This is unreal, unprecedented. The massive success of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in Bihar must have left the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD)-Congress alliance numb and shattered. This was an election in which it was believed that due to 20 years of anti-incumbency against Nitish, Mahagathbandhan might sail through. Alas, it lost, and lost very badly.
Unlike the 2020 assembly polls, this time, the RJD-Congress-led alliance seemed to be better prepared. Rahul Gandhi had gone on a two-week-long ‘Vote Adhikar Yatra’, and it was evident that Congress workers in the state had felt re-energised after a long time. After Rahul, the RJD’s Tejashwi Yadav also went for a yatra. Over the last five years, both leaders seemed to have grown better prepared to face the Nitish-Modi combination. Still, they failed miserably.
The Signs Were There Already
Is it because the Congress was reluctant to project Tejashwi as the Mahagathbandhan’s chief ministerial face and sent the wrong signal to voters – of two main parties fighting with each other? If that was the perception before elections, how could voters trust them as good governance partners? It is also apparent that the Modi-led Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) hit Mahagathbandhan where it hurt the most. Modi constantly reminded Bihar voters that if Tejashwi became the Chief Minister, then lawlessness would be the order of the day. The RJD did play it safe, and Lalu Yadav was not to be seen anywhere – neither on posters nor as an active campaigner. But it seems voters believed Modi – they hadn’t quite forgotten the ‘Katta Raj’ (gun rule) and the ‘Jungle Raj’ of Lalu days.
This is not the first election in which political analysts and observers have gone so wrong. The election was believed to throw up a neck-to-neck fight, a contest deemed very tough to predict. Though a few were definitely predicting an NDA win, the margin of victory has surprised every one.
Haryana, Then Maharashtra, Then MP, Then Chhattisgarh
One can argue that all this started with Haryana. Nobody believed that the BJP would win, but the results told a different story. The Congress was accused of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. A similar story repeated in Maharashtra, which, ironically, had just months earlier given a severe jolt to the NDA in the parliamentary elections. Even there, the contest turned out to be a Waterloo for the opposition alliance as the NDA went home with almost three-quarters of the seats. The result surprised all, while the crestfallen opposition had no answers as to why it lost so badly. Similar results shocked the opposition and the country itself in Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh.
So, what is happening?
It seems the ruling BJP has discovered a formula to win elections, and the opposition has no answer to it: cash transfers for women in the run-up to elections.
The Women Who Changed The Game
This formula was tested first in Madhya Pradesh, where the Shiv Raj Singh Chouhan government launched the Ladli Behna Yojana, under which Rs 1,500 were transferred to women’s accounts just before the elections. The Election Commission should have intervened to ensure a level playing field for all the contesting parties. But that didn’t happen.
In Maharashtra, where the ‘Mahayuti’ was badly beaten in the parliamentary election, the tables were turned in its favour in just six months. The NDA’s massive mandate stunned not only the Maha Vikas Aghadi but also political observers. The Ladki Bahin Yojana, through which ₹2,500 were given to women, proved to be a game-changer. The same formula was successfully used in Bihar, too.
Six months back, it was argued that strong anti-incumbency against the incumbent JD(U) government might unsettle Bihar. People even believed that Nitish Kumar was on his way out. But Kumar, not particularly known to dole out freebies, showered it like never before this election. To give credit where due, his government has indeed launched several schemes since 2005 that have greatly empowered women. But the Rs 10,000 cash transfer scheme announced on the eve of elections was the clincher. Accompanying this was a promise of 125 units of free electricity, and a pension hike from Rs 400 to Rs 1,100.
Opposition Never Had A Chance
The opposition Mahagathbandhan did realise that the NDA’s ₹10,000 cash transfer scheme could severely dent its prospects. To counter it, the alliance even announced that it’d deposit Rs 30,000 in women’s accounts in January, if elected to power. But perhaps the women believed Nitish more than Tejashwi: money already in hand is much more attractive than a promise.
But let’s also not discount the fact that in this election, the NDA had a much better caste strategy. Learning from mistakes made in the 2020 assembly election, this time, the NDA could effectively accommodate the Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) of Chirag Paswan and the Rashtriya Lok Manch (RLM) of Upendra Kushwaha. The two parties together had bagged almost 7% votes in the 2020 election. Though the Vikassheel Insaan Party (VIP) of Mukesh Sahni left the NDA to join Mahagathbandhan, Chirag and Upendra successfully added enough heft to compensate for any upsets. A section of political observers doubted the trust deficit between the BJP and the JD(U), and between the JD(U) and the LJP, after the experience of the 2020 assembly elections. But now, it is clear that these speculations proved to be merely that. The caste calculations of the Mahagathbandhan, despite the entry of the VIP and the Indian Inclusive Party (IIP), were no match for the NDA. All this finally tilted the balance against the RJD-Congress-led alliance.
Undoubtedly, the Bihar election must have shaken the confidence of the opposition. The hope that was generated by the BJP’s weak performance in last year’s Lok Sabha election has now disappeared into thin air. The opposition ought now to think afresh and introspect why they have failed so spectacularly, against all hopes, to carry forward the momentum of 2024.
(The author is co-founder of SatyaHindi and author of ‘Reclaiming Bharat’ and ‘Hindu Rashtra’)
Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author
