It’s no secret the Portland Trail Blazers are searching for their cornerstone player(s), who can lead them back into perennial playoff and title contention. Early returns on this season suggest auditions for the starring role may be closed.
Last season, Portland finished 23-18 over their final 41 games. Half of a NBA regular season is a solid sample size to examine trends. During this stretch Deni Advija had his coming out party. His averages of 22.1 points, 7.8 rebounds, and 4.7 assists, gave the Blazers hope for a bigger “level up” heading into this season.
HoopsHype put out a preseason cumulative ranking of the NBA’s Top 100 players. It combined their rankings with those from ESPN, SI, and The Ringer. You can find that article here.
Avdija received an overall ranking of 58.
(Note: the Ringer did a later update on their rankings on 10/15 that moved Avdija from 56 to 53.)
If this first month of the season is any indication, Deni is going to make that ranking look silly.
Deni is currently averaging 26.1 points per game, good for 16th in the league. His 6.3 rebounds and 4.6 assists, rank in the mid-40’s of category leaders. His rebounding average just took about a full point hit after pulling down only 1 in Wednesday night’s game against the Pelicans. Look for it to rise back above 7 before too long.
Avdija’s shooting splits of 49/38/85 are excellent, leading to his hyper efficient TS% of .637. That ranks 8th in the league for players who have attempted at least 150 shots thus far (about 15 FGA per game). He has the third most AND-1’s behind Giannis and SGA. His net on/off rating is a huge +19.7! He has been the main engine for Portland’s 6-5 start, which begs the question: Where does Deni net out amongst the very best the NBA has to offer?
Here’s HoopsHype’s cumulative Top 25 player list:
- Nikola Jokic
- SGA
- Giannis Antetokounmpo
- Luka Doncic
- Anthony Edwards
- Wemby
- Steph Curry
- Jalen Brunson
- Donovan Mitchell
- Cade Cunningham
- Lebron James
- Anthony Davis
- Kevin Durant
- Jalen Williams
- Evan Mobley
- Paulo Banchero
- Jalen Brown
- Devin Booker
- Pascal Siakim
- Karl Anthony-Towns
- Kawhi Leonard
- James Harden
- Jimmy Butler
- Bam Adebayo
- De’Aaron Fox
(Injured stars: Embiid 40, Tatum 53, Haliburton 56, Lillard 69, and George 72)
Lebron and Jalen Williams have yet to suit up this season due to injuries, but they are firmly Top 25 players. Banchero and Fox, arguably, are the most obvious to debate out of this group. I’m also ready to move both Anthony Davis and Kawhi Leonard just outside of this group. Of course they belong on this list when healthy for an extended period of time, however, their worst ability is availability.
Over the past 5 full seasons, Leonard and Davis have missed 51% and 37% of total games, respectively. Davis is already out injured indefinitely this season and Leonard is the king of load management, playing in half of the Clippers games so far. They are getting old with basketball injury mileage. While still top players when they play, they are riding too much on past reputation. Their stats over the small sample size of this season are still impressive. Betting on them to be impact players when you need them at this stage of their careers is a pretty big roll of the dice.
Deni isn’t the only player that can make a claim to joining the top 25 this season. Other players of note who should be in the discussion after getting out of the gates strong (followed by their HH Ranking):
Tyrese Maxey (32) 32 ppg, 4.9 rebs, 8.3 ast, TS% .610, PER 23.9
Julius Randle (42) 25.4 ppg, 7.2 rebs, 6.2 ast, TS% .663, PER 25.7
Lauri Markkenan (49) 28.3 ppg, 6 rebs, 2.1 ast, TS% .610, PER 21.9
Austin Reaves (54) 28.3 ppg, 5.1 rebs, 8.3 ast, TS% .628, PER 24.4
Josh Giddey (81) 21.4 ppg, 9.6 rebs, 9.3 ast, TS% .560, PER 20.6
Maxey and Reaves are no-brainers, as both have played at MVP levels thus far, and would bump both Banchero and Fox out of the group. That puts Deni in with Randle, Markkenan, and Giddey to try and knock out the handful of players who are most mentioned in the 24-26 range. Names like Adebayo, Holmgren, Butler, and Harden. I think we need to see more of the season unfold before making definite conclusions.
An interesting comparison is looking at Damian Lillard’s age 25 season vs Deni’s start to this season. (Avdija will turn 25 in a couple months.) Dame averaged 25.1 ppg, 4 rebs, 6.3 assists with a shooting line of 42/38/89. His TS% was .560 with a PER of 22.2. His net rating was +3.0. Lillard was an All-Star and finished 8th in MVP voting. This happened to be the fateful 2015-16 year of overachievement and a quadrupling down financially on a mediocre roster, which hampered the franchise’s ability to build out a true contender.
Deni is positioned to put up a better “age 25” season than Lillard’s statistically speaking. Could he become a superhuman force of nature, taking over games and becoming unDENIable like the franchise’s all-time leader scorer?
Whether Deni will crack the Top 25 of NBA players this season is debatable, but he’s definitely knocking on the door. We’re about to have an end of an era for some of the generational all-time greats. Their spots will be dominated by the likes of Victor Wembanyama, Gilgeous-Alexander, Giannis , Edwards, and Doncic for the next several years. Can Deni join the ranks of the NBA elite? Hopefully so, as the success of the Blazers’ current rebuild project relies on it.
