Fantasy football market share report: Devin Neal, Andrei Iosivas eye Week 13 opportunities
Target and touch totals are important, but not as important as the market share. “Targets” is mostly a receiver stat (although there are some notable early exceptions). Touches are the currency of the running back.
What we’re doing is really simple. For pass-catchers, market share is targets divided by team pass attempts. For running backs, touches are divided by team plays from scrimmage (not team touches, to be clear).
Snap counts, depth of target and type of touch (running back receptions are far more valuable than carries) are also important but will generally not be discussed here. This is pure market share. Consider this a primary tool for assessing waivers and trades.
Here’s the list. Be sure to select the current week, though all the weeks of the season will be archived, so you can get a multi-week sample on a player if you so desire. Also, I put great thought into providing these stats weekly. The objective is to respond quickly to present trends. Yearly stats smooth out to a somewhat meaningless middle. As our Gene McCaffrey so wisely says, “To be very right, you have to be willing to be very wrong.”
The big story this week is in New Orleans. Alvin Kamara hurt his knee, but the MRI revealed the injury was not serious, and he could play in Week 13. So at best, Devin Neal seems like a one-week proposition. (I don’t understand why the Saints are wasting carries on Kamara.) If Kamara is out, the matchup against the Dolphins seems promising, and the Saints did run a ton of plays (78) in Week 12. Neal put up over 11 PPR points (mostly receiving) in Kamara’s absence.
Jahmyr Gibbs seems to have seized the bell-cow role for Detroit. David Montgomery may not be happy about it, but how can you deny Gibbs touches after he carried them to the win against the Giants? We’ve been down this road before, though, and Montgomery seems to get more action after massive Gibbs games. It’s like a reverse indicator. It’s hard to overstate how the Lions seem to conflate Montgomery with their offensive identity. It’s quite bizarre.
Kareem Hunt finished fifth, and that doesn’t even factor in the massive amount of Chiefs offensive plays (91 — 63 is normal). He had over 100 rushing yards, but it was a grind. Still, you have to consider him at least a second-tier RB now.
I don’t get people complaining about Jonathan Taylor’s carries. He had 36% market share (sixth). The problem was a lack of snaps for Indy (50), and that problem was mostly rooted in the inability to get the Chiefs’ offense off the field.
Cleveland head coach Kevin Stefanski said Quinshon Judkins did not suffer a concussion and is “good to go,” so we probably won’t see much of Dylan Sampson. The Browns don’t run enough plays to support two RBs.
TreVeyon Henderson was 12th and over the RB1 target of 30%. He’s not a guarantee to get goal-line carries, but he’s also not a guarantee not to get them either. He should be started in all formats. This is a fluid situation, however.
Tyrone Tracy (15th) outpaced Devin Singletary (31st). Tracy seems to have a big edge as a receiver, so his touches are way more valuable, even if the gap is not this wide.
Rico Dowdle mostly had a snaps problem. The rest of it was game script. He was still very effective. His value is tethered to Bryce Young’s ability to keep the chains moving. You can’t rely on just explosive runs. Young has mostly been terrible in 2025. But if he’s just normal bad, Dowdle is probably a top-10 RB.
Kyle Monangai ranked ahead of D’Andre Swift in Week 12, but I doubt that’s predictive. He is 100% the goal-line back, though (TDs in three-straight games). But he’s a zero in the passing game.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba is the WR1 now, and Sam Darnold has to get a lot of credit for that, as does the Seahawks’ play design. JSN could reasonably be the No. 1 overall pick right now in Flex 10 formats (three WRs and a flex).
Wan’Dale Robinson was No. 2 and should be starting in your league, no matter who the QB is. The difference in intended air yards between Jameis Winston and Jaxson Dart is small, and Dart actually has a higher depth of target on completions.
Christian Watson at No. 3 means he’s the WR to roster in Green Bay, but Jayden Reed is due back. Remember, Reed does not play much in two-WR sets. I’d prefer Watson because he’s a better fit for the Packers’ boom-or-bust downfield passing game.
Michael Wilson was WR8. There’s no update on Marvin Harrison, but the base rate for his surgery indicates he could play in Week 13. Yes, this could crush Wilson’s value. But despite the unreal passing volume, the Cardinals, with Jacoby Brissett, have a very narrow passing tree — the best of both worlds. I don’t think we’ll go back to Wilson’s pre-Harrison injury market share.
Greg Dortch is the player who is playable/not-playable depending on Harrison’s status. We just don’t know enough to make a recommendation and probably won’t until Friday at the earliest. The passing volume with Brissett is very bettable (nothing is bankable).
Nico Collins didn’t even chart in Week 12. That’s just unbelievable. On top of that, C.J. Stroud is confirmed as the starter once he returns from his concussion, but he’s been out a longer-than-usual time already.
Jayden Higgins finished in the top 10 among WRs, and, while that usage will decline with more expected Collins targets, it still should be robust enough to land him in the top 40 in Week 13.
Chimere Dike was under 20%, but you can make a case that he’s the Titans’ WR1 and thus should be rostered. It doesn’t matter who the QB or the team is when a guy is a plausible top target. I’m also interested in Tennessee teammate Gunnar Helm, the TE who, like Dike, had seven targets and averaged more yards per target.
Andrei Iosivas is definitely in play if, as expected, Joe Burrow is back. We know Tee Higgins is out. I’d put Iosivas in the same bucket as Higgins this week. I understand Burrow may be very rusty. Remember, Ravens safety Kyle Hamilton (ankle) is potentially out.
Players hardly ever play the week after a hamstring injury (Rashee Rice), and Kansas City plays on Thursday. That would put Tyquan Thornton on the list, but the Chiefs seem to hate Thornton despite the frequency of his big plays per route run (27.2 air yards per target, 124.7 passer rating on targets, according to Pro Football Reference). There is no meritocracy in Kansas City.
The Jets have a passing game to mine for value. What? Yes, John Metchie and Adonai Mitchell, who both had seven targets and a 25% share, should be rostered. Metchie is more the drag guy, and Mitchell is the downfield guy. Tyrod Taylor is bad, but there is at least a likelihood of something approaching normal passing volume and yards with him at the controls. Metchie and Mitchell were recently highly-regarded second-round picks (in reality, not fantasy).
Parker Washington is widely available, and who knows when chronic disappointment Brian Thomas will return. Plus, Travis Hunter is out for the year. Thomas and Hunter have performed so poorly that they threaten to plunge the U.S. economy into a deep recession.
