With December only days away, the Major League Baseball offseason is already humming with activity. The Seattle Mariners did not wait long to dole out the first significant free-agent contract in the form of a five-year, $92.5 million reunion with first baseman Josh Naylor. But Naylor is far from the only player expected to cash in during these next few months.
Kyle Tucker headlines a free-agent class that lacks the generational talent of a Shohei Ohtani or a Juan Soto, but still features an intriguing level of pitching depth, several fascinating new arrivals from Japan and a collection of players who could, like Naylor, simply rejoin their former teams.
The point is, as always, there are a lot of good players available. Which allows us to engage in our annual Thanksgiving shopping ritual of putting together one Black Friday deal for every team. On occasion, we actually nail these predictions, but this is an imperfect exercise based on reporting, wishcasting and, very occasionally, some trolling.
We can’t predict every star signing with the Dodgers. We won’t assume Mets owner Steve Cohen will somehow sign both Tucker and Cody Bellinger. And we will engage in the fanciful notion that some of these clubs will actually spend. There will be some whiffs in here. But hopefully we can provide a blueprint for the rest of the winter.
The deals are listed in order from worst record (Colorado Rockies), all the way up to the best (Milwaukee Brewers).
Colorado Rockies (43-119): OF Chas McCormick
It might be nihilistic to suggest nothing that happens at the major-league level matters for the Rockies in 2026. But the challenge facing new head honcho Paul DePodesta is an existential one — can the Rockies, really, truly, finally compete at altitude — and the answers won’t be found in the free-agent market. DePodesta has to concentrate his energies on shoring up the club’s scouting, development and analytical departments, searching for cohesion to bring the Rockies up to speed. Figuring out how to prevent runs at Coors Field likely won’t involve a simple answer. But one theory advanced by rival executives, at least, involves the team finding a bunch of above-average fielders to handle the expansive outfield confines. McCormick can go get it at all three outfield positions and could use an offensive springboard after two miserable seasons at the plate in Houston.
Chicago White Sox (60-102): IF Luis Arraez
I couldn’t find a perfect fit for Arraez, because it’s hard to find a fit for such a player. Everyone knows the things he doesn’t do particularly well — run the bases, play the field, hit for power — and everyone knows the thing he does as well as anyone in baseball: hit singles. Since he debuted in 2019, Arraez has collected 805 singles, 71 more than the next most prolific singles hitter, Trea Turner. As the White Sox continue their rebuilding effort, it wouldn’t hurt to have a guy like Arraez, especially if his bat catches fire and he can be dealt for prospects in July.
Washington Nationals (66-96): 1B/OF Ryan O’Hearn
If the Nationals were using an old playbook, they might consider signing Pete Alonso to fill the void at first base and offer a veteran presence in a reprise of Mike Rizzo signing Jayson Werth after the 2010 season. But Paul Toboni was hired as president of baseball operations to resurrect the Nationals, not play a re-run. So the team might aim for a cheaper alternative. O’Hearn slumped after joining the Padres at the trade deadline, but still posted an .803 OPS with 17 home runs.
Minnesota Twins (70-92): RP Kenley Jansen
The Twins want to rebuild the bullpen and they don’t intend to spend much in the process. Luckily for them, there are bargains to be found. Aaron Gleeman of The Athletic did an excellent job laying out a dozen of them. Let’s go with the man at the top of the list, and the only one in this crew with a chance of reaching the Hall of Fame.
Pittsburgh Pirates (71-91): 3B Eugenio Suárez
The Pirates are making noise about wanting to spend. Ask anyone within shouting distance of the Monongahela River — actually, ask anyone who knows how to spell “Monongahela” — and they will tell you they will believe it when they see it. But if owner Bob Nutting is serious about authorizing some expenditures to not waste the early prime of Paul Skenes, there are plenty of players available to aid an offense that ranked last in home runs and slugging percentage in 2025. No Pirate hit more than 20 homers last season. Suárez matched a career-best mark with 49 dingers last season and has averaged 32 per year since 2021.
Los Angeles Angels (72-90): SP Tyler Mahle
The trade for Grayson Rodriguez delivered a pitcher with upside but injury risk. The Angels might as well roll the dice on things working out in 2026. New manager Kurt Suzuki is on a one-year deal alongside general manager Perry Minasian. Let it ride! Mahle posted a 2.18 in 2025 but made only 16 starts as he dealt with shoulder issues. He missed almost the entire summer for the Rangers, but made it back in time to put together two solid starts to showcase his health for potential suitors.
Baltimore Orioles (75-87): SP Zac Gallen
Zac Gallen has several strong seasons on his resume. Could he flourish again in Baltimore? (Matthew Stockman / Getty Images)
After finishing fifth in the National League Cy Young voting in 2022 and third in 2023, Gallen declined as he approached his 30s. His 4.83 ERA in 2025 might scare off some clubs. But the Orioles could use some stability in the rotation, especially after dealing away Grayson Rodriguez. Gallen has averaged more than 180 innings per season since 2022. His homer rate might stabilize if he leaves the National League West.
Athletics (76-86): SP/RP Nick Martinez
The Athletics are in the market at second and third base, but don’t expect Bo Bichette and Alex Bregman to be part of the future in Las Vegas. Any upgrades at those positions might be better served coming through trades. The pitching staff could use some help. Martinez can fill a variety of roles, and has been durable since returning from Japan in 2022.
Atlanta Braves (76-86): SP Dylan Cease
Alex Anthopoulos already engaged in one of his favorite offseason traditions, jumping the market with a one-year deal. This time he retained reliever Raisel Iglesias for $16 million. It will cost a lot more to land Cease. But Cease, who grew up in the suburbs of Atlanta, makes a lot of sense for the Braves. Spencer Strider made 23 starts in 2025 and Chris Sale made 20. An elbow fracture shortened the season of Spencer Schwellenbach. Cease, meanwhile, has made at least 32 starts every year since 2021. His stuff remains electric, even when his results fluctuate. A long-term pact with Cease is the sort of gamble the Braves can certainly afford to make.
Tampa Bay Rays (77-85): C Elias Díaz
The Rays would like to improve their catching depth. Díaz grades out as a better receiver than other options, such as Victor Caratini, James McCann and former Ray Danny Jansen. As much as I would like to predict a shocker — new owner Patrick Zalupski financing a bid for hometown hero Kyle Tucker! — let’s default to reality. Not all of these picks will be riveting. Speaking of the opposite of riveting …
St. Louis Cardinals (78-84): RP/SP Brad Keller
Yeah, man, I don’t know. The Cardinals should be active this winter, but that will mostly entail finding a new home for third baseman Nolan Arenado and seeing if there is a bonanza available in exchange for utility man Brendan Donovan. Chaim Bloom spoke about “hard decisions and short-term sacrifices” facing the club, so nine-figure expenditures sound unlikely. But Keller is an intriguing candidate to convert back to the starting rotation after an excellent season as a reliever for the Cubs in 2025.
Miami Marlins (79-83): IF Kazuma Okamoto
Hey, why not? The Marlins played a frisky, entertaining brand of baseball in 2025 under manager Clayton McCullough. President of baseball operations Peter Bendix is building something in Miami that is, at the very least, quite intriguing, as he attempts to create an organizational culture capable of knocking off teams such as the Phillies, Mets and Braves. It remains to be seen just how much owner Bruce Sherman will spend in free agency. Okamoto has less offensive upside than fellow newcomer Munetaka Murakami, but is considered a better defender, which is a crucial part of Miami’s strategy.
Arizona Diamondbacks (80-82): SP Merrill Kelly
This time last year, I suggested the Diamondbacks reunite with Paul Goldschmidt. Didn’t happen. But that doesn’t mean I’ll stop trying. Kelly went to high school and college in Arizona. After reviving his big-league hopes in Korea, he spent seven seasons as a Diamondback. His ties to the organization and the area are strong, even after being traded away this past summer.
San Francisco Giants (81-81): SP Framber Valdez
The idea of pairing up Valdez, one of the game’s best southpaw sinkerballers, with Logan Webb, the best right-handed sinkerballer, is too good to pass up. The Giants are expected to land one of the major free-agent pitchers this winter. The duo of Valdez and Webb could serve up plenty of grounders for elite fielders Matt Chapman, Willy Adames and others.
Texas Rangers (81-81): RP Ryan Helsley
By cutting loose outfielder Adolis García and catcher Jonah Heim, the Rangers freed up money to spend for 2026. By taking on the contract of Brandon Nimmo, owner Ray Davis saved some cash in 2026 while taking on more money in the long term. The team should lean into its pitching strength from 2025. Helsley combusted during his time with the Mets this past summer, but a good chunk of that failure could be chalked up to pitch tipping.
Kansas City Royals (82-80): OF Harrison Bader
Bader picked an excellent time for one of the best seasons of his career, as he should be able to capitalize on a weak market for center fielders. He hit 17 homers with a .796 OPS in 2025. The Royals are thirsting for better production from their outfielders, and always place a premium on defense at Kauffman Stadium. Bader is a good fit for a multi-year deal.
Cincinnati Reds (83-79): RP Emilio Pagán
Pagán rebounded from an ugly first season in Cincinnati to save 32 games with a 2.88 ERA in 2025. Might as well run it back. I’m sure Reds fans would prefer to read about Kyle Schwarber making a triumphant return to his hometown. This is the best homecoming I can offer you.
New York Mets (83-79): SP Tatsuya Imai
In the end, I suspect the Mets and Pete Alonso will find their way back to each other once again this winter, with a contract similar to the one from which Alonso just opted out. And I also suspect that president of baseball operations David Stearns will continue to use the trade market to improve his team’s defense, as he did by swapping outfielder Brandon Nimmo for second baseman Marcus Semien. Another way to improve run prevention: the acquisition of better pitching. Imai is entering his age-28 season, and demonstrated improved command during his final season in Nippon Professional Baseball. Important caveat: it’s easy to project Steve Cohen opening his wallet to bring Kyle Tucker to Queens, and I may look foolish for thinking otherwise.
Detroit Tigers (87-75): 3B Alex Bregman
If the Tigers aren’t going to trade Tarik Skubal, then they should try to win the World Series with him. The market for Bregman heading into 2026 should be similar to the market for his services heading into 2025. Detroit’s infield is crowded, but you can make room for a player with Bregman’s talent.
After Alex Bregman’s one-year Red Sox cameo, he could help another club trying to get over the hump, this time in Detroit. (John E. Sokolowski / Imagn Images)
Houston Astros (87-75): SP Ranger Suárez
Suárez lacks elite fastball velocity and he tends to top out around 150 innings each season. But those 150 innings are usually pretty excellent. He has produced a 3.59 ERA since 2022 while averaging 26 starts per season. He excels at missing barrels and producing weak contact. He is more of a craftsman than a flamethrower, which is the sort of pitching profile that ages well. And the Astros, as always, intend to contend and will be looking for someone to replace Framber Valdez.
Cleveland Guardians (88-84): OF Austin Hays
Cleveland rarely dips its toes deep into the free-agent pool, so we’re just following breadcrumbs here. A right-handed-hitting outfielder such as Hays would aid a team that features left-handed-hitting outfielders in Steven Kwan, George Valera and Chase DeLauter. Hays plays solid defense in the corners and mauled lefties in 2025.
Boston Red Sox (89-73): IF Munetaka Murakami
I placed Murakami with the Red Sox, in part, through the process of elimination. David Stearns says he wants to improve the Mets’ run-prevention machine, and Murakami doesn’t really grade as a defensive upgrade over Pete Alonso. The Dodgers don’t have a place in their lineup for him. I think the Phillies will re-up with another slugger you’ll read about shortly. So the best fit for Murakami, a 26-year-old with incredible power but glaring questions about his ability to make contact, might be the Red Sox.
San Diego Padres (90-72): SP Chris Bassitt
Approaching his 37th birthday, Bassitt is finishing up a three-year, $63 million deal that went well for both him and the Toronto Blue Jays. He made at least 31 starts each season. He put up a 3.89 ERA. He morphed into an essential reliever for manager John Schneider during the World Series run. His presence could stabilize the San Diego rotation. Yu Darvish will miss the season. Joe Musgrove is coming back from Tommy John surgery. Michael King may sign elsewhere. Bassitt is a veteran you can trust.
Seattle Mariners (90-72): IF Jorge Polanco
Part of what makes this offseason so interesting is that so many teams appear interested in re-signing free agents. Seattle already demonstrated as much. The five-year deal for Naylor demonstrated president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto’s desire to get the band back together. Polanco took some of the biggest swings for the Mariners during their run to the American League Championship Series.
Chicago Cubs (92-70): SP Michael King
The Cubs may well get out-bid for the services of King by a team more willing to pay top dollar for a talented pitcher who has not yet proved he can handle the rigor of a full season as a starter. But King has an elevated ceiling, perhaps the highest of any pitcher on the market, and likely won’t require a long-term deal.
Los Angeles Dodgers (93-79): RP Robert Suarez
“Need” is a relative term for a club coming off consecutive championships, so let’s go with the softer, less pressing, more optionality-friendly usage of “would like to.” The Dodgers would like to improve their outfield and find a closer. The team would prefer to get younger around the diamond, although that is a hard thing to accomplish through free agency. Tucker would be an excellent fit as the World’s Best Paid No. 5 Hitter, but the Dodgers may prefer to just drive up the price for someone else. Same story with Edwin Díaz: do the Dodgers really want to enter another long-term pact with a reliever after watching Tanner Scott combust in 2025? Of course, Díaz has a much more accomplished resume than Scott. But so does Suarez, and he’ll likely cost less, for fewer years, than Díaz. A splash — or, really, multiple splashes — is always possible for the Ohtani Era Dodgers, but let’s keep it more reasonable, for the purposes of this exercise.
New York Yankees (94-68): OF/1B Cody Bellinger
Cody Bellinger proved a good fit for the Yankees, and both sides could opt to continue the relationship. (Michael Reaves / Getty Images)
Bellinger proved to be an excellent fit during his first season in The Bronx, and the Yankees appear interested in making a long-term commitment. At 30, Bellinger has already been through so much in his career: from MVP to DFA to less flashy but still productive years with the Cubs and Yankees. His versatility in the field and adaptability at the plate make him a solid bet to stay productive during a lengthy deal.
Toronto Blue Jays (94-68): OF Kyle Tucker and IF Bo Bichette
The rare, two-for-one special for the low, low price of somewhere north of $500 million. Maybe north of $600 million. But the Blue Jays should go for it. The team came within a hair’s breadth of winning the World Series, and by all indications, owner Edward Rogers is willing to spend to keep the team’s championship window open. Toronto has played the bridesmaid for years in free agency, falling short on Ohtani, Soto and others, but I think this is the year the tide turns. Not only should the Blue Jays retain homegrown star Bichette, but they should win the bidding war for Tucker, a dynamic, two-way player who can complement face-of-the-franchise Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Philadelphia Phillies (96-66): DH Kyle Schwarber
If Schwarber departs in free agency, the Phillies could pivot and find ways to replace aspects of his production through other avenues. But why mess with a good thing? I would be shocked if owner John Middleton and president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski let themselves get outbid.
Milwaukee Brewers (97-65): IF Willi Castro
The thing about the 97-win Brewers is they have strong pitching depth and a position-player group without obvious holes. Yes, it would be nice to upgrade at shortstop over Joey Ortiz, whose hitting took a plunge in 2025, but I don’t suspect the team will be absorbing Corey Seager’s salary any time soon. Any significant upgrades to the roster would likely come through the return package if — and that remains a big “if” — the front office decides to move starter Freddy Peralta. Even if the team stands pat, the future looks bright.
