As Thanksgiving approaches, millions of Americans are monitoring weather forecasts ahead of a busy travel period that could have them traveling through precipitation or warm, sunny weather, depending on the location.
Why It Matters
The National Weather Service (NWS) Climate Prediction Center’s (CPC) six- to 10-day weather outlook offers a nationwide preview for Americans planning to travel during Thanksgiving week. As one of the most heavily traveled periods in the United States, millions rely on reliable forecasts to inform decisions about driving, flying, and safety on the road. Weather-related delays and disruptions can impact everything from family gatherings to economic activity, underscoring the importance of seasonal predictions for the holiday period.
What To Know
The latest CPC outlook, issued on Wednesday, indicates a significant weather pattern shift, particularly across the North-Central and Midwest states. Thanks to an ongoing La Niña event—now projected to persist throughout the early winter—Americans can expect notable temperature and precipitation trends in the days leading up to Thanksgiving.
The temperature outlook reveals that much of the West Coast, Intermountain West, and U.S. South will experience a chance of above-average temperatures from November 25 to November 29, with states like California, Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina showing the highest chances for above-average temperatures.
Meanwhile, most of the Central and Northern U.S., including Washington state eastward through Wisconsin and northern Texas, and Montana northward, will experience below-average temperatures. The states with the greatest chances of seeing below-average temperatures during this timeframe are northern Washington, northern Idaho, Montana, northeastern Wyoming, and western North Dakota and South Dakota.
“Cooler temperatures may start as early as November 25th for the Central U.S., as well as parts of the Northwest and Mississippi Valley regions,” NWS CPC said in a discussion about the outlook. “Around Thanksgiving and into the following weekend, cooler temperatures are forecast to expand southward into parts of Texas and the Gulf States, and eastward reaching the East Coast and New England.”
As far as precipitation is concerned, the vast majority of the U.S. has a chance at above-average precipitation from November 25 to November 29, although the NWS CPC doesn’t indicate whether the precipitation will fall as rain or snow. The West Coast, namely California, and the Intermountain West can expect below-average precipitation during this time period, but nearly every other state has a chance of above-average precipitation.
States with the highest chance at above-average precipitation are Colorado, Wyoming, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Minnesota, Nebraska, far northwestern Kansas, and the entire U.S. Southeast, stretching from Florida up through Virginia and into the Northeast, including Maryland, Delaware, and New Jersey.
Looking forward even further, AccuWeather lead long-range meteorologist Paul Pastelok told Newsweek that there’s a chance the U.S. will see a favorable weather pattern beginning in early December that will bring snow to many states in time for Christmas.
What People Are Saying
NWS CPC in a discussion about the outlook: “This pattern change favors a transition to more winter-like conditions across the Northwestern, Central, and Eastern U.S., including much below normal temperatures and the potential for heavy snow.”
NWS CPC in a post on X: “A significant pattern change is becoming increasingly likely across much of the country during late November and early December.”
NWS CPC in a post on X last week: “La Niña is favored to continue into the Northern Hemisphere winter, with a transition to ENSO-neutral most likely in January-March 2026 (61% chance).”
What Happens Next
The CPC continues to update its outlooks frequently to reflect the latest weather models and climate signals. Travelers are advised to check short-term local forecasts in the days immediately preceding Thanksgiving, as medium-range predictions—while valuable for planning—do not provide the precise details necessary for real-time travel decision-making.
