The Scout looks at what managers should do with Antoine Semenyo (£8.1m), who has delivered only five points in his last three matches in Fantasy Premier League, and is an injury doubt for Gameweek 12.
A run of three straight blanks has persuaded many of Antoine Semenyo‘s (£8.1m) owners to seek out a replacement over the international break.
AFC Bournemouth’s winger is the fifth most-sold player in Fantasy ahead of Saturday’s 11:00 GMT deadline, moved on by more than 153,000 managers.
But despite that recent exodus, Semenyo remains the most-popular player in his position, with a hefty ownership of 63.4 per cent.
Furthermore, he now has a great run of opponents that could help him get back to his best, with four home matches in the next six Gameweeks.
According to the Fixture Difficulty Ratings (FDR), where the difficulty of each fixture is ranked from one to five – with one being the easiest possible match and five being the hardest – three of those matches at the Vitality Stadium score only two, against West Ham United, Everton and Burnley.
Bournemouth’s next six matches
GW
Opp.
FDR
12
West Ham (H)
2
13
Sunderland (A)
3
14
Everton (H)
2
15
Chelsea (H)
3
16
Man Utd (A)
3
17
Burnley (H)
2
So should managers keep Semenyo and back him to profit from these fixtures, or are there now better options in midfield? Let’s delve into the data to find out.
Semenyo’s goal threat has dropped sharply
Looking at Semenyo’s goal threat over Bournemouth’s 11 matches, it’s easy to see why he initially made such a strong start to the season.
In the first four Gameweeks, he had at least two shots in the box in each of his appearances.
The Ghana international had an impressive six big chances – situations where a player is expected to score – in that early spell, more than any other midfielder in Fantasy.
But it’s fair to say that, since Gameweek 5, Semenyo has been hugely underwhelming.
He’s had two or more shots in the box in only two of his last seven outings, and a total of just two big chances – one of which was his missed penalty against Aston Villa in Gameweek 11.
A notable takeaway from the table below it that all eight of Semenyo’s big chances have come in the eight matches when Evanilson (£7.0m) – who is now fit again after injury – has started up front for the Cherries.
Semenyo’s goal threat by Gameweek
GW
Starting forward
Shots
Shots in box
Big chances
1
Evanilson
3
2
2
2
Evanilson
4
4
2
3
Evanilson
3
3
1
4
Evanilson
2
2
1
5
Evanilson
1
1
0
6
Evanilson
1
0
0
7
Evanilson
3
3
1
8
Kroupi
2
2
0
9
Kroupi
1
1
0
10
Kroupi
2
0
0
11
Evanilson
1
1
1
Scroll across on mobile to see the full table
Although that suggests he offers more potential for goals when playing alongside the Brazilian rather than Junior Kroupi (£4.6m), the table above also shows that Semenyo has only had one shot in three of his last four matches with Evanilson in the starting line-up.
Indeed, a look at Bournemouth’s data as a team indicates that the issue lies with their attack as a whole, rather than being an individual problem of Semenyo’s.
Bournemouth created nine big chances in the first four Gameweeks, more than their total of eight in the last seven Gameweeks.
Andoni Iraola’s side were ranked among the top five for big chances and minutes per shot in the first four Gameweeks, underlining both the quality and quantity of their scoring opportunities.
But over Gameweeks 5-11, their eight big chances are the second-fewest in the league, bettering only the seven of Wolverhampton Wanderers.
The Cherries’ 9.0 minutes per shot rank a lowly 14th, with an upturn in goal conversion from 10.5 to 14.7 per cent (joint-fifth in the league) somewhat papering over the cracks.
Bournemouth’s goal threat compared
Statistic
GW1-4
GW5-11
Big chances
9
8
PL rank
=5th
19th
Mins per shot
6.8
9.0
PL rank
4th
14th
Goal conversion
10.5%
14.7%
PL rank
10th
=5th
Are there other midfielders with good fixtures?
As the table below shows, Bournemouth’s schedule from now until the second Wildcard is available following the Gameweek 19 deadline is one of the best in the league.
So if you’re going to swap out Semenyo, you need to bring in someone whose fixtures are similarly kind.
Manchester United’s Bryan Mbeumo (£8.5m) and Arsenal’s Bukayo Saka (£10.1m) are the form picks in the £8.0m plus bracket.
Mbeumo is the most-bought player in the Gameweek, earning more than 371,000 new owners having scored four goals to earn 33 points in the last four Gameweeks. Three of his next four matches – at home to Everton and West Ham and away to Wolves – score only two in the FDR.
Saka, meanwhile, has scored in three of Arsenal’s last four matches across all competitions.
Along with Saka’s Arsenal team-mate Declan Rice (£6.9m), there are a host of options in the sub-£7.0m price range to consider.
Four of Fulham’s next eight matches score just two in the FDR, which marks out Ryan Sessegnon (£5.4m) as a possible budget gem. The winger has 35 points over the last six Gameweeks, the same as Saka.
Crystal Palace’s Ismaila Sarr £6.7m) visits three of the bottom six teams – Wolves, Burnley and Fulham – in the next four Gameweeks. The Senegalese has scored twice in two of his last four matches in all competitions for the Eagles.
Manchester City’s Jeremy Doku (£6.4m) and Rayan Cherki (£6.3m), along with Brentford’s Dango Ouattara (£6.0m) and Kevin Schade (£7.0m) are also set to embark on great runs.
Indeed, both clubs have two home matches against promoted clubs across Gameweeks 13-16.
Clubs with best schedules, GW12-19
Club
No. of matches scoring 2 in FDR, next four GWs
Ave. FDR score
No. of matches scoring 2 in FDR, next eight GWs
Ave. FDR score
Liverpool
3
2.3
5
2.4
Man Utd
3
2.3
4
2.5
Fulham
1
3.0
4
2.6
Bournemouth
2
2.5
3
2.6
Crystal Palace
2
2.5
3
2.8
Man City
2
2.8
3
2.8
Brentford
1
3.3
3
2.9
Newcastle
1
3.0
2
2.9
Arsenal
0
3.0
1
2.9
Scroll across to see the full table on mobile
Which midfielders have offered more attacking threat than Semenyo?
By focusing only on those nine clubs above, the search for a Semenyo replacement can be refined further.
The numbers below are from the last seven Gameeeks – the period where Semenyo’s form has dipped – and show the midfielders who have been involved in at least double the number of big chances as Semenyo in that spell.
Mohamed Salah (£14.2m) has had seven big chances and created two of them over Gameweeks 5-11, which means he has been involved in a total of nine big chances.
But, along with Mbeumo, Ouattara and Sarr, he is among four players in the table below who are set to depart for the Africa Cup of Nations (AFCON) next month.
See: How AFCON affects FPL and how to plan for it
Salah’s poor form and huge price tag also goes against him, and unless you’re on a Wildcard, it’s not worth taking points hits to bring in a player you are going to have to sell shortly afterwards.
Mbeumo and Saka take joint-second on eight big-chance involvements over the last seven Gameweeks, with the former boasting the greater goal threat by six big chances to four.
Brentford’s Ouattara ranks third here for big chances (BC) with a total of five, while his team-mate Schade and Man City’s Doku are identical on three big chances and three big chances created.
Big-chance involvement GW5-11
Player
Shots in box
BC
BC created
BC inv.
Salah
17
7
2
9
Mbeumo
11
6
2
8
Saka
12
4
4
8
Ouattara
13
5
2
7
Gakpo
12
4
3
7
Schade
10
3
3
6
Doku
7
3
3
6
Rice
3
2
4
6
Sarr, Fernandes
9
3
2
5
Trossard
12
3
1
4
Semenyo
8
2
0
2
Scroll across to see the full table on mobile
So, is Semenyo still a must-have?
Bournemouth’s numbers are a particular concern and indicate that their opponents have stifled their attacking potential considerably.
While there’s no denying Semenyo’s big chances have all come alongside Evanilson, who is now starting again, the Ghanaian is being denied the space to replicate his early-season showings, and both his quantity and quality of chances have dropped.
As evidenced by his 17-point haul against Fulham in Gameweek 7 during this spell, the Cherries star still has the potential for huge returns that could punish sellers. Given his hefty popularity, that could lead to a tumble down the rankings for his non-owners.
Nonetheless, both Semenyo and Bournemouth’s statistics show he’s far from being a must-have right now. Saka and Mbeumo should instead be your priorities, while the likes of Schade and Doku could be great options if you’re looking to steer clear of soon-to-depart AFCON stars Ouattara and Sarr.
