Türkiye arrive in Andalusia knowing the math, the margins and the mood of the moment: they need a miracle, and Spain don’t usually allow those.
On Tuesday at Estadio La Cartuja, Vincenzo Montella’s side will take their final swing at the impossible – overturning a six-goal deficit in the group, defeating a flawless Spanish machine, and somehow seizing Europe’s most unlikely direct ticket to the 2026 World Cup.
Anything less, and the Crescent-Stars march toward the playoffs with pride and regret in equal measure.
David vs Goliath
The European qualifying campaign began in March 2025 with a revamped 12-group format, and Group E quickly split into two distinct tiers: a relentless Spain blazing toward the World Cup, and a determined Türkiye trying to keep pace while carrying the scars of their lone misstep – a brutal 6-0 defeat in Konya that still defines the standings today.
Spain’s campaign has been immaculate.
They have won every match, scoring nineteen goals and conceding none, while extending their national record unbeaten streak in competitive games to thirty.
They swept Bulgaria home and away, and dismantled Georgia with the kind of precision that turns qualifiers into formalities.
Türkiye’s path has been strong but imperfect.
They hammered Bulgaria 6-1, beat Georgia home and away, and steadied themselves with four straight qualifying wins.
Yet that September humiliation against Spain remains the shadow that follows them everywhere.
It is the reason the group’s finale feels more like a mountain climb than a football match.
Mirage of a miracle
The standings leave Türkiye with a narrow door still open, but only slightly.
Spain sit on fifteen points with a huge goal-difference advantage, while Türkiye trail by three points and by fourteen goals in the overall swing.
To overtake Spain, Türkiye must win by at least an eight-goal margin – a scenario that reads like a mathematical exercise rather than a plausible sporting outcome.
A hypothetical 8-0 or 9-1 victory would send Türkiye directly to the World Cup, but Spain’s defensive record makes such a result almost unthinkable.
They have not conceded a goal in qualifying and have rarely looked vulnerable at home.
If Türkiye somehow win by seven goals, they finish level on points and goal difference, and advance on goals scored.
A 7-0 victory flips the standings completely.
Goals scored would hand Türkiye the tiebreak, and if goals scored were somehow also equal, Türkiye would take the group on head-to-head results.
Any more realistic result – a narrow win, a draw or even a respectable loss – confirms Türkiye’s route through March’s playoffs, where three European spots will be settled in a high-stakes mini-tournament.
Spain’s depth
Luis de la Fuente enters the match without several stars, including Pedri, Rodri, Dani Carvajal and Lamine Yamal, all sidelined with injuries.
Real Madrid defender Dean Huijsen remains a doubt after missing Saturday’s match with a groin problem.
Still, Spain’s depth stretches further than most nations’ starting elevens.
Unai Simon is set to start in goal behind a defensive line featuring Pedro Porro, Pau Cubarsi, Aymeric Laporte and Marc Cucurella.
The midfield three of Martin Zubimendi, Mikel Merino and Fabian Ruiz brings balance, while the attack may rotate but almost certainly includes Mikel Oyarzabal, who has scored eight goals in his last eight internationals and remains Spain’s most dangerous weapon.
Spain’s intentions will be familiar: dominate possession, suffocate transitions and stretch the match into a sequence of controlled, high-tempo phases where opponents rarely touch the ball.
Bruised but brave
Montella’s squad enters Seville burdened by injuries of their own.
Ismail Yüksek is suspended, Kaan Ayhan is struggling after a knock cut short his previous appearance, and both Abdulkerim Bardakcı and Kerem Aktürkoğlu missed Sunday’s training session with fitness concerns.
Even so, Türkiye retain enough creativity and firepower to trouble opponents when their rhythm is right.
Captain Hakan Çalhanoğlu anchors the midfield and provides the emotional heartbeat of the team.
Arda Güler and Kenan Yıldız offer unpredictable flair from the flanks, and if fit, Aktürkoğlu leads the line with the explosiveness Montella’s pressing system depends on.
Uğurcan Çakır, almost certainly starting in goal, will need one of the best performances of his international career.
Weight of memory
Spain and Türkiye share a history of meetings that tilt overwhelmingly toward La Roja.
Spain have won the last four matches between the sides, including the 6-0 demolition in Istanbul.
Türkiye have not beaten Spain since a friendly in 1988, a statistic that anchors the psychological balance long before the opening whistle.
On the field, Spain’s possession-heavy, high-tempo rhythms clash with Türkiye’s vertical, transition-driven approach.
If Spain dictate the ball – and they usually do – Türkiye will be left chasing shadows. Montella’s best hope lies in early momentum, direct attacking bursts and perhaps the only intangible that Spain cannot script: pressure.
Beyond the math
For Spain, Tuesday’s match wraps up a flawless qualifying run, extends a historic unbeaten streak and positions the Euro 2024 champions as one of the early favorites for next summer’s expanded World Cup.
For Türkiye, the match represents something broader.
It is a chance to reclaim pride after the September collapse, to show they can stand toe-to-toe with Europe’s best, and to carry confidence into the playoffs.
Montella’s project has already shown signs of maturity, and a competitive performance in Seville could become a springboard rather than a setback.
Even if direct qualification remains out of reach, the performance – the courage to compete, the refusal to bow to the odds – might shape Türkiye’s path far more than the scoreboard.
