Ashes predictions: Who wins and will tempers flare? Nasser Hussain and Mark Butcher on Australia vs England
After all the talk, it is almost time for The Ashes.
England begin their bid for a first Test series win in Australia since 2010/11 on Friday when the first game of five gets under way at Optus Stadium in Perth (2.20am UK).
We asked Sky Sports pundits Nasser Hussain and Mark Butcher what is key for the tourists, who have lost 13 and drawn two of their last 15 Tests in Australia since that 3-1 success 15 years ago.
Nasser and Butch also make their picks for leading run-scorer and wicket-taker, assess whether tempers will flare, and tell us how they see the series panning out…
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England captain Ben Stokes says he is ‘desperate’ to win The Ashes this winter
England’s keys to the series?
NASSER HUSSAIN: Start well. Historically we have had me messing up the toss, Steve Harmison bowling to second slip, Rory Burns getting bowled first ball, Simon Jones getting injured, Michael Vaughan dropping catches or whatever.
England have a great opportunity in Perth with no Pat Cummins and Josh Hazlewood and an Australia top order that is slightly vulnerable.
They also need to realise that conditions may be different – 17 wickets fell on day one of the Perth Test between Australia and India last winter – and get that balance right between attack and defence. They like to play more shots if the ball is doing a bit but also back your defence.
I also think Australia will use the short ball at times on grounds that are bigger than the ones in England – the top edges won’t always go for six like they do at home.
Another key for England is to be ruthless. At times in the last home Ashes, they weren’t that. They played a lot of good cricket in the first Test and lost. They then hooked away at Lord’s and lost from a strong position.
Play the attacking brand of cricket that we have all enjoyed but if you are ahead of the game in an Ashes, don’t let Australia back in.
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Australian cricket journalist Adam Collins discusses England’s chances of victory in the first Ashes Test with home seamers Josh Hazlewood and Pat Cummins ruled out
MARK BUTCHER: Apart from catching every chance, this is obviously going to require a big collective effort from the batting line-up to get par scores on the board, ones that keep you in the game, as on the bowling front they look pretty potent.
There are ifs and buts about every player on the England side.
So, if I were captain, in the first two games in particular where the pitches are set to be seamer-friendly, I would have been keen to have someone like Will Jacks or Jacob Bethell coming in at No 7 or 8 with lower-order runs important. England have not gone that way.
As Nasser says, the short ball will probably come into play from Australia and the sizes of the boundaries in that part of the world mean England will have to stick them out of the park or be disciplined.
Which Australian could make the biggest impact?
Steve Smith will captain Australia in the Ashes opener with Cummins (back) missing out
NASSER: Obviously Steve Smith but I’d say Marnus Labuschagne because of Smith.
I think England would be overjoyed if Smith kept coming in at 30-2 but if Labuschagne, who has found his form in domestic cricket, can take that into the Ashes and protect Smith at No 4, then that will go a long way to Australia winning Test matches.
It will be a double whammy for Australia if Labuschagne gets runs at No 3 and prevents Smith coming in early. Alex Carey is also a streetfighter at No 7 and a player I like.
BUTCH: I will go for Travis Head.
If Smith has a big series then Australia are very much in this but in games that may be accelerated and where runs are at a premium, then one guy scoring a quick-fire 80 or a hundred can make all the difference. Head is very capable of that.
Australia’s Travis Head could be a real dangerman, particularly if Tests accelerate at a rapid rate
What have you made of England’s preparation?
NASSER: I would have liked to have seen them do some more but the way the schedule is, it is difficult to do more. And with Australia’s players playing Sheffield Shield, what quality of warm-ups would they have had anyway?
Plus, I like the way this England regime have not blinked. They do things the way they think is right so why when it comes to the most important series would they suddenly do it differently?
They have generally started series well under Ben Stokes and Brendon McCullum and actually faded away at the end and lost the last Test.
The old way of lots of warm-up games didn’t do my era a lot of good and all that matters for this England side is that when they rock up in Perth they find that intensity.
Whatever cricket you play in the build-up, you have to find the intensity of that battle. You cannot ease into it, you have to be on it from ball one as you are taking on a nation.
View from an Australia, with cricket journalist Adam Collins
England’s key to the series? Meeting the moment at Perth and not second guessing plans there.
Australian to be feared most? Marnus Labuschagne.
Leading run-scorer? Marnus Labuschagne.
Leading wicket-taker? Josh Tongue.
What have you made of England’s preparation? A combination of too busy (pointless white-ball series in New Zealand) and not busy enough (just one tour game in Australia).
Will Joe Root score a century? Multiple.
Could tempers boil over? No. That will be left to the loudest voices on social media.
Series prediction? No Test reaches a fifth day.
BUTCH: England could certainly have done more by way of competitive fixtures had they wanted to but teams have gone down to Australia for years, played a load of warm-up matches and still got humped, so it really doesn’t matter.
The proof will be in the Test matches. Since playing a lot of warm-ups in 2010/11 and hitting the ground running, England have had various degrees of prep and haven’t won a Test match.
So while a chunk of practice games gives the media and the pundits more to talk about and speculate on in terms of players being in and out of form, it makes little difference.
If England are ready they will play well. If they are not, that is down to them. Stokes and McCullum have had the same attitude to warm-up games from the very start so it’s not a new thing. And ultimately they will be judged at the end.
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Speaking earlier this month, Stokes defended England’s lean Ashes preparations
Will tensions boil over in the series?
NASSER: Maybe, but you have to remember that while it is easy sat there in the commentary box or at home to pass judgement, in the heat of an Ashes series emotions run high.
You have to think of what it has taken for players to get there and what it means for people who have grown up watching David Gower, Bob Willis, Sir Ian Botham, Shane Warne etc.
This series means a lot to a lot of people and there is a lot of emotion involved so I hope players are allowed to show emotion. And I do sense Australia have been waiting for this England side to go out there.
Bazball has wound them up a little bit, maybe more than a little bit, and a lot of people are waiting for it to fail. The furore after the Jonny Bairstow-Alex Carey stumping in 2023 has wound Australia up as well and if things do go pear-shaped for England, they will pounce.
On the flip side, the Aussie fans will be quick to turn on their own side if England play good cricket.
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Take a look back at some of the most heated moments from the 2023 Ashes series, including Alex Carey’s stumping of Jonny Bairstow
BUTCH: I think there is every chance things boil over.
In the first two matches, in particular, every run is likely to be important and in that sort of atmosphere, with a huge amount of England supporters in the house and Australian fans baying for blood, it is inevitable that there will be flash points.
The cricket is likely to be pretty high-octane and it would not surprise me whatsoever if there is some argy-bargy.
The stakes are high so you would expect nothing less – and the only reason that wouldn’t be the case is if one side gets the upper hand and it becomes a procession.
Stuart Broad was a chief Aussie baiter during his career but is now in the commentary box, not on the field
Leading wicket-taker and run-scorer?
NASSER: I’ll go Scott Boland for Australia as top wicket-taker as England will rotate their attack and then Joe Root as leading run-scorer. That would be a lovely story if Joe had a magnificent series.
BUTCH: Mitchell Starc as leading wicket-taker for Australia and Jofra Archer for England, with Head and Harry Brook the respective leading run-scorers.
Mark Butcher is backing Jofra Archer (pictured) to be England’s leading wicket-taker
Series prediction
NASSER: I am going to sit on the fence and say 2-2, with a rain-affected draw in Brisbane.
We have to remember that England haven’t won any of their last 15 Tests in Australia, so whatever we say about Cummins and Hazlewood’s absences early on and Australia’s top-order batting, the cold, hard facts are that this is a tough place to come.
BUTCH: Anything could happen. I have no idea how it will go but I can’t see it not being exciting. I will say that I cannot see it being 5-0 but I haven’t got a scoreline for you.
Ashes series in Australia 2025-26
All times UK and Ireland
- First Test: Friday November 21 – Tuesday November 25 (2.20am) – Optus Stadium, Perth
- Second Test (day/night): Thursday December 4 – Monday December 8 (4am) – The Gabba, Brisbane
- Third Test: Wednesday December 17 – Sunday December 21 (11.30pm) – Adelaide Oval
- Fourth Test: Thursday December 25 – Monday December 29 (11.30pm) – Melbourne Cricket Ground
- Fifth Test: Sunday January 4 – Thursday January 8 (11.30pm) – Sydney Cricket Ground
