Tarik Skubal trade scenarios: 5 potential packages for the AL’s top pitcher – The Athletic
Detroit Tigers president of baseball operations Scott Harris has told teams he expects Tarik Skubal to pitch for Detroit in 2026, but that hasn’t stopped him from listening on the two-time Cy Young Award winner.
Detroit clearly prefers to retain Skubal and have already made him an extension offer, but it wasn’t even in the ballpark for what Skubal and his representative Scott Boras would be willing to accept. Skubal and his camp are now waiting for the Tigers to make another, much bigger offer. Surpassing Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s record-breaking 12-year, $325 million deal from the Dodgers would be a starting point, as Skubal and his team would be looking for even more than that.
Keep in mind that most (not all) of Boras’ clients get to free agency when they’re just a year away from reaching it and that strategy has worked for them most of the time.
There has been a lot of dialogue between Skubal’s camp and the Tigers, and that should continue throughout the offseason.
It’s easy to see why Skubal’s camp believes he should be the highest-paid pitcher in MLB history. Since returning midway through the 2023 season from flexor tendon surgery in his left elbow he had in 2022, Skubal has been nothing short of dominant, posting a 2.39 ERA over 77 starts and 467 2/3 innings. He’s averaged 11 strikeouts per nine innings while walking roughly 1.6 batters per nine innings during that stretch. He’s also put up a 2.04 ERA in six postseason starts for Detroit.
Despite Skubal’s run of dominance, the Tigers might decide a contract north of $400 million isn’t worth it for any player. If that’s the case, trading him this offseason would be imperative because they won’t get the same return at the July trade deadline and can’t let him walk for just draft pick compensation next offseason.
If they decide to trade him, there really are only a handful of teams that they match-up well with who have the major-league or minor-league talent that would give the Tigers the type of return they would need. If I’m the Tigers, in any return package I would target multiple young starters with years of team control remaining. Then for the additional players in the deal I would focus on the best possible prospects regardless of position.
Players of Skubal’s caliber are rarely traded, so there aren’t a lot of past trades we can use for comparison. One trade that does give us some framework for what a fair return would look like is the deal that sent Juan Soto to the New York Yankees ahead of the 2024 season. (The Soto-to-San Diego deal in 2022 isn’t a fair comparison because Soto had two-and-a-half years of team control remaining at that time.)
In the San Diego/New York trade, the Padres received five players, pitchers Michael King, Randy Vasquez, Jhony Brito and Drew Thorpe, and backup catcher Kyle Higashioka (the Padres also sent outfielder Trent Grisham to the Yankees in the deal). That return for San Diego is a decent potential framework for Skubal deal, but since Skubal is the American League’s best starter, he will likely command even more than what the Padres got for Soto.
With that in mind, let’s look at five potential trade partners for a Skubal deal should one come to pass this winter:
Los Angeles Dodgers
Potential trade return: RHP Emmet Sheehan, LHP Justin Wrobleski, LHP Jackson Ferris and OF Zyhir Hope
The Dodgers already have four aces in their rotation and an exciting development project in Roki Sasaki. However, teams can never have enough starting pitching, so the Dodgers have no reason not to add another ace to the top of the rotation, especially when they can offer a competitive package and have the resources to keep him long-term, as well.
Los Angeles could offer two major-league ready starting pitchers in Sheehan and Wrobleski, and a third pitcher in Ferris who’s getting closer to being major-league ready. Sheehan and Wrobleski have already cut their teeth at the major-league level, even getting important innings during the postseason. Sheehan was especially impressive with the Dodgers this year, putting up a 2.82 ERA in 73 1/3 innings during the regular season.
Sheehan showed a lot of promise in his first extended stint as an MLB starter. (Katelyn Mulcahy / Getty Images)
Ferris should start next season in Triple A after posting a 3.62 ERA in 154 1/3 Double A innings the last two seasons. He and Hope were the return the Dodgers got from the Cubs in the deal that sent Michael Busch to Chicago. Ferris won’t turn 22 until January and has plus stuff but needs to work on his command.
Hope has the highest ceiling among this group. He’s at least two years away from the major leagues, but he reached Double A at the end of the season and has above-average on-base skills to go along with a power-and-speed combination at the plate and a strong glove in center field.
Another idea would be to substitute Tyler Glasnow for Sheehan in the deal. This would give the Tigers a top-of-the-rotation starter to replace Skubal and they would control Glasnow for three more years. Glasnow does not have a no-trade clause with the Dodgers and has $94 million remaining on his contract if the team-half of the 2028 mutual option is exercised.
Boston Red Sox
Potential trade return: LHP Connelly Early, UT Kristian Campbell, OF Jhostynxon García and RHP Christian Foutch
The Red Sox are coming off a postseason berth and are looking to build on that momentum. Adding Skubal and pairing him with Garrett Crochet would give Boston the top left-handed duo in baseball.
They could offer an even more well-rounded package than the Dodgers’ group, led by Early, who would immediately go into the Tigers’ rotation. He made four starts for the Red Sox in his first taste of the major leagues and was impressive, as shown by his 29 strikeouts in 19 1/3 innings with a 2.33 ERA and 1.086 WHIP. He was similarly impressive in the minor leagues, putting up a 2.60 ERA in 100 1/3 innings split between Double A and Triple A. His four-seam fastball, curveball and changeup are a strong combo, and his above-average extension makes his mid-90s fastball play up.
Campbell’s rookie season was a disappointment but he offers plenty of upside and positional versatility. (Greg Fiume / Getty Images)
Campbell would be another big piece of the trade return. The consensus 2024 Minor League Player of the Year signed an eight-year, $60 million contract with the Red Sox in April and then won Rookie of the Month for March/April. He struggled after that, was demoted to the minors in late June and stayed there the rest of the season. It was a disappointing first season, but he still projects to hit for average at the major-league level with 20 home run power. He can play all over the field defensively, but he will likely end up at second base long-term.
García is Boston’s best outfield prospect but he is blocked at the major-league level by Wilyer Abreu, Ceddanne Rafaela, Roman Anthony and Jarren Duran, so putting him in this deal makes sense.
Foutch was Boston’s fifth-round pick this summer out of the University of Arkansas. He is a reliever with the upside of a high-leverage bullpen arm when fully developed.
New York Mets
Potential trade return: RHP Jonah Tong, RHP Brandon Sproat, INF/OF Jett Williams and INF/DH Ronny Mauricio
The Mets’ rotation really struggled last season, finishing 18th in MLB in starter’s ERA, and has several openings as the offseason begins. They need an ace and have the resources to sign Skubal long-term if they can trade for him.
They certainly can offer an enticing package, led by two of their top pitching prospects in Tong and Sproat. Tong was one of the talks of the minor leagues this season, breaking out with a 1.43 ERA and 179 strikeouts in 113 2/3 innings between Double A and Triple A. He struggled in his five starts in the major leagues but that didn’t dull his prospect shine much.
Sproat was the Mets’ 2023 second-round pick and he’s struck out 244 in 237 1/3 innings in his first two minor-league seasons, the second of which was spent in Triple A. He also made his major-league debut in September. Both Tong and Sproat offer upside and could slot immediately into the Tigers’ rotation.
Williams is a dynamic and versatile prospect who would fit into the Tigers’ system well. (Sam Navarro/ Imagn Images)
Williams, the Mets’ 2022 first-round pick, had a big bounce-back season in 2025 after missing much of the 2024 season with injuries. He is a dynamic up-the-middle athlete who would give the Tigers another versatile player who can play anywhere but first base and catcher. Williams is only 5-foot-7 but he has hit for some power in the minors, has above-average speed and can work a walk.
Finally, the Mets could finish the deal with switch-hitter Ronny Mauricio. He’s never lived up to his immense potential but continues to show flashes thanks to his plus power and strong arm. His inability to get on-base and his high chase rates scream he needs more plate discipline, which could be helped by a change of scenery and new coaching voices.
Seattle Mariners
Potential trade return: RHP Bryce Miller, RHP Ryan Sloan, C Harry Ford, RHP Teddy McGraw and RHP Michael Morales
The Mariners know how close they are to getting to the World Series. They’ve already re-signed Josh Naylor to play first base for the next five years. If they can follow that up with a trade for Skubal, they might become the favorites in the American League.
The Mariners could start their offer with Miller. In 2024, he went 12-8 with a 2.94 ERA over 31 MLB starts. However, this past year he dealt with right elbow inflammation, leading to multiple stints on the injured list. When he was on the active roster, he wasn’t the same pitcher, posting a 5.68 ERA over 18 starts. There were some encouraging moments for him in September and during the postseason and he won’t need surgery for the bone spur in his elbow as they were able to fix it with a non-operative process. If Miller is full-strength in 2026, he could immediately be one of the Tigers’ top starters.
The Mariners have one of the deepest and most talented farm systems and have plenty of top prospects they could offer. One is Sloan, who is arguably their second-best pitching prospect behind 2025 No. 3 draft selection Kade Anderson. Sloan was the Mariners’ 2024 second-round pick and as a 19-year-old pitched very well in the Low-A California League and finished his debut season in High A.
Ford finally made his MLB debut in September but he’s blocked at the big-league level by Cal Raleigh. (Allan Henry / Imagn Images)
Ford has been one of the Mariners’ top prospects since he went to them in the first round in 2021. The athletic backstop is a defensive tweener, but he has elite on-base skills, hits for some power and has above-average speed for a catcher. The Mariners tried him in the outfield a bit in 2024 but he was a catcher again full-time in 2025. He made his major-league debut in September but is stuck behind Cal Raleigh on Seattle’s depth chart.
A 2023 third-round pick out of Wake Forest, McGraw was limited to 28 1/3 innings at the two A-ball levels this season by an elbow flexor tendon injury, but like Miller does not need surgery and is expected to be fully recovered this spring. He has a long history of elbow troubles — including two Tommy John surgeries — but is a high-upside talent who would be a wild-card for the Tigers in this package.
Morales is more of a throw-in in this deal, a reliable right-hander who has thrown more than 100 innings in each of the past four seasons. He doesn’t have plus stuff but has a lot of different weapons and keeps the ball in the park. The Mariners left him unprotected for next month’s Rule 5 draft, so he isn’t likely to be included in a deal if one is consummated before that draft.
New York Yankees
Potential trade return: OF Spencer Jones, RHP Will Warren, RHP Carlos Lagrange and RHP Bryce Cunningham
The Yankees enter the 2026 season with two of their top starters — Gerrit Cole and Carlos Rodón — still working their way back from injuries. Their rotation is a strength but adding Skubal would keep the rotation elite while Cole and Rodón are out and would give them a year to make a case to Skubal as to why he should re-sign with them. Their similar gamble with Soto didn’t pay off with an extension, but it did result in a World Series trip, which isn’t a bad consolation.
They could start their proposal with outfielder Spencer Jones, who has an enticing blend of power and speed, as demonstrated by his 35 home runs and 29 stolen bases at Double A and Triple A this past season. He also can play all three outfield positions and is above-average defensively at the corners. He comes with a lot of swing-and-miss, as shown by his 179 punchouts in 506 plate appearances. He still reached base at a .362 clip, which should not be ignored, and he’s made a lot of positive adjustments with his swing the last couple of years. The Tigers have several dynamic position player prospects nearing the big leagues, like Max Clark and Kevin McGoningle, and Jones would be another potential big bat for Detroit. Jones was added to the Yankees’ 40-man roster this week ahead of the Rule 5 draft.
Warren was a workhorse for the Yankees in 2025. (Vaughn Ridley / Getty Images)
Warren spent the entire 2025 season in the Yankees’ rotation, making 33 starts and tossing 162 1/3 innings. He went 9-8 with a 4.44 ERA and struck out more than a batter an inning (171 Ks). He has a plus four-seam fastball in terms of results, though the pitch sits in the 93-95 mph range. He also throws a sinker, a changeup, a sweeper and a curveball. He’d be able to jump right into the Tigers’ rotation.
Lagrange is arguably the Yankees’ top pitching prospect. The 6-foot-7 right-hander can hit 102-mph with his fastball and he has a pair of breaking balls that can be plus at times. He’s dealt with a back injury in the past, but he had a breakout season in 2025, topping 100 innings for the first time (120 innings between High A and Double A). He can rack up the strikeouts at a high rate (12.6 per nine innings in 2025), though the walk rate still needs to come down significantly.
Cunningham was the Yankees’ 2024 second-round pick out of Vanderbilt. He missed nearly two months of the 2025 season with injury but was able to pitch in the Arizona Fall League after throwing 54 1/3 innings during the regular season. The 6-5 right-hander has three potential major-league pitches with his fastball, changeup and slider. He pitched at the High-A level during the regular season and should start next season in Double A.
All five of these trade packages are aggressive but we’re talking about Skubal, who is an absolute difference-maker and would bolster all five teams’ World Series aspirations. These teams would acquire Skubal not knowing if they will be able to sign him to an extension, but all five are financially capable of offering him a deal to make him the game’s highest-paid pitcher. I think it’s unlikely the Tigers decide to make a similar contract offer to retain Skubal, so trading him this winter makes the most sense.
