in 2025,” Bendix said. “We think we can put together a really exciting team for 2026 and also continue our quest to build a foundation of talent at all levels that will allow us to stay good for a long period of time.”

The Marlins potentially could upgrade at both first and third base, but are reluctant to block young, internal options at those positions. If, for example, they had signed a left fielder last offseason, it might have deprived Kyle Stowers of the opportunity to develop into an All-Star in his first full season with Miami.

Another possibility for the Marlins, according to a person briefed on their thinking, is to double down on their rotation as a strength and sign a free-agent starting pitcher.

They did that last February, agreeing with righty Cal Quantrill on a one-year, $3.5 million contract. But this time they would aim higher, seeking a mid-rotation starter or perhaps a reclamation project, like Sean Manaea and Luis Severino were when the Mets signed them before the 2024 season.

Another Padres conversion coming?

San Diego Padres general manager A.J. Preller recalls the Texas Rangers successfully converting relievers C.J. Wilson and Alexi Ogando into starters during his 10-year tenure there. But when the Rangers tried the same thing with another reliever, Neftali Feliz, the plan failed, in part because Feliz wasn’t all that enthusiastic about making the change.

In the transitions Preller oversaw with the Padres — Drew Pomeranz, Seth Lugo, Michael King, et al — he made sure each of those pitchers badly wanted to start. So when Preller approaches Mason Miller, Adrian Morejon and David Morgan about the possibility in the coming weeks, he will seek the same type of reaction.

“A lot of times, it’s talking to the individual pitcher and seeing where his head is at, how much he really wants to do that, make that transition,” Preller said. “If there’s a role change for anybody, it’s something that’s going to be important for us over the next 10 to 15 days to make sure we have that dialed in, so they know what direction they need to go to.”

The Padres, facing the losses of Yu Darvish to injury and King and Dylan Cease to free agency, need to find at least two starters. Converting one of the relievers could help fill the void, though it would weaken a bullpen that also could be weakened by a free-agent defection, that of closer Robert Suarez.

Miller and Morejon were known to be potential rotation candidates. Morgan, a former infielder, would be more of a surprise. He didn’t begin pitching until 2022 at Hope International, an NAIA school. The Padres signed him that summer as an undrafted free agent. In 41 appearances last season as a rookie, he showcased two breaking balls and touched 100 mph.

Moving Morgan to the rotation and signing a free-agent starter to go with Nick Pivetta, Joe Musgrove and Randy Vásquez would enable the Padres to keep Miller and Morejon in the bullpen. For a team that traded starting pitchers Ryan Bergert and Stephen Kolek to the Kansas City Royals for catcher Freddy Fermin at the deadline, it might be the best alternative.

The lowdown on Ketel Marte

Yes, the Arizona Diamondbacks are more open-minded to trading second baseman Ketel Marte than in the past, according to sources briefed on their thinking. The reason: The D-backs want to address a number of holes, and a trade of Marte might do that while also creating payroll flexibility for other moves.

Marte, 32, is owed $102.5 million over the next six seasons, not an unreasonable amount for a player who ranks 13th in the majors in fWAR over the past three seasons. The Diamondbacks’ pitching needs, meanwhile, are acute.

The Diamondbacks traded Merrill Kelly to the Texas Rangers at the deadline and expect to lose another veteran right-hander, Zac Gallen, to free agency. Ace right-hander Corbin Burnes and relievers Justin Martinez and AJ Puk, all recovering from Tommy John surgeries, should return at some point during the season, but their timelines and best performance levels are hardly assured.

Center field is another potential area of improvement, though the Diamondbacks could continue with Alek Thomas and/or Jake McCarty, and Jordan Lawlar is playing the position in winter ball. But the team’s offseason focus almost certainly will be pitching.

The Diamondbacks were sixth in the majors in runs last season despite Marte missing 36 games. Trading him, in the estimation of one team source, might be “robbing Peter to pay Paul.” But if ever the Diamondbacks were going to do it, the time is now. Marte in April will achieve 10 years of service, five consecutive with the same club, giving him the right to veto any trade.

The Athletic’s Dennis Lin and Evan Drellich contributed reporting.