Late-season football trips to Southern California to play San Diego State are supposed to be a pleasant affair. The sun is still shining, temperatures are still in the 70s and a cool breeze blows in from the ocean.
Usually.
That’s not the case for Boise State’s trip this weekend. For the first time in about four months, rain is hitting San Diego. The National Weather Service has a 100% chance of heavy rain on Saturday, and a flood watch for rivers, creeks and “other low-lying locations” is in effect until 10 p.m. local time Saturday.
The Broncos shouldn’t have to worry about flooding at Snapdragon Stadium when the game kicks off at 8:30 p.m. Mountain time. But Boise State (6-3, 4-1 Mountain West) will need to make adjustments to ensure it’s not washed away on a wet field against San Diego State (7-2, 4-1) in a potential conference-deciding clash.
Temperatures figure to be in the 60s and high 50s, and the playing surface at Snapdragon is Bermuda grass.
“If it’s crappier weather and it’s more run game, that’s why I played football as a linebacker,” redshirt senior Marco Notarainni, a San Diego native, said Wednesday.
The Broncos enter the matchup as slight underdogs, mostly because they’re set to play without their starting quarterback and two of their top wide receivers.
Redshirt junior Maddux Madsen was injured against Fresno State two weeks ago and remains on the sideline, meaning redshirt sophomore Max Cutforth is playing in his stead. The Broncos also are without redshirt senior receiver Ben Ford, who’s out with a season-ending injury, and redshirt junior receiver Chris Marshall, who was hurt in practice this week.
With that in mind, it’s the rain that could play into Boise State’s favor.
The Aztecs suffered their worst loss of the season last weekend, a 38-6 loss at Hawaii in a constant downpour. And although San Diego State’s rushing offense ranks 42nd in the nation (180 yards per game), a rain-soaked, messy game could be what the Broncos need.
“So I’m looking forward to it,” Notarainni said. “They’ve got a great run game with their backs and their O-line. It’ll be interesting to see how much more or less they keep their quarterback in the run game.”
Notarainni was referring to San Diego State junior Jayden Denegal, who has rushed for only 79 yards this season, about 8.8 yards per game. Lucky Sutton is the Aztecs’ primary back, and he carries the load: 172 carries for 898 yards and eight touchdowns.
Boise State running back Dylan Riley gets gang-tackled by the New Mexico defense in a home game earlier this season. Riley rushed for 101 yards in that game and 201 the next week against UNLV, but hasn’t had a big game since. Kyle Green For The Idaho Statesman
After two poor games — 91 yards rushing vs. Fresno State and 134 yards with a 2.8-yard average per rush at Nevada — Boise State will be looking to get its ground attack on point again. That was likely already going to be the case, given that Cutforth is making his first start, but the conditions should exacerbate the need to stick to the ground.
And the player to lead that charge figures to be running back Dylan Riley, who leads the team with 745 yards rushing and seven touchdowns through nine games. Boise State head coach Spencer Danielson said earlier this week that Riley needs to get more touches than he’s had recently — only six carries in the loss two weeks ago — and Riley said he’s ready to take on that responsibility.
Saturday’s game in Southern California is also somewhat of a homecoming for Riley, who grew up less than two hours from San Diego.
“It’s gonna feel like I’m back at home while I’m playing,” Riley said this week. “But with getting the ball, I just believe that it’s gonna be like any other game. We’re just gonna get the ball and do what we need.”
As for dealing with the weather? Riley knows ball security will be paramount.
“You need to make sure you double the ball more, or plant your foot in the ground, and things like that,” Riley said. “But the main focus is to know the game plan and execute my job.”
Boise State and San Diego State stand atop the Mountain West standings, and the winner will place a firm grasp on the regular-season title chase, a prize that allows you to host the league championship game. Several teams — Hawaii (4-2), UNLV (3-2), Utah State (3-2), Fresno State (3-2) and New Mexico (3-2) — are lurking just behind in what has become a wide-open race.
The loser will fall into a second-place logjam with just a couple of weeks remaining, and could need head-to-head matchups and composite computer rankings to determine their future. Those are the first and second tiebreakers, respectively, in the Mountain West.
Boise State at San Diego State
- When: 8:30 p.m. Mountain time Saturday
- Where: Snapdragon Stadium (35,000, grass), San Diego
- TV: CBS Sports Network (Rich Waltz, Robert Turbin)
- Radio: KBOI 670 AM / 93.1 FM (Bob Behler, Pete Cavender)
- Records: Boise State 6-3, 4-1; San Diego State 7-2, 4-1
- Series: Boise State leads the series 6-4
- Betting line: San Diego State by 1.5
- Weather: High of 66 during day, 100% chance of rain
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Shaun Goodwin
Idaho Statesman
Shaun Goodwin is the Boise State Athletics reporter for the Idaho Statesman, covering Broncos football, basketball and more. If you like stories like this, please consider supporting our work with a digital subscription.
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