It is truly amazing where this season has gone.
From being ranked in the top 10 to the public thinking Mike Norvell will be fired and everything in between, this year has had it all — and now FSU finds itself where everyone expected, fighting for bowl eligibility. The Seminoles head north to Raleigh on a short week to face off against NC State, also 5-5, with the winner clinching a spot in the postseason.
At the beginning of the year, the hope of Norvell leading his team to bowl eligibility with a win over Alabama and a road victory over NC State would be one of the best-case scenarios for Florida State coming off a 2-10 season. Whether a win on Friday would be enough to regain the FSU public’s approval after a horrific patch in the middle of the year remains to be seen, but a win on Friday would be momentous.
Below are three keys to Florida State winning its first game in Carter-Finley Stadium since 2016.
At first glance, seeing Florida State as a favorite seemed shocking, but a quick look at the numbers and it begins to make sense. NC State ranks last in the country in opposing passing yards per game, yes, last, with 319.8 allowed, a whole 15 yards worse than second to last (SMU at 304). The Wolfpack have given up over 30 points in six of their 10 games, including in their last four games. NC State averages 1.3 sacks per game, tied for 113th and 125th in sack percentage. Run-heavy Georgia Tech threw for over 400 yards, Carson Beck had only six incompletions last week, and NC State has allowed an opposing QB to throw for over 300 yards in three of their last four games.
On the Florida State side, Duce Robinson is 53 yards away from becoming a 1,000-yard receiver, has gone for over 97 yards per game in his last four and Gus Malzahn told local media he wanted to get the ball in his hands more. The path to victory lies through #0.
No. 2: Make the NC State offense one-dimensional
While the NC State passing defense has been abominable, the passing attack, led by true sophomore QB CJ Bailey, can be explosive at times and desolate at others.
Florida State needs to make sure it is the latter.
Bailey has thrown for over 300 yards in four games this season, with a completion percentage of around 70, impressive numbers in the college game. But when he struggles, he implodes. The sophomore has thrown an interception in four games this season, and in three of those, they have been multiple-interception games. He can also hold the ball too long when he begins to overthink, leading to multi-sack games, including getting taken down four times against Notre Dame and five times against Virginia Tech. In five of the Wolfpack’s losses this season, Bailey has 30 or more pass attempts, and in the five wins, he has never thrown the ball over 35 times. There is a reason why NCSU is 5-5.
The most consistent player on the NC State offense has been running back Hollywood Smothers, projected to be a top-100 draft pick in the NFL Draft next April. Unfortunately for Smothers, he missed out against Georgia Tech and played sparingly against Miami due to an injury. It will be noteworthy to see the impact he can make in a short week, and if Smothers is less than 100%, it will be quite a break in FSU’s favor.
Sorry folks, but I had to do it again.
In the three losses on the road this season, Florida State has scored 0, 0, 0 points in the first quarter. No, I am not lying. The Seminoles also posted a goose egg in the opening quarter at home against Virginia Tech last week, the fifth time this season Mike Norvell’s team has been held off the board in the first 15 minutes. Truly, the story of the season has become the consistency, or lack thereof, for Florida State, and the inability for FSU to put it together for 60 minutes is a massive culprit for the 5-5 record.
On the flip side, the defense also struggles to begin the game, although an interception on the opening VT drive last week cooled some of those concerns. However, a week earlier, against Clemson, the Tigers marched the ball down the field for a 13-play, 75-yard drive that took over six minutes and ended with a two-point conversion. From that point on, the Seminoles chased the game, never got into rhythm, and self-destructed along the way.
Considering how up-and-down this team can be on and off the field, a strong start to get everybody in the game and keep the spirits high should be priority #1 for an FSU team desperate to break its road losing streak.
