Walmart (WMT): Evaluating Whether the Retail Giant Remains Undervalued After Subtle Share Price Movements
Walmart (WMT) shares have been showing some subtle movement this week, prompting investors to take a closer look at the retail giant’s recent performance. The stock’s modest shifts reflect the typical ebb and flow of market sentiment.
See our latest analysis for Walmart.
This week’s minor price dip comes after a steady climb for Walmart. Its 13.8% year-to-date share price return signals growing market confidence, while a 22.8% total shareholder return over the past year underscores consistent longer-term momentum.
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With solid returns and steady growth, investors now face the real question: is Walmart trading at a bargain, or has the market already factored in the company’s future prospects, leaving little room for upside?
Most Popular Narrative: 9.8% Undervalued
Compared to Walmart’s last close at $102.42, the most widely followed narrative suggests a fair value near $113.60, implying significant upside potential if the assumptions hold true. Analysts’ optimism leans on Walmart’s evolving business mix and technology-driven advances, but some see little margin for error at these valuations. Here’s a key insight from the narrative driving this outcome:
Expansion of high-margin business streams such as Walmart Connect (advertising, up 31-46% globally), marketplace, and Walmart+ memberships (global advertising up 46%, membership income up 15%) is diversifying Walmart’s income base beyond retail. This is gradually transforming the company’s profit mix and resulting in structurally higher net margins and earnings over time.
Read the complete narrative.
How does Walmart pull off this premium valuation? The mechanics behind its fair value blend ambitious assumptions about future margin gains, revenue growth, and a profit multiple more commonly seen in fast-growing sectors. If you’re curious which bold projections justify a price point well above today’s close, you’ll want to see how this narrative breaks it all down.
Result: Fair Value of $113.60 (UNDERVALUED)
Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what’s behind the forecasts.
However, persistent delivery and logistics costs or unexpected competitive pressures could challenge Walmart’s margin expansion narrative. As a result, ongoing profitability gains may be less certain.
Find out about the key risks to this Walmart narrative.
Another View: Market Comparisons Tell a Different Story
Looking at how Walmart is valued compared to others in its sector, its price-to-earnings ratio sits at 38.3x, which is well above both its peer average of 25x and the industry average of 19.7x. The market currently expects stronger performance versus competitors; yet the fair ratio is just 35.4x, suggesting there could be risk if enthusiasm cools. Does this premium signal confidence, or hidden vulnerability if profit expectations fall short?
See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.
NYSE:WMT PE Ratio as at Nov 2025
Build Your Own Walmart Narrative
If you see things differently or prefer to dive deeper into the numbers yourself, building your own Walmart narrative takes just a few minutes, so Do it your way
A great starting point for your Walmart research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data
and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your
financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.
Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.
Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Valuation is complex, but we’re here to simplify it.
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