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Liberals have already survived two confidence tests on the budget, with Monday’s vote set to be the last.Sean Kilpatrick/The Canadian Press
The federal government is expecting the budget to pass a final confidence test by a slim majority Monday as Liberals work behind the scenes to corral enough opposition votes to avert an election.
A senior Liberal told The Globe and Mail Sunday that Prime Minister Mark Carney does not have the votes at this point to win a confidence vote.
But the official said the Liberals are confident that some members of the three opposition parties will blink. There is no appetite for an election in the country and none of the parties have assembled election-readiness teams, the official added.
Two NDP sources told The Globe that up to five of the seven New Democratic MPs are expected to vote against the budget, including leadership candidate Heather McPherson. But the sources said interim party leader Don Davies and B.C. MP Gordon Johns are expected to abstain. Quebec MP Alexandre Boulerice is another New Democrat who could abstain, the sources said.
The Liberals would need at least four opposition MPs to either abstain or not show up to vote for the budget to pass, if no opposition MPs voted for it.
One of the NDP sources noted that New Democratic MPs vote last, so they can make a final decision on whether to abstain or not based on whether some other opposition members decide to abstain or miss the vote. The source added that Mr. Davies does not want to lead the NDP into an election.
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The Globe is not identifying the Liberal and NDP sources, who were not authorized to discuss Monday’s budget-vote discussions.
On CTV’s Question Period Sunday, Defence Minister David McGuinty expressed confidence that the budget will pass.
“I have hope in the team through my House Leader’s office that they are working hard to negotiate their way forward. I hope that all of us can come together and pass such an important budget.”
If the government was defeated on a budget vote, the country would be forced into an election, seven months after Canadians gave the Liberals a strong minority – just three seats shy of a majority.
The Liberals are now two votes short of a majority after Nova Scotia Conservative MP Chris d’Entremont crossed the floor to join their caucus.
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The Liberals have 170 seats but House of Commons Speaker Francis Scarpaleggia, who is a Liberal MP, can’t vote except in the case of a tie.
Green Party MP Elizabeth May said she is in discussions with the government about voting to pass the budget and avoiding an election.
“I know Canadians do not want an election,” Ms. May said in an interview. “I’ve had very good conversations, but my vote has yet to be determined.”
Mr. Davies and Mr. Johns could not be reached for comment. But Mr. Davies mused after the budget was presented that it’s possible some NDP MPs would opt to vote neither for nor against the budget.
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The budget outlined a plan for more than $140-billion in new spending over five years, partly offset by about $60-billion in internal savings over the same period. Cuts to the public sector are opposed by the NDP, but the budget also contains measures to create well-paying union jobs in construction and other trades.
The Carney-led government has already survived two confidence tests on the budget. Monday’s vote is the final confidence vote.
Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre and Bloc Québécois Leader Yves-François Blanchet have said their parties would vote against the budget.
But it’s unknown if all of their MPs will toe the party line. Conservative MP Matt Jeneroux, who announced that he would resign in the spring, did not vote in the last two confidence votes.
The budget included spending for projects in Conservative and Bloc ridings. On Thursday, Conservative MP Gaétan Malette showed up with Natural Resources Minister Tim Hodgson at the announcement of a new nickel mine in Timmins, Ont. The newly elected Mr. Malette represents the riding of Kapuskasing–Timmins–Mushkegowuk.
Pollster Nik Nanos, chief data scientist at Nanos Research, said an election would likely benefit the Liberals. He noted that the Liberals were 60 votes shy of winning in three ridings in the April 28 election.
“Whomever ended up being responsible, whether on purpose or by accident, would probably be punished,” Mr. Nanos said. “So I don’t think the Liberals are worried about having an election whatsoever so long as they don’t trigger it.”
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Mr. Nanos said he expects enough NDP MPs will hold their noses and abstain for the government to survive. The NDP is leaderless and is currently polling at 11 per cent nationally.
“If the NDP were responsible for a federal election, it would be completely devastating for them,” he said. “They don’t have party status. They don’t have money. They don’t have a leader.”
Mr. Nanos said some Ontario Conservative MPs might also be hesitant to defeat the government because the budget would fund projects that benefit the province. And Mr. Carney has forged a constructive relationship with popular Progressive Conservative Premier Doug Ford, he said.
The other problem for the Conservatives, according to Mr. Nanos, is that Mr. Poilievre is trailing Mr. Carney by 20 to 25 percentage points in popularity.
