College football Week 12 is done.
The Heisman board has tightened, the narratives have sharpened and now we move into Week 13, with only two Saturdays left before conference championships lock this race in place.
Top Heisman Trophy candidates
Fernando Mendoza, QB, Indiana -125 , last week: +160
There’s no rational case against Mendoza unless he implodes. Wisconsin only strengthened his profile: He went 22-of-24 with 299 yards and four touchdowns — total command. The Penn State game was his Heisman moment; Wisconsin was the performance that protected it.
Anyone arguing he shouldn’t be favored is clinging to preference. Mendoza has the record, the moment, the efficiency and the unbeaten run. Handle the Purdue Boilermakers on the road, and he enters the Big Ten title game as the clear leader, even if Ohio State grades better on paper.
He owns the narrative. He controls the voting window. At this stage, he’s defending the award, not chasing it.
Julian Sayin, QB, Ohio State, +225 , last week: +185
Sayin remains the second favorite because he has mastered efficiency without ever becoming the story. The numbers are clean, the mechanics are polished and the Buckeyes offense hums, but (as mentioned last week), nothing he has done has shaped the season’s emotional spine.
Editor’s Picks
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Roughly 900 Heisman voters mean almost no one is sitting around waiting for Week 12 Ohio State against Wisconsin to form an opinion, or even pressing for a Week 13 result. They already have a working hierarchy in their heads because they watched the season through narrative anchors, not PFF grades or EPA data. When you spread the vote across nearly a thousand people, the common denominator becomes simple: emotional imprint. Who defined the year? Who gave them the moment they’ll remember when their ballot hits the screen?
This is exactly where Sayin falls short.
With that many voters, you need a unifying storyline to cut through the noise, and Mendoza has it, Sayin does not — not yet at least. A clean résumé does not carry 900 people unless it comes with a defining snapshot.
A week later, what is the highlight? Gus Johnson losing his mind over a big-time play to win a game? The moment was Mendoza rectifying the mistakes made early in the game to keep his team on track for an undefeated season.
For Sayin, invincible excellence blends into the background. Michigan is now his access point to influence a group that large. Live drama is needed to force 900 minds to shift. And if there is none, and the Buckeyes cruise, then his placement is logical — second favorite.
Again, not because he’s not elite, but because 900 people don’t vote for efficiency. They vote for imprint.
Marcel Reed, QB, Texas A&M, +550 , last week: +850
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The move to +550 is structural. Reed produced a moment that forces voters to stop scrolling. Down 27 points, two interceptions, the season collapsing with a bad first-half performance, but then … he detonates the game. You can’t manufacture that kind of narrative energy. It happens organically and violently, and when it does, it pushes a player from “value potential” to “credible contender.”
The second half was cinematic — 9.8 yards per play, no punts and Reed erasing his own disasters in real time. That’s the kind of volatility that sticks. Voters remember quarterbacks who survive storms.
Reed is now the third favorite because he crossed that psychological threshold by becoming visible. Mendoza still owns the front-runner profile, but it was a single moment you can have on repeat 10 times a day, while Sayin still owns the technical résumé. But Reed now owns the chaos highlight that voters latch onto when they’re looking for a December pivot.
Reed’s path is still narrow, but it’s no longer theoretical. Beat Texas, deliver a clean game, finish undefeated, and he could be the spoiler with real teeth. And right now, he’s (still, as I’ve been saying for weeks) the only candidate who just authored a Heisman-style shockwave.
His Week 12 comeback (deservedly) moved his odds.
Other candidates
Jeremiyah Love, RB, Notre Dame, +4000
Love is outstanding: top-tier production, explosive efficiency, real juice. But the Heisman is built on defining seasons, and Notre Dame’s identity sits with the defense. Running backs need historic volume or signature national moments. Love has neither. Elite player, wrong award.
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Jacob Rodriguez, LB, Texas Tech, +15000
Rodriguez is not a Heisman candidate and the odds reflect that. He’s an elite defender with 97 tackles, four interceptions, seven forced fumbles, even a touchdown. That’s All-American, a first-round NFL draft pick, maybe even Nagurski-level performance, but it doesn’t touch Heisman calculus.
There is no Heisman pathway, not with these quarterbacks, not this late.
Week 12 betting thoughts
I said last week it was Mendoza’s to win, and even with Reed, I’m sticking to that. The value was never really there so betting-wise, it was never a wager that enticed, but the winner — if chosen now — is Mendoza.
Reed produced a season-altering moment, and it was electric, but it didn’t surpass Mendoza’s position. Reed’s comeback was dramatic, but Mendoza is sitting on the stronger foundation.
Reed needs Indiana to stumble or Mendoza to regress and he needs to match or outshine Mendoza against Texas for narrative oxygen.
Mendoza simply needs competence against Ohio State. That’s it. His bar is lower because he already built the résumé voters anchor to. Reed introduced himself to Heisman voters in Week 12, while Mendoza has been living in their heads for a good chunk of the season.
