Trump’s $2K rebate plan from tariffs could cost double the revenue
President Donald Trump’s $2,000 tariff rebate plan could cost $600B yearly, double the revenue tariffs generate.
President Donald Trump has offered an update on when Americans may get $2,000 dividend checks from the nation’s tariff revenue.
While speaking to reporters on Monday, Nov. 17, in the Oval Office, the president said “individuals of moderate income” could expect dividends “probably in the middle of next year.”
“We’re going to be issuing dividends later on, some somewhere prior to, probably in the middle of next year, a little bit later than that. Thousands of dollars for individuals of moderate income, middle income,” Trump said Monday, Nov. 17, as reported by Axios.
Trump initially broached the idea of a dividend rebate in July, saying revenue from tariffs, which the president began instituting in March and April, could lead to “a little rebate but the big thing we want to do is pay down debt.” Trump also raised tariffs on Chinese goods during his first term.
The president has referenced the potential tariff dividend checks regularly over the months since then, and on Nov. 10, said the $2,000 payments would be made “to low and middle income USA Citizens,” in a post on Truth Social.
However, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Sunday, Nov. 16, “we will see” if that dividend check plan actually comes to fruition. The administration would “need legislation for that,” he told Maria Bartiromo on Fox News’ “Sunday Morning Futures” when asked about the plan, adding that the checks “could go out.” Bessent also said the checks would be for “working families.”
Planning on $2,000 tariff dividend check? Maybe don’t spend it just yet
Despite the president’s plan, your financial advisor would likely recommend against boosting your spending now, given only the expectation, and not the confirmation, of a dividend check in 2026. That’s because, at this point, tariff revenue hasn’t been robust enough to amount to the estimated $600 billion needed for tariff dividend checks, according to The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, a nonpartisan nonprofit that studies fiscal policy. The CRFB estimates tariff revenue of about $100 billion so far.
The math for tariff revenue and a dividend doesn’t work and isn’t good policy, said Scott Lincicome, vice president of general economics at the Cato Institute, a libertarian think tank, in a statement to USA TODAY. The tariffs generate about $30 billion monthly, far short of the funds needed for a proposed rebate, he said.
The proposed rebates, which would require congressional approval, underscore the fact that it is Americans paying for the tariffs, Lincicome said. The better idea is to just cut the tariffs. “Giving Americans their own money back is inefficient redistribution, & new, debt-financed stimulus checks could be inflationary,” Lincicome said in a post on X on Nov. 17.
Long-term, the Congressional Budget Office has projected the tariffs would generate $3.3 trillion in revenue over a decade – and provide a total value of about $4 trillion to the government by allowing it to pay off debt faster and reduce interest payments.
$2,000 tariff dividend checks? Some are betting against it
Prediction platforms Polymarket and Kalshi remain bearish on tariff dividend checks. Polymarket activity suggests skepticism on whether any would be issued by March 31, 2026, and on the amount of revenue tariffs will bring in. Currently, Polymarket wagers suggest a 4% likelihood of tariffs generating more than $250 billion in 2025, down from a high of 35% in April, with a volume of more than $934,690.
Action on Kalshi has similar findings, and users also suspect the Supreme Court will strike down Trump’s tariffs. The likelihood of the court ruling in favor of Trump’s tariffs was 24% on Nov. 18, on a volume of more than $1.2 million. That’s down from a high of 58% shortly after action began on Sept. 2.
A majority of the justices on the Supreme Court sounded skeptical of the Trump administration’s arguments that it had the power to bypass Congress and impose sweeping tariffs on imports in oral arguments on Nov. 5.
Contributing: Francesca Chambers & Gabe Hauari, USA TODAY
Mike Snider is a national trending news reporter for USA TODAY. You can follow him on Threads, Bluesky, X and email him at mikegsnider & @mikegsnider.bsky.social & @mikesnider & msnider@usatoday.com
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