The insanity of World Cup qualifying was on full display Saturday as UEFA wrapped up its penultimate matchday of the 2026 World Cup cycle.
MORE — UEFA World Cup qualifying fixtures, results, tables
Denmark opened the door to Scotland by drawing Belarus, but the Scots were shocked by already-eliminated Greece. Romania took a lead on Bosnia and Herzegovina to give Austria a shot at qualifying on Saturday but gave the lead away when a substitute saw red three minutes after entering the fray.
It joined Cristiano Ronaldo’s red card versus the Republic of Ireland and Belgium’s surprising draw at Kazakhstan in leaving just three automatic berths sealed with one matchday to go in each group (though some spots are in technically the balance but pretty academic).
Which European nations have already qualified for the World Cup?
England, Croatia and France have qualified for the World Cup as group winners.
Which European clubs would have to suffer an historic collapse to miss the World Cup?
Norway will advance as Group I winners as long as they don’t go to Italy and lose to the Azzurri by nine goals.
Spain will advance as Group E winners provided they don’t lose to visiting Turkiye by seven goals.
Switzerland will advance as Group B winners as long as they don’t lose away to Kosovo by six goals.
Which groups look in the balance, but probably aren’t?
Group A, where Germany host Slovakia with a three-goal advantage in goal differential and four-goal advantage in total goals. Slovakia would need to win 4-0.
Group F should be Portugal’s group. They have a two-point lead on Hungary and a three-point lead on the Republic of Ireland. Those two play each other on Sunday in the final day, and a draw there would be enough for Portugal. And a win over Armenia, who are 1W-4L and have not scored away from home in qualifying, would do the trick. And even if Portugal slumped to a draw there, Hungary would need to beat Ireland by 3-4 goals to win the group.
Netherlands have a three-point lead on Poland in Group G after the sides drew on Saturday, and they boast a 13-goal lead in differential. Poland go to Malta and may well chew up that goal differential a bit, but the Dutch getting blown out at home by bottom-dwelling Lithuania would be an absolute stunner.
Which groups have the highest chances for chaos/upsets/drama?
Group H. Austria are home to Bosnia and Herzegovina and have a two-point lead on BNH. A draw will do it for the Austrians, so BNH will come with vigor for all three points.
Group J. Belgium are strong favorites to win the group with a two-point advantage and vastly superior goal differential over North Macedonia and Wales, who play each other in Cardiff. The Red Devils, however, have struggled in big spots before and just stumbled to a 1-1 draw with Kazakhstan in Astana. There’s no guarantee they beat last-place Liechtenstein, who scrapped hard but lost 1-0 to Wales on Saturday.
Group C could be great drama or not at all. Scotland host Denmark and need to beat the Danes, who will be favored in terms of quality and because a draw will do the trick for them. If Scotland go down early, Denmark might roll. But if Scotland can take a lead and shut up shop in front of Craig Gordon? They did draw 0-0 in Denmark.
What groups have a third-place team that can still move into second place and advance to a second round playoff spot?
Group D has been won by France but second-place Iceland and third-place Ukraine are both on seven points. Iceland have +4 goal differential to Ukraine’s -3, so Ukraine have to win at home to Iceland: a draw won’t do anything for them.
Neither Hungary (8 points) nor Republic of Ireland (7) will be expecting Portugal to lose at home to Armenia and open up first place, but they’ll know beating each other at the Puskas Arena in Budapest would give them second place (and first if Portugal shock the world with a loss).
Wales and North Macedonia are both going to the second round via their Nations League rating, but the winner of their match would have a much easier run in their path and capitalize on an unlikely Belgium nightmare versus Liechtenstein.
