So far this season Georgia has hardly played anyone. They’ve battered Bellarmine, mauled Maryland Eastern Shore and Morehead St, and flattened Florida A&M. That’s enough alliteration, but it gets the point across. Georgia Tech is 95th in the KenPom and came within five of the Bulldogs.
That all matters because Xavier has also not played a terribly difficult schedule save Iowa, and they’ve made heavy weather of it. The Musketeers are roughly equivalent to Georgia Tech, the only team that challenged Georgia so far. The Ramblin Wreck play defense ferociously, but their offense is somehow worse than Xavier’s. This game is within reach for Xavier and would be a good one to get, but getting there won’t be easy.
Georgia takes care of the ball, hammers the offensive glass, and is excellent inside the arc. They don’t shoot a ton of threes, because they aren’t good at them. They are solid from the line. What they do, in short is lean into their strengths. They’re going to just keep attacking the paint and chasing their own misses over and over. They also won’t make mistakes while they do it. Oh, and they get 46% of their minutes from the bench, good for fourth in the nation, so they don’t get tired.
On defense Georgia is really, really good at almost everything. They are suffocating in the paint, they block a ton of shots, they get a bunch of steals, and they cause an incredible amount of turnovers. They’re even solid against three pointers. They are a top 10 defense in the nation except for one little thing: they are wretched on the glass. Only Bellarmine has failed to get back at least 35% of their own misses. Maryland Eastern Shore, one of the worst teams in the country, had a 40% rate and Morehead was even a little higher.
All of this happens at a blistering pace. Xavier last year played kind of fast. Xavier this year plays a little faster. Both of those pale in comparison to what Georgia does. Their average possession lasts just 13.2 seconds, and that usually includes an offensive rebound. These guys get the ball and just RUN.
Starting matchups
Jordan Ross
Point Guard
All Wright
Junior
Class
Sophomore
6’3″, 195
Measurements
6’3″, 190
7.2/2.8/2.6
Game line
9.4/1.4/2
48/30/75
Shooting line
38.5/14.3/100
Ross is mostly a facilitator for Georgia, but did step up and score 14 against Goergia Tech on 5-7 from the floor when the situation called for him to come to the fore. He doesn’t harvest a ton of assists, but his turnover rate is extremely low and having someone who can push the ball at pace without giving it away is essential for a team that plays like Georgia does.
Jeremiah Wilkinson
Shooting Guard
Malik Messina-Moore
Sophomore
Class
Senior
6’1″, 185
Measurements
6’5″, 200
15.6/2/1.2
Game line
8.6/2.2/4.2
43.1/26.7/80
Shooting line
31.6/33.3/66.7
Wilkinson has been in and out of the starting lineup but is the Bulldogs leading scorer because of his ability to get to the rim and finish or get to the free throw line. On field goals not shot at the rim, he’s sitting at 27% for the season, so keeping a man in front of him is vital for X if they want to slow him down. He is also averaging 3 steals a game, giving him a steal rate of 7% thus far this season. He is definitely more of a scorer than a distributor, but he does take care off the ball well for someone with his usage rate.
Blue Cain
Small Forward
Tre Carroll
Junior
Class
Senior
6’5″, 195
Measurements
6’8″, 235
15/5.6/2
Game line
15/5/2.8
51/32.1/94.1
Shooting line
43.5/36.4/81.3
Cain is probably the Dawgs’ best player and his 18/5/2 with a block, 2 steals, and no turnovers against Georgia Tech is a big reason why they come in with an unblemished record. He’s shooting a frankly absurg 15-17 at the rim so far this season, is 16-17 from the line, and is one of 5 statistical qualifiers for Georgia with an offensive rebound rate over 10%.
Kanon Catchings
Power Forward
Filip Borovicanin
Sophomore
Class
Senior
6’9″, 220
Measurements
6’9″, 227
9.2/5/1.6
Game line
7.2/5.4/3.6
43.2/25/80
Shooting line
38.5/14.3/100
Catchings is another guy who gets most of his work done at the rim on offense, although against the only opponent with an average height in the top 100 (GT), he was 2-4 there and shot 6 threes. He also does a good job on the offensive glass, is the team’s second best defensive rebounder, and blocks a fair number of shots.
Somtochukwu Cyril
Center
Jovan Milicevic
Sophomore
Class
Sophomore
6’11”, 260
Measurements
6’10”, 241
8.4/5/0.2
Game line
11.2/3.2/1
70.8/0/57.1
Shooting line
38.1/37.5/75
This dude is out there for one reason: to throw your shot into the cheap seats. He currently blocks 14% of opponents’ shots when he’s on the floor which is the 10th best rate in the nation. He scores efficiently, but is not the primary option by any means, and gets after the offensive glass as well. The drawback to all this activity is the fact that he fouls a ton, being whistled at a rate of once per 5 minutes he plays.
Georgia gets the 4th most minutes from their bench in the country and the most of any high major. Marcus Millender gets the most minutes off the bench at 21.8 per game and leads the team in assists. He shot the three extremely well his first two seasons at South Alabama and UTSA, but is just 5-23 this season meaning his contribution has been mostly limited to his ability to set the table for others. Dylan James is a 6’9” forward in his third year with Georgia and is the best rebounder by rate at both ends of the floor on the team. He has shown the ability to step out and shoot the three in the past, but is 0-4 so far on the young season. Top 100 freshman Jake Wilkins will spell the wings Cain and Wilkinson and is as dynamic as they come, using his athleticism and length to score at the rim and grab boards on offense and blocking almost 10% of opponents’ shots on defense. Senior guard Justin Bailey is currently the only rotation player shooting better than 33% from three, with his 35% mark. He does not do a lot inside the arc or on the glass and has mostly been used as a spot up threat so far. Another top 100 freshman Kareem Stagg helps fill out the frontcourt rotation and while he doesn’t block shots or hit the offensive glass at the same rate as some of his teammates, he has a knack for distribution, rarely turns the ball over, and is shooting 81% from the free throw line so far. In the event that Cyril lands in foul trouble (which happens almost every game) Justin Abson is ready to come off the bench and somehow block shots at an even higher rate. He is also rebounding the ball really well but his season high in field goal attempts is 4, so it is safe to say he is a bit of an afterthought on offense when he is out there.
– Can Xavier keep shooting like that? The smart money says no, but this team has guys who can get hot. All Wright is a bucket right now, Triple M has been in the past, Jovan Milicevic has shot 37.5% from deep this season. In fact, if you take away Filip Borovicanin’s 2-14 mark, this team is shooting 38% behind the arc. Elite? No, but more than good enough to put some real pressure on a defense that occasionally struggles with shooters. The Musketeers just need to find a hot hand and feed it.
– Is Jovan Milicevic the guy? He’s certainly played like he wants to be over the last two games. His 35 points in that stretch have come on just 24 shots. He’s been efficient, gotten to the line, and been a threat at three levels. More importantly, he’s acted like he wants to take responsibility for making things happen. Xavier desperately needs that right now.
– What pace do you even try to play? Do you run with these guys? Well, that’s what they want. This game ending with 180+ points scored would be right in Georgia’s wheelhouse. On the other hand, Xavier hasn’t exactly excelled in the half court on either end this season. Do you just go full track meet and see if Georgia can do it against a team people were actually aware existed, or do you see if they have a gear to slow things down and just hope they don’t?
- –Pack the paint. Even against the 363rd hardest schedule in the nation, Georgia has been dog water from behind the arc. They make just over a quarter of their threes but still shoot just under half of their shots from distance. They’re in the top 10 in the country in two-point percentage but aren’t apparently that focused on getting the ball in there. Anything to further dissuade them from shooting the shots they’re good at is going to be a huge boon for Xavier.
- –Win on the glass. When does Georgia shoot from the paint? After they grab one of their own misses (which, statistically, is likely from three). They are a dominant offensive rebounding team where Xavier is only an okay defensive rebounding one. The game may be won or lost in second chances.
- –Be better than Georgia Tech. Four of Georgia’s five wins – including a comical 94-29 obliteration of Maryland-Eastern Shore – have been at home against teams 290th or worse in the KenPom. The lone exception is a five-point home win over KenPom #94 Georgia Tech. The Ramblin’ Wreck had Georgia on the ropes, up 8 in the second half, before surrendering 10-0 and 12-2 runs down the stretch that they couldn’t quite come back from. Tech shot well, including 5-7 from deep by Kam Craft – and protected the ball in that game. If Xavier can do the same, they have every chance to come away with a huge win.
