Week 12 FCS Predictions: UC Davis-Montana State, Lamar-SFA, USD-SIU, Illinois State-SDSU + More

Week 12 of the 2025 FCS season is here, and it features four ranked matchups.

After a 7-3 mark last week, let’s predict some more scores.

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Predictions Record:
2025 Record: 96-32
2024 Record: 126-40

FCS Week 12 Predictions

Week 12 Viewing Guide

No. 9/10 UC Davis at No. 3/3 Montana State Prediction

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UC Davis

Montana St

UC Davis and Montana State face a crucial two-week stretch before Selection Sunday. Davis is 7-2 overall and 7-1 vs. the FCS. Montana State is 8-2 overall and 8-1 vs. the FCS. Both have one currently-ranked win over Northern Arizona — MSU won 34-10, and Davis won 45-24. Next week, the Bobcats travel to rival and No. 2-ranked Montana, while UC Davis has its own rivalry clash at home against Sac State, a team that will be in the playoff hunt if it hits its seventh win this week vs. Idaho.

With seven wins, Davis isn’t a lock just yet for the playoffs. Go 0-2 down the stretch here, and the Aggies could be left out. The Week 0 no-contest vs. Mercer will impact both teams in their playoff positioning. If UC Davis goes 1-1, it is in the bracket with eight wins. Go 2-0, and the Aggies have a strong case for a Top 8 seed at 9-2 overall and 9-1 vs. the FCS.

Montana State looks like one of, if not the most complete team in the FCS right now. The Bobcats have steamrolled their opponents lately. But these last two games are their toughest tests since their first two games. How well do they play in adverse moments? We’ll soon find out. If MSU goes 2-0, it earns the No. 2 seed and gets crucial home-field advantage. If the Cats go 1-1, they’ll likely be somewhere in the Top 8 seeds, perhaps remaining in the Top 4 depending on what happens elsewhere. If they go 0-2, they are still likely in the bracket at 8-4, but may not earn a Top 16 seed.

It’ll be a late-night kickoff in the dark, in the cold, and on ESPN2. Teams have run into a hornet’s nest in these games at Bobcat Stadium. I am excited to see how redshirt freshman QB Caden Pinnick handles the atmosphere, though. He’s been electrifying at times with 1,987 passing yards (20 TDs) and 237 rushing yards (3 TDs). He’s also made some young mistakes with six interceptions.

Pinnick goes up against a top-tier FCS defense. MSU is allowing just 16.1 points per game and 102.9 rushing yards per game. The depth and tackling have been impressive to watch.

Offensively, MSU is as well-balanced as it’s been in several years. Justin Lamson has thrown for 2,026 yards, 18 touchdowns, and two interceptions, plus 412 rushing yards and eight scores. Julius Davis has rushed for 709 yards and six TDs, while Adam Jones has 593 yards and nine scores on the ground.

UC Davis has lost 15 players to season-ending injuries this season, several of them on the defensive side of the ball. That will show as the game progresses.

MSU runs away with this one.

Prediction: Montana State 38-21

RELATED: FCS Bracketology

No. 19/14 Lamar at No. 15/17 Stephen F. Austin Prediction

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Lamar

Stephen F. Austin

SFA looks to secure the Southland’s auto-bid with a win. The Lumberjacks are riding an eight-game winning streak and sit at 8-2 overall (seven D1 wins) and 6-0 in conference play.

Lamar looks to beat its third ranked opponent this season. It is currently 8-2 overall and 8-1 vs. the FCS with two ranked wins over South Dakota and Southeastern. The Cardinals are 5-1 in the Southland standings. Southeastern is also 5-1 in the standings, but has a head-to-head loss to Lamar. Southeastern and SFA do not play this year.

Both defenses have been impressive this season. SFA is especially stout against the run, allowing just 65.5 rushing yards per game (No. 2 in the FCS) while giving up 15.4 points per game (No. 5). Lamar is allowing 21.4 PPG and is coming off a game where it neutralized what had been an explosive Southeastern offense.

The difference here is offense.

The Cardinals haven’t gotten going offensively this year, scoring just 23.8 PPG. SFA’s offense has been strong, scoring 33.9 PPG, although it was without standout quarterback Sam Vidlak last week for unknown reasons. He has thrown for 1,874 yards, 15 TDs, and six interceptions. Kylon Harris is a special talent at receiver, hauling in 55 catches for 634 yards and eight TDs. Jerrell Wimbley adds 774 yards and six scores on the ground.

Expect a lower-scoring game. But SFA’s offense should be able to make it a two-score win.

Prediction: SFA 24-14

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No. 17/22 South Dakota at No. 21/23 Southern Illinois Prediction

This result is going to play a major role on the playoff bubble.

South Dakota is 7-4 overall and 7-3 vs. the FCS, featuring two recent ranked wins over UND and SDSU (who were ranked in the Top 10 at the time). SIU is 6-4 overall with no ranked victories and only five D1 wins.

The Salukis likely have to win out to have a chance at the playoffs, as six D1 wins just don’t seem enough this year. They travel to ranked Illinois State in Week 13.

With a bye next week, USD can stamp its playoff spot by hitting eight wins and ranked victory #3. If the Coyotes lose this week, a 7-5 team with two ranked victories has a decent shot to get in, but USD will be anxiously watching on Selection Sunday.

Counted out multiple times this year, USD has revitalized its season. Aidan Bouman (1,843 yards, 13 TDs, 5 INT) has settled in and looks sharper down the stretch, while L.J. Phillips Jr. has been phenomenal, stepping in for the injured All-American Charles Pierre Jr. Phillips has rushed for 1,464 yards (No. 3 in the FCS) and 14 touchdowns.

I am concerned about SIU’s defense in this one, allowing 203.2 rushing yards per game (No. 113 in the subdivision). However, I think the Salukis find a way behind a spirited offensive effort.

SIU will be a desperate team, and it’ll be at home. The Salukis battled No. 1 NDSU tough earlier this season before a second-half collapse. They jumped out to a 24-7 lead at YSU last week in a ranked matchup, but the Penguins stormed back for a 48-38 win.

While it isn’t an Xs and Os analysis, it just seems SIU is due for a win.

USD fields a strong defense. But I think DJ Williams has himself a day. This year, he’s thrown for 2,384 yards, 18 TDs, and four interceptions while leading SIU with 624 yards and 14 scores.

Prediction: SIU 31-28

No. 14/13 Illinois State at No. 16/15 South Dakota State Prediction

Neither of these teams are a lock for the playoffs just yet.

Illinois State is 7-3 overall and 7-2 vs. the FCS with a ranked win over USD and two ranked opponents still to play (at SDSU, vs. SIU). One more win should solidify a playoff spot. Two more victories, and ISU has a shot at a Top 8 seed.

SDSU is on a three-game losing streak after a 7-0 start. The Jackrabbits own two ranked wins over Montana State and YSU. Another ranked game comes next week at UND. If SDSU goes 2-0, it would likely be a Top 8 seed at 9-3 with four ranked wins. Go 1-1, and the Jacks are in the bracket at 8-4, probably in the 9-16 seed range. Go 0-2, and it’s questionable if a 7-5 SDSU team gets into the field on a five-game losing streak.

After an excellent start, perhaps an even better start than anticipated, injuries to key players have taken their toll on SDSU. An offseason filled with adversity resulted in roster turnover, and the depth behind the starters isn’t at a level SDSU has enjoyed in past seasons. DE Reis Kirschenman, LB Chase Van Tol, WR Lofton O’Groske, OT Sam Hagen, and QB Chase Mason are All-MVFC-level players sidelined with injuries.

The status of Mason is unknown this week, but he seems questionable to play.

An SDSU defense that has given up some explosive plays is worrisome against ISU standout QB Tommy Rittenhouse and WR Daniel Sobkowicz, plus running backs Wenkers Wright and Victor Dawson. Wright didn’t play last week, but is expected to return this week.

With that said, I think SDSU finds a way to win this one. Even if No. 3 QB Jack Henry has to lead the way, which the offense showed a bit more potential last week with him in the lineup, the Jacks scheme up enough plays while the defense generates enough stops to earn a victory in front of their home crowd.

I didn’t have much confidence in SDSU winning last week. This week? Something tells me SDSU comes out with a win.

Prediction: SDSU 24-21

More FCS Predictions

RELATED: HBCU Preview & Predictions

For breakdowns of how Week 12 games impact the playoff picture, check out this article.

Idaho at Sacramento State
Prediction: Sac State 31-24

No. 11/9 Rhode Island at Maine
Prediction: Rhody 28-24

Stony Brook at No. 10/7 Villanova
Prediction: Villanova 24-17

Penn at No. 7/11 Harvard
Prediction: Harvard 35-21

CCSU at Duquesne
Prediction: CCSU 21-14

Charleston Southern at UT Martin 
Prediction: UT Martin 28-17

NR/No. 25 Lafayette at Richmond 
Prediction: Lafayette 27-21

Drake at Dayton
Prediction: Drake 24-17

Chattanooga at No. 8/8 Mercer
Prediction: Mercer 35-28

ETSU at No. 25/NR Western Carolina
Prediction: WCU 38-31

Central Arkansas at Southern Utah
Prediction: SUU 31-21