Can Josh Allen keep carrying the Bills? Are the Bears for real? Our experts’ Week 11 takeaways
Each Sunday, three of The Athletic’s NFL writers react to the biggest news, plays and performances from the day’s games.
Comebacks were on the NFL’s menu in Week 11. Caleb Williams and the Chicago Bears needed a fourth-quarter rally yet again, walking off the Minnesota Vikings with a game-winning field goal. Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills went back and forth with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers before pulling away by scoring the game’s last 13 points. The Miami Dolphins, Carolina Panthers, Houston Texans and Green Bay Packers all won from behind as well.
NFL writers Mike Jones, Ted Nguyen and Dan Pompei share their thoughts on a Week 11 in which the early games were merely appetizers for some heavyweight showdowns later in the day.
The Bills rallied past the Bucs at home, but their defense got gashed again, giving up at least 30 points and 195 rushing yards for the second game in a row. Is Allen enough to overcome a defense like that?
Nguyen: Allen can overcome it in the regular season and maybe win a playoff game, but it’s hard seeing them going far with this defense as bad as it is. If you can’t stop the run in December, you’re going to have a hard time winning games. A great quarterback could make it a coin flip, but the Bills’ offense has had issues as well. If they can’t run the ball, or fall behind and have to throw, they don’t have the pass catchers to support Allen. Dalton Kincaid is their best pass catcher, but he shouldn’t be a No. 1 option. Allen is putting a lot on his shoulders and the Bills’ 7-3 record is a reflection of how incredible he is, but unless he’s accounting for six touchdowns a game like he did against Tampa Bay, the Bills are going to be in a lot of toss-up-type games.
Pompei: Allen can erase a lot of problems — he already has in multiple games this season and he did it again Sunday. But no quarterback can overcome a defense that consistently gives up points and rushing yards the way the Bills recently have. It should be pointed out that it wasn’t Jonathan Taylor gashing the Bills Sunday — it was Sean Tucker, who not long ago was thought to be a third-stringer on the Bucs’ roster fringe. The Bills have aspirations — legitimate aspirations — to beat the best in the NFL and win a championship. For that to happen, though, they will need to tighten up defensively.
Jones: Allen is a beast. There’s a reason why he’s the reigning MVP and is annually in the conversation. But the toothless nature of the Bills’ defense is the reason I don’t view them as true Super Bowl contenders. And it’s not just me. In the last week, I picked the brains of multiple talent evaluators who have scouted Buffalo this season and the general consensus was that there’s too much on Allen, and that the Bills’ defense can’t be trusted. Allen has to play at an all-world level for Buffalo to beat most playoff teams, and that’s a huge ask. The Buccaneers are riddled with injuries and still managed to accumulate 32 points and 367 yards. How much worse would that gashing have been if Tampa Bay was at full force?
J.J. McCarthy struggled again in a 19-17 loss to the Bears. The Vikings have failed to crack 20 points in three of his last four starts. What is going wrong, and what’s your level of concern?
Pompei: McCarthy looked lost and rattled for most of the day. But with the game on the line, he played more like the analyst calling the game on Fox often did (the guy with seven Super Bowl rings). McCarthy played so well on what could have been the game-winning drive that the Vikings have to believe he can make significant improvements in the coming weeks. It’s easy to forget he’s had only five NFL starts (the Vikings have won two of them). That being said, they have no chance to compete for a playoff spot unless they get more consistency from McCarthy and the offense.
Jones: It depends on what we’re deciding to be concerned about. If we’re talking about the Vikings’ ability to win their division or snag a wild-card bid, then yeah, I’d say their situation is concerning. But the Vikings need to be realistic. This season isn’t about Super Bowl contention. It’s about McCarthy making up for a rookie season lost to knee surgery, and developing to the point where next year, he has a strong base and can deliver game-changing plays and give Minnesota a chance to contend. The Vikings have been caught in this tug of war — wanting to win in the short term, versus laying a foundation for the future. Yes, you want to win every game, but you’re going to take your lumps with what is essentially a rookie quarterback. He’ll look great some weeks, awful other weeks, promising in others. It’s just the nature of the beast. If they wanted to contend for a playoff berth or a Super Bowl shot this year, they should have paid Sam Darnold.
Nguyen: McCarthy is a tick slow with his reads, but he’s having a lot of trouble throwing to his left. This was an issue in college and it’s showing up over and over again. He missed quite a few big plays with wide-open receivers to that side, including an interception on an underthrown ball. Poetically, he threw a go-ahead touchdown to that side, but Jordan Addison was wide, wide open. This is a mechanical issue that may not be able to get fixed during the season, but it’s something he absolutely has to address. Right now, he just needs experience seeing the field, making reads and getting a feel for NFL timing.
On the other side of that game, Williams and the Bears pulled out another messy win. They’ve now won three straight games by a single score. Is this a fluke, or something sustainable?
Jones: I don’t think seven wins in the last eight games — and how the Bears are winning them — is flukish. I think we’re seeing a work-in-progress team make steady strides forward under its first-year head coach and his staff. They are learning how to win games in a variety of ways. We’ve seen blowouts, we’ve seen comebacks and now we’re seeing them pulling off gritty wins. Williams’ completion percentage wasn’t great on Sunday, but he was going against a tough Brian Flores defense for the second time this season. He did, however, take care of the football, and that matters. The Bears’ rushing attack is clicking, and that eases pressure on Williams, while the defense forced two interceptions and denied Minnesota on 8 of 11 third downs. Chicago also received help in the return game. This is complementary football. How far can this take them? I think they can go toe-to-toe with the Detroit Lions and Packers, who are both talented yet inconsistent. The playoffs aren’t at all far-fetched.
Caleb Williams and the Bears got another win, while J.J. McCarthy’s fourth-quarter heroics weren’t enough. (Ellen Schmidt / Getty Images)
Nguyen: Winning a bunch of one-score games is unsustainable. We’ve seen teams have their one-score luck reverse to the mean over and over again, with the most recent example being the Kansas City Chiefs, who broke the record for most one-score wins last season. This year, all four of Kansas City’s losses entering this week had been by one score. The good news for the Bears is that they can reasonably expect to get better. Williams is only in his second season and first year in Ben Johnson’s offense. The defense is showing signs of improving and should expect to acquire more talent in the offseason. Going from as bad as they were last year to competing the way they are now is a great sign.
Pompei: The Bears have had a run of good fortune, thanks partly to the NFL schedule makers. Soon, they will be challenged in ways they have not been. But they should be credited for winning games that are winnable. It’s a testament to the leadership, game planning and play calling of Johnson, who has made a lot of players better on offense. The Bears have been outstanding at not beating themselves, which puts them in a category with the best in the league. But they are a flawed team that is dependent on out-turnovering their opponents, and they have obvious vulnerabilities on defense and special teams.
After the Jaguars beat the Chargers and the Steelers topped the Cincinnati Bengals, Jacksonville, L.A. and Pittsburgh all have four losses. Which has the best chance at landing an AFC playoff spot?
Pompei: The Jaguars might not be the best of the three teams, but they might have the best chance of making the playoffs, given their remaining schedule and the forgiveness of the AFC South. Jacksonville is likely to be favored in four of its remaining seven games. If the Jags win those games, they’ll finish 10-7 with a tie-breaker advantage over the Chargers. The Steelers will be dangerous to any opponent if Aaron Rodgers is healthy — but keeping him healthy will be more challenging as the season goes on. As good as Justin Herbert is, he needs more help from his depleted offensive line. Herbert has been sacked 35 times already.
Nguyen: The Jaguars have the easiest schedule, but I also liked how clean of a game they played offensively on Sunday, swamping the Chargers 35-6. Coach Liam Coen used the drinking-through-the-water-hose approach when installing his offense. He didn’t start with the basics before adding on. His offense involves a ton of pre-snap movement and communication, and the Jaguars were initially getting flagged for offensive pre-snap penalties at the highest rate in the league. Sunday, they didn’t have one offensive penalty and the operation looked so much cleaner, which contributed to their best offensive outing against a good Chargers defense. The Steelers’ defense looks improved, but their offense is just too inconsistent and Rodgers suffered a left wrist injury on Sunday. The Chargers’ injuries just might be too much to overcome, and Herbert is just getting hit too much for them to sustain their 7-4 record.
Jones: Right now, I’d say the Steelers have the best chance. But some of this depends on Rodgers’ health. The Steelers have a tough final stretch of the season, and although they got the job done with Rodgers on the sideline, it did come against the Bengals, who were without their top two pass rushers and are limited on offense with Joe Burrow still sidelined. And even with Rodgers, the Steelers’ defensive inconsistencies might cause them to run out of gas. But for now, I’ll say they have the best chance, as long as they have Rodgers. The Chargers are on the verge of collapse under the weight of all their injuries. I’m still not sold on Jacksonville, which entered Sunday’s game having lost three of its last four. This was a good win against a wounded opponent, and maybe the Jaguars can build on this. They do have a chance because of their schedule. But they also still have two games remaining against the Indianapolis Colts and one against the Denver Broncos.
