Available exclusively to PFF+ members in the PFF app, the PFF Player Prop Tool harnesses the power of predictive analytics and matchup data to help you make smarter, faster and more confident picks. Download the PFF app now — available on the Apple App Store and Google Play Store.
Many NFL bettors start by looking at individual markets — like spreads, totals, teasers or props — and ask, “Which spread looks good?” or “What totals stand out this week?” This is a bottom-up approach, where you focus on specific bets first.
In this space, we’ll take a different approach. We’ll focus on one game each week and use a top-down strategy to break it down. This means starting with the bigger picture — how teams, players or trends are performing — and then finding the best ways to apply that information to different betting markets.
While some of our bets may focus on traditional markets, like spreads or totals, we’ll often explore other opportunities to maximize value.
Chicago Bears (-5.5) @ Minnesota Vikings
As always, we’ll start by examining the team fundamentals and how this matchup is priced, laying the foundation for the rest of our analysis.
Above are the team efficiency tiers, courtesy of PFF’s Timo Riske, which suggest that the Bears have a quietly solid offense and a poor defense, while the Vikings have been above average on defense but have struggled offensively. A chart of EPA or any other efficiency metric will likely tell the same story.
To assume these teams are roughly even — as the market does while accounting for home-field advantage — implies the Vikings defense is strong enough to neutralize Chicago’s offense and that the Vikings offense will benefit.
A deeper look at the Vikings defense paints a far less encouraging picture. Since the team’s bye, they have been one of the league’s weakest pass defenses, ranking third-worst in yards per dropback allowed at 7.2 and third-worst in EPA per dropback allowed at 0.3. Injuries have played a role, but this remains a banged-up group, and its recent performance has slipped well below its season-long baseline. When weighing the more relevant data points, the fundamentals suggest there may be value here.
As for the matchup, the defining question for any offense facing the Vikings is how well it holds up against the blitz. Since the bye, Minnesota has dialed up pressure on an outrageous 64% of snaps, by far the highest rate in the NFL.
For Caleb Williams and the Bears offense, this has been an area of real strength, with an EPA nearly 0.2 higher when facing the blitz than when not. Paired with a run game that ranks third in EPA per rush and success rate over the last six weeks, the Bears have a sneaky good setup on offense.
On the other side of the ball, much of the market price, as discussed, stems from how poor Chicago’s defense has been throughout the season. But this has not been a matchup J.J. McCarthy has been able to exploit.
When McCarthy has been in favorable situations or plays with no disruptors, he has struggled badly.
McCarthy has “destroyed” a league-high 65% of plays with no disruptions by either delivering inaccurate throws, taking a sack or scrambling for negative expectancy. And when the defense has done its job, he has not been able to create or generate offense.
So, while the Bears defense has been torched on plays with no disruption, allowing 0.72 EPA per play, this is not a spot McCarthy has been able to take advantage of.
Once again, on plays with no disruption, he has barely been able to generate positive EPA per play despite the league’s baseline offensive success sitting at 0.3 on these snaps. McCarthy has shown no ability to win against poor defense, making this matchup far less appealing.
Add it up, and this becomes a spot where the Vikings defense is overrated and where Caleb Williams is positioned to have success against the blitz. On the other hand, a struggling Bears defense is matched with a quarterback who has been unable to capitalize, often destroying plays and failing to win when the defense is not disrupting, which is precisely where the Bears have been hurt this year.
