BLEAV in Bills: A tough test for Buffalo against the No. 1 Houston defense
Sal Maiorana and Adam Benigni preview the Bills Thursday night game against the Texans, one that could end up be low scoring.
ORCHARD PARK – If the Las Vegas oddsmakers have Thursday night’s game between the Buffalo Bills and Houston Texans pegged properly with an over-under set at 43.5 points, a very clear trend for the visiting team comes into play.
The Bills have played four games this season where the combined point total was 43 or less, and they have lost three of those to New England, Atlanta and Miami. Their lone win came in Week 2, a 30-10 blowout over the hapless Jets. In the six games where the point total was above 43, the Bills have won every time.
What that means as it pertains to Thursday night is that the Bills’ defense needs to play an excellent game because the Texans’ defense is, according to several statistical measures, the best in the NFL and points are going to be difficult to come by inside NRG Stadium.
While the Bills welcomed back cornerbacks Christian Benford and Taron Johnson and linemen AJ Epenesa and TJ Sanders from injuries last week, they still got torched for 202 yards rushing and 32 points by a Tampa Bay offense that was missing three of its best offensive players, not to mention its two starting guards.
“Yeah, the continuity piece has definitely been challenging and continues to be challenging,” coach Sean McDermott said of the never-ending injury situation that has gutted his defense. “Guys in and out of the lineup, but it’s no excuse. I know our guys are up for the challenge and there will be another challenge this week in that regard as well.”
Even minus several weapons, the Buccaneers are more dangerous on offense than Houston as the Texans rank 21st in points (22.0), tied for 23rd in yards per play (5.1), 26th on third down (36%), 18th in sacks allowed (25), and 31st in red zone TD percentage (43.3%), so the Bills’ defense should be able to have some success.
It’s a vastly different story for Houston’s defense, though. It ranks No. 1 in points (16.3) and yards (258.1), third in passing (171), rushing (87.1) and third-down defense (34.4%), fifth in takeaways (16), and 11th in sack percentage (7.0%).
“They’re really good at everything,” Bills offensive coordinator Joe Brady acknowledged. “We have to control what we can control going in and not beating ourselves, understanding that they’re going to make football plays, and we got to go play the next one. They’re the best defense in the league for a reason, it’s going to be a great test and a great opportunity.”
Here’s my preview of the game:
The QB Matchup: Josh Allen vs. Davis Mills
Allen is coming off an eye-popping game where he totaled 357 yards passing and rushing with six touchdowns against a good Tampa Bay defense. Now he goes against a great defense, one that is largely the same as it was in 2024 when the Texans befuddled him into a messy 9-for-30, 131-yard passing day, one of the worst of his career.
“I got beat up that game — didn’t play well at all,” Allen said, recalling that 23-20 loss in Houston last year.
“It was a moment we had to learn from as an offense,” McDermott said. “And the challenge that the response brought to the table was taken head-on and consistently every game after that. That challenge is what’s back in front of us this week.”
Houston’s season-high in passing yards allowed is 224 by the Rams’ Matthew Stafford in Week 1, and in eight games it has kept opposing passers below 200. The caveat is that among the QBs they have faced are Titans rookie Cam Ward twice, Trevor Lawrence of the Jaguars twice, Mac Jones of the 49ers, Cooper Rush of the Ravens, and Bo Nix of the Broncos.
No reigning league MVPs in that sea of mediocrity, so it would be nice to see Brady unleash Allen the way he did last week and trust him to attack the Texans despite their star-studded defenders at all three levels.
CJ Stroud is going to miss his third straight game due to a concussion, but in his place, Mills has won the two games he has started, and in one of those he led a 26-point fourth-quarter comeback in Week 10 to beat Jacksonville.
“Good player,” McDermott said. “He moves their offense. He’s mobile, smart and knows where to go with the ball, and it looks to me like they’re playing well with him under center.”
Now in his fifth season in Houston including two years (2021 and 2022) as the starter (career record 7-19-1), Mills is nothing more than a game manager, but as backup QBs go, he’s a nice guy to have. He has a true No. 1 WR in Nico Collins, a very good TE in Dalton Schultz, and two speedy rookie WRs in Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel who are starting to figure things out.
Buffalo Bills who should impact the game
▶ RB James Cook: In the last two games, the Dolphins and Bucs did a nice job of containing Cook as they held him to a combined 101 yards rushing, and things certainly won’t be any easier in this game against the Texans’ stout run defense. One way to get Cook going, though would be for Allen to use him in the pass game as he did against Tampa Bay. Cook caught three passes for 66 yards including a 25-yard TD. Brady has to find ways to scheme Cook against LB Azeez Al-Shaair who Pro Football Focus has charted for 25 receptions into his coverage area for 221 yards including 173 after the catch, partly due to six missed tackles.
▶ RT Spencer Brown: The big man is the best run blocker on the offensive line, but he’s had a few struggles in protection and his 20 pressures allowed according to PFF are tied for the most on the team along with Dion Dawkins and David Edwards. And now, he’ll be confronted most of the night with one of the best edge rushers in the NFL, Will Anderson IV, who has lined up on the defensive left side about 75% of his snaps.
▶ CB Christian Benford: Against the Bucs, Benford shadowed WR Emeka Egbuka pretty much the entire game and all of the talented rookie’s five catches for 40 yards came against zone with Benford not attributed as the nearest defender per PFF. The Bills might use the same strategy against Collins, Houston’s clear-cut No. 1 WR, while Tre’Davious White and Max Hairston – who continue to share snaps on the other side – deal with the others WRs – Higgins, Noel, Christian Kirk and Xavier Hutchinson.
▶ LB Shaq Thompson: This is assuming he’s going to play for the first time in several weeks, but all signs point to that being the case. And if he does, don’t be surprised if he out-snaps Matt Milano who simply isn’t the player he once was and has been one of the least effective LBs in the NFL this season. In his coverage area, per PFF, he has allowed an 82.4% completion rate and in the six games he has played, he has just 30 tackles, only one for lost yardage and that came on a blitz where he got a sack in Week 1. Another thing to consider is Thompson could be needed in place of Terrel Bernard. Bernard is expected to play, but he’s playing on a bad ankle and the short turnaround could be problematic and the Bills may have to manage his usage.
▶ RB Nick Chubb: Once one of the NFL’s best players and a four-time Pro Bowl pick with the Browns, Chubb has never been the same since a serious knee injury early in 2023. He was signed by Houston as a free agent this season and with RB Joe Mixon having missed the entire year to date, Chubb leads the Texans with 419 yards rushing but is sharing the job with rookie Woody Marks who has 348 yards. Against the Bills’ sagging run defense, Chubb and Marks could take some pressure off Mills while also keeping the Bills’ offense off the field.
▶ TE Dalton Schultz: His 51 receptions are third-most among all TEs in the NFL, and since Stroud got hurt in the second quarter against Denver, in the 2 ¾ games with Mills, Schultz has 17 catches for 132 yards and his lone TD. Since entering the league in 2018 with the Cowboys, he has 406 catches for 4,175 yards and 29 TDs. He’s a stud, but the Bills have been the league’s best defense this season in limiting TE production. They have allowed just 25 completions for 270 yards, and their worst game came when longtime nemesis Travis Kelce went four for 66 against them.
▶ DE Danielle Hunter: Above, I mentioned the huge challenge Brown will have with Anderson, but Dawkins has just as tough an assignment against Hunter who will line up primarily on his side. Among all NFL edge rushers, Hunter’s 33.1% pass rush win rate is second only to Myles Garrett (35.3) of the Browns. Third on the list? Anderson at 31.5%. The Texans’ bookend edge rushers are the type of difference-makers the Bills can only wish Greg Rousseau (25%) could be.
▶ CB Derek Stingley Jr.: There are some analysts who think he’s every bit as good as Denver’s Patrick Surtain who is regarded as the best cover CB in the league. The Bills don’t have anyone dangerous enough for Stingley to travel with, but they don’t really need him to because Kamari Lassiter is rock solid on the other side. Stingley is allowing just a 53.2 completion percentage against so the Bills WRs are in for a difficult night trying to separate, although they are catching a break because outstanding safety Jalen Pitre has been ruled out due to a concussion.
Sal’s prediction: Texans 23, Bills 19
This is a tough spot for the Bills. First and foremost, playing a road Thursday nighter is always a challenge, and when you add the fact that the 5-5 Texans are sitting in third place in their division, eighth in the conference standings and are desperate for a victory, that makes them particularly dangerous.
The best unit in this game is Houston’s defense, and because of that, this will probably be a low-scoring battle and in that scenario, it’s hard to see Buffalo’s banged up unit being better than the Texans.
When the Bucs shut down Cook, Allen was able to pick apart Tampa Bay’s 27th-ranked pass defense, one that lost star CB Jemel Dean in the first quarter. Houston can take away Cook and then do the same to Buffalo’s passing game because of its outstanding pass rush and coverage scheme.
Buffalo Bills 2025 schedule
- Week 1: Sunday, Sept. 7 vs. Baltimore Ravens, W 41-40.
- Week 2: Sunday, Sept. 14 at New York Jets, W 30-10.
- Week 3: Thursday, Sept. 18 vs. Miami Dolphins, W 31-21.
- Week 4: Sunday, Sept. 28, vs. New Orleans Saints, W 31-19
- Week 5: Sunday, Oct. 5 vs. New England Patriots, L 20-23
- Week 6: Sunday, Oct. 26 at Atlanta Falcons, L 14-24
- Week 7: Bye Week
- Week 8: Sunday, Oct. 26 at Carolina Panthers, W 40-9.
- Week 9: Sunday, Nov. 2 vs. Kansas City Chiefs, W 28-21.
- Week 10: Sunday, Nov. 9 at Miami Dolphins, L 13-30.
- Week 11: Sunday, Nov. 16 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers, W 44-32
- Week 12: Thursday, Nov. 20 at Houston Texans, 8:15 p.m.
- Week 13: Sunday, Nov. 30 at Pittsburgh Steelers, 4:25 p.m.
- Week 14, Sunday, Dec. 7: vs. Cincinnati Bengals, 4:25 p.m.
- Week 15: Sunday, Dec. 14 at New England Patriots, 1 p.m.
- Week 16: Sunday, Dec. 21 at Cleveland Browns, 1 p.m.
- Week 17: Dec. 28 vs. Philadelphia Eagles, 4:25 p.m.
- Week 18: Jan. 3-4, vs. New York Jets, TBD
Sal Maiorana has covered the Buffalo Bills for four decades including 35 years as the full-time beat writer for the D&C, he has written numerous books about the history of the team, and he is also co-host of the BLEAV in Bills podcast/YouTube show. He can be reached at maiorana@gannett.com, and you can follow him on X @salmaiorana and on Bluesky @salmaiorana.bsky.social.
