Under the measures, an electric car driver clocking up 8,500 miles in the 2028-29 financial year is expected to pay about £255 – about half the cost per mile that petrol and diesel drivers pay in fuel tax.
According to the OBR, the new per-mile charge is expected to bring in £1.1bn in the 2028-29 financial year, rising to £1.9bn by 2030-31.
However, how much money it actually raises will depend on how many people buy electric cars over the next five years, with the report adding the yield “is uncertain”.
All new cars will have to be electric or hybrid from 2030, when a ban on the sale of new petrol and diesel cars comes into force. But some in the industry argue this new tax could make electric cars less appealing.
The OBR said the new charge was “likely to reduce demand for electric cars as it increases their lifetime cost”.
“To meet the mandate, manufacturers would therefore need to respond through lowering prices or reducing sales of non-EV vehicles,” it added.
Overall, the charge is forecast to result in about 440,000 fewer electric car sales, though other government policies could help offset around 130,000 of those.
Because of this drop in sales and slightly lower driving distances, the total money raised by the charge could be £200m less by 2030-31.
