While European giants like England and France have already booked their tickets to the 2026 FIFA World Cup, the final matchday of UEFA qualifying is shaping up to be one of the most dramatic in years. Several powerhouse nations still have work to do, unlikely contenders are on the brink of historic breakthroughs, and a few big names are staring at real danger. As the standings tighten and the stakes rise, Europe’s last round of qualifiers promises tension, chaos, and late-night scoreboard watching across the continent.
France and Croatia Join England as Qualifiers
England became the first European nation to secure a World Cup berth, remaining perfect at 7-0-0 without conceding a single goal. Albania sit second in Group K—an impressive run for a team fresh off an appearance at the last Euros. Their latest 1-0 win over Andorra secured a playoff place and extended their winning streak to five matches. England’s 2-0 victory over Serbia officially eliminated the Balkan side, meaning Juventus striker Dusan Vlahovic will miss the World Cup.
Croatia’s consistent excellence continues: they are unbeaten in seven matches and qualified comfortably. The Czech Republic are second in the group, while 40-year-old Luka Modric looks set for yet another World Cup appearance with his beloved Croatia.
France, meanwhile, dominated their group exactly as expected. A 4-1-0 qualifying record secured their ticket ahead of Iceland. Ukraine and Iceland will now meet on November 16th in Warsaw for the pivotal second-place finish. France handled business throughout qualifying, including the most-recent commanding 4-0 win over Ukraine where Kylian Mbappé scored twice.
Germany Host Slovakia in Leipzig to Decide Group A
Slovakia’s 2-0 win at home in September over Germany ensured a dramatic finish in Group A. Both sides enter the final matchday level on points, though Slovakia trail the goal differential by three. The decisive match in Leipzig could send shockwaves through qualifying.
If Slovakia pull off another upset, they’ll qualify directly for the World Cup. A Germany win—expected by most—would push Slovakia into the playoffs. Newcastle’s Nick Woltemade scored twice in Germany’s key win over Luxembourg, while Slovakia needed extra time to slip past Northern Ireland.
Bosnia vs Austria and Denmark vs Scotland: High Stakes for World Cup Berths
The tightest dramas reside in Groups C and H.
In Glasgow, Scotland must beat Denmark to qualify for their first World Cup since 1998. Denmark hold a one-point lead and bring a deeper squad featuring Napoli’s Rasmus Højlund, Arsenal’s Christian Nørgaard, and Barcelona’s Andreas Christensen. At 39, Kasper Schmeichel remains in goal. Scotland counter with Liverpool’s Andy Robertson, Manchester United’s Scott McTominay, and Torino striker Che Adams.
Denmark squandered a chance to qualify early with a disappointing draw against Belarus, conceding midway through the second half. Scotland couldn’t capitalize on their own opportunity either, falling 3-2 to Greece despite playing much of the match with a man advantage. They’ll need a vastly improved performance to shock Denmark at Hampden Park.
In Group H, Austria sit on 18 points, two clear of Bosnia. Marko Arnautović—now at Red Star Belgrade—scored twice in a win over Cyprus on the 15th. Bosnia responded with a 3-1 victory over Romania powered by a goal from 39-year-old Edin Džeko. Bosnia must win in Vienna to qualify, while Austria need only a draw to reach their first World Cup since 1998. Bosnia’s lone World Cup appearance as an independent nation came in 2014.
Norway, Switzerland, Spain and the Netherlands Effectively Qualified
Erling Haaland’s Norway are poised to end decades of international frustration. Undefeated with a staggering +29 goal differential, they are virtually assured of qualification. Italy sit second at +12 and would need an impossible scoreline to overtake Norway. Haaland scored twice in a 4-1 win over Estonia that effectively sealed it. Italy will remain favored in the playoff path regardless of their match at San Siro.
In Group B, Switzerland dismantled a struggling Sweden side 4-1, pushing their goal difference to +11 ahead of second-place Kosovo. With four different goalscorers and their trademark discipline, Switzerland need only to avoid a heavy defeat against Kosovo on November 18th. Kosovo are second, while Sweden—on one point—head to the playoffs via the Nations League.
Spain remain flawless at 5-0-0 and sealed qualification with a 4-0 win over Georgia. Their upcoming match against Turkey is effectively a dead rubber; even a Turkish win won’t overturn the goal-difference gap. Turkey have otherwise been solid, with their only loss coming against Spain.
The Netherlands, a former World Cup finalist, are in a similarly comfortable position. Memphis Depay’s key goal secured a draw against Poland, all but guaranteeing the Dutch a place in the tournament. Poland will head to the playoffs, while the Netherlands should qualify even if they lose their final match thanks to their strong goal differential. Poland managed to frustrate the Dutch twice but ultimately fell short in the group.
Belgium and Portugal Have Reasons for Concern
Cristiano Ronaldo’s Portugal failed to clinch early after a stunning 2-0 loss to Ireland in Dublin. Ronaldo’s red card means he’ll miss the next match, while Portugal failed to score despite 28 shots. With Bruno Fernandes and João Neves in midfield, the performance raised real questions. Portugal now host Armenia in Porto; a win secures qualification, but a draw could leave the door open if Hungary deliver a big result against Ireland on November 16th. Hungary’s earlier draw against Portugal kept the group alive, but Portugal are still expected to finish the job. Armenia sit 1-0-4 and have struggled throughout.
Ireland also remain alive—a win over Hungary puts them into the playoffs, while an unlikely combination of a huge Irish win and a Portugal loss could even send them directly to the World Cup.
Belgium, meanwhile, continue to underwhelm. Hans Vanaken’s late goal salvaged a point against Kazakhstan, but the performance added to concerns about the team’s lack of urgency. Belgium still control their destiny as they host winless Liechtenstein on November 18th. At 4-3-0, they sit two points ahead of North Macedonia and Wales. The winner of Wales vs North Macedonia could sneak into an automatic berth if Belgium somehow falter, but Belgium remain strong favorites to finish the job.
Final Thoughts
The final matchday of UEFA World Cup qualifying has all the ingredients—heavyweights under pressure, underdogs chasing history, and enough mathematical chaos to keep fans engaged. Some of Europe’s biggest names still have everything to play for, while others are clinging to their last chance. By the end of the night, dreams will be made, heartbreak will be everywhere, and the full picture of Europe’s road to 2026 will finally come into focus.
Main Photo Credit: IMAGO / Action Plus
