After a less-than-stellar first month in his freshman season at Penn State, Gavin McKenna isn’t a lock to be the No. 1 pick in the 2026 NHL Draft.
If the draft were held today, I still think he would go first, but the debate among NHL scouts and front offices over him would likely be far more intense than most observers imagined it would be in the summer. I’ve talked to seven NHL scouts who said they would have a different name at the one slot on their list. Ten scouts I’ve talked to argue he’s still clearly the guy, though, emphasizing his body of work over a dozen college games.
McKenna has never been a perfect player. He has often frustrated scouts over the years with his effort level and perimeter play, but he softened those concerns with dazzling displays of skill and incredible offensive production at the junior level. The scouts who love McKenna compare him to Patrick Kane; the ones who are not quite as high on him reference Mitch Marner or Artemi Panarin.
He has struggled to translate his game to the college level. He looks electric with the puck on his stick and on the power play, but the physicality of the level has pushed him, and he’s struggled more than expected at even strength.
Some have and will continue to argue that if he had returned to the WHL, we would not be having this discourse. As a player who put up absurd numbers and dominated major junior last season, he would have been extremely likely to repeat that feat and waltz to the top pick.
But that’s not the reality we’re living in. He went to the NCAA to play against better players, and we have very compelling information through the opening month about how his game translates up levels.
Who are the alternatives?
One of the biggest variables keeping McKenna at the top of many scouts’ rankings is the lack of a clear alternative. There are other excellent prospects in this year’s draft, but nobody has clearly grabbed the mantle. We may be looking at a below-average draft at the top.
North Dakota defenseman Keaton Verhoeff’s game is nowhere near as spectacular and dynamic as McKenna’s. His profile often inspires comparisons to Aaron Ekblad, and Ekblad did go No. 1 in his draft ahead of dynamic offensive players in Sam Reinhart, William Nylander and Leon Draisaitl.
Windsor winger Ethan Belchetz’s toolkit is easy to draw a comparison to 2022 No. 1 pick Juraj Slafkovský. He’s a huge winger who can skate, has legit skill, plays hard and has a finishing touch, all elements that led to Slafkovský being the top pick in his draft, even if I think Slafkovský may have a bit more natural offensive ability.
Muskegon’s Tynan Lawrence is a dynamic two-way center. He has great speed and skill to go with a super high motor. In some ways, he reminds me of the profile that led to Nico Hischier being the top pick in 2017, and a lesser version of Macklin Celebrini’s profile. When he’s played, he looks like a challenger for the No. 1 spot, but he’s been injured all fall.
Frolunda’s Ivar Stenberg is an electric smaller winger, but the profile is probably too analogous to McKenna and arguably a step below skill-wise.
Some scouts would argue for Alberts Smits, Jukurit’s big Latvian defenseman, in this discussion as well. He has been attracting a ton of attention early on this season in Liiga.
McKenna’s path to No. 1
McKenna is a 5-foot-11 winger without elite speed who isn’t overly hard to play against. Unless the offense is off the charts good, which, to date this season, it hasn’t been, his profile won’t excite general managers with the first pick.
I wrote in the summer that I thought McKenna would be an average top pick because of those flaws. The difference between him and some other great juniors whose offense didn’t translate against better players like Alexis Lafrenière, for example, is due to the new landscape of amateur hockey; we are getting our first look at it with McKenna.
There’s a lot of hockey left to be played, more than half his college season, and a crucial World Juniors, where he’s expected to play a leading role for the favorites in Team Canada. There’s still a probable path to McKenna going No. 1, but what’s clear is that there’s now a race for the top pick. Let’s see how the rest of the season plays out.
