No. 1 Ohio State heads into Ann Arbor at 11-0 with everything in front of them: a Big Ten title spot, playoff seeding and even QB Julian Sayin’s Heisman hopes hanging in the balance.
No. 18 Michigan has won four straight and would love nothing more than to play spoiler on a perfect season.
The real hook in this matchup is less Buckeyes versus Wolverines, and more Buckeyes versus the limits of what Michigan can actually dictate.
All odds by ESPN BET
No. 1 Ohio State at No. 18 Michigan
Saturday, 12 p.m. ET, FOX
Line: OSU; -9.5
Money line: Ohio State (-425), Michigan (+320)
Over/Under: 44.5 (O -105, U -115)
Michigan: a good team with no game state that actually favors it
Michigan has one thing going for it: the run game is real. Jordan Marshall and Justice Haynes have combined for over 1,600 yards and 6.5 yards per carry, the line is physical enough and when the game sits on script, they can move bodies. Problem is: Haynes is doubtful. It was already a run game that can be neutralized. Even more now. We’ve already seen it. Oklahoma compressed the Wolverines, and USC hit gaps with speed. When Michigan loses the leverage battle early, the entire playbook shrinks. Michigan’s run game can’t create explosives on its own because it relies on the larger ecosystem working.
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Defensively, Michigan is good, but it’s not special. It doesn’t have that overwhelming unit that suffocates teams on every down. The Wolverines pressure quarterbacks, but it’s more about volume pressure than value. They hit, force QBs to hurry, but don’t consistently convert those pressures into game-breaking moments. Their coverage is the softest part of the structure, and the wrong opponent, one with real passing efficiency, can stress them until something breaks (as witnessed vs. USC, when the Wolverines gave up 8.3 yards per pass, 2 yards above their average allowed).
And this leads to Michigan’s two problems that can’t be fixed in time to face the Buckeyes. For one, the Wolverines can’t play from behind. Secondly, they don’t have a single signature win that proves otherwise. Two losses against the Sooners and Trojans, zero points scored in the opening quarter, seven points combined in the first half.
When the game tilts away from their preferred script, things become harder: protections, reads, spacing, explosives and red zone finishing. There’s no data point showing that Michigan can survive a scoring race.
So the real question becomes: What game state gives Michigan any edge? Answer: None that Ohio State doesn’t already control better.
Realistically, the only way Michigan wins is if it dominates early downs and finishes drives, while also forcing Ohio State into a turnover-heavy, time-of-possession disaster. Even then, the Wolverines must hope the Buckeyes’ receiver group, led by arguably the nation’s best player in Jeremiah Smith, fails to exploit Michigan’s coverage defense.
The premise is simple: Some teams are built to win and some teams are built to bury inferior opponents.
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Ohio State falls into the second category. Everything about their profile says they suffocate opponents.
It starts with the red zone defense. They’ve allowed just 19 total opponent trips, and only seven touchdowns, in 12 games. That number alone swings game scripts. Michigan needs drives to end in touchdowns just to keep pace. The run defense and tackling tell the same story. Ohio State is sixth in run-defense grade and seventh in tackling, which is exactly what you want when facing a Michigan offense that needs 4-yard stability to function.
Every stat widens the mismatch. Points per play, yards per play, passing success, drive efficiency, EPA — Ohio State clears Michigan in every high-leverage category.
The part I keep coming back to is how many ways Ohio State can cover 9.5. The Buckeyes can win through passing explosives to Smith and Carnell Tate (both expected back from injury), red zone match, defensive stops, early-down efficiency or simply forcing Michigan to play from behind and throw.
Ohio State is elite relative to Michigan, and that’s enough to cover this number.
Betting trends
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Michigan has covered in four straight games versus Ohio State (all outright wins, three of which as the underdog); it’s tied for the longest streak in the series by either team since the FBS/FCS split (Ohio State covered four straight from 1986-89).
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Ohio State is 8-1 ATS against ranked teams since the start of last season, which is third best in the FBS (minimum five games) behind Arizona State (7-0) and Boston College (6-0).
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The over has hit in seven straight meetings in this series played at Michigan (dating back to 2011).
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Michigan is 0-3 ATS since 2019 as a home underdog of 7-plus points (minus-29.3 PPG differential).
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Ohio State is 10-3 ATS in November or later since the start of last season, second best among Power 4 teams (Arizona State, 9-1).
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