- Curious whether Intel is a hidden value play or just riding the latest wave? You are not alone, and this is the perfect moment to take a closer look.
- Intel’s stock jumped 6.7% in the last week, bouncing back after a rough month where shares slid 11.0%. It is still up 82.0% year to date.
- Shares have been in the spotlight as investors react to Intel’s aggressive push into AI accelerator chips and renewed momentum in U.S. semiconductor policy, both fueling optimism about its long-term positioning. With big headlines surrounding chip shortages and Intel’s expanded partnerships, it is no wonder the stock has been on the move.
- When you look at the numbers, Intel currently earns a 3 out of 6 valuation score. This reflects areas where the market thinks it is undervalued and a few where caution might be warranted. Let’s dig deeper into how those checks stack up, and stay tuned as we will also unpack a more powerful way to think about what Intel is really worth later in the article.
Intel delivered 53.1% returns over the last year. See how this stacks up to the rest of the Semiconductor industry.
Approach 1: Intel Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis
A Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis estimates a company’s value by projecting its future cash flows and then discounting those figures back to today using a required rate of return. This model helps investors gauge what a business is really worth, based on its ability to generate money in the years ahead.
For Intel, the current Free Cash Flow (FCF) stands at a negative $13.65 Billion, reflecting the company’s heavy recent investments and ongoing transformation. Analyst estimates suggest this trend will reverse, with cash flows improving each year and turning positive by 2027. By 2029, projections call for $4.32 Billion in FCF, and by 2035, Simply Wall St extrapolates the number out to $10.95 Billion, all in $USD.
Using these two-phase projections, the DCF model arrives at an intrinsic value of $14.88 per share for Intel. Comparing this to the current share price, the stock appears to be 147.3% overvalued according to this model.
Result: OVERVALUED
Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests Intel may be overvalued by 147.3%. Discover 928 undervalued stocks or create your own screener to find better value opportunities.
INTC Discounted Cash Flow as at Nov 2025
Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for Intel.
Approach 2: Intel Price vs Sales
For companies like Intel that are in the midst of major business transformation and investing heavily in future growth, using the Price-to-Sales (P/S) ratio is a practical way to gauge value. Sales figures tend to be more stable than earnings during periods of volatility, making the P/S ratio especially useful for semiconductor companies, which can see big swings in profitability as they ramp up investment or navigate industry cycles.
Investor expectations around growth and risk are key when it comes to what counts as a fair P/S multiple. If a company is expected to deliver strong revenue growth or has lower risk, it may trade at a higher multiple. Conversely, sluggish growth or greater risk can justify a lower multiple compared to peers.
As of now, Intel’s P/S ratio stands at 3.29x. This is well below the peer average of 14.01x and the semiconductor industry’s average of 4.60x. However, benchmarks do not always tell the full story. That is where Simply Wall St’s proprietary “Fair Ratio” comes in. It adjusts for factors like Intel’s growth outlook, market cap, risk profile, and profit margins to give a more tailored yardstick. For Intel, the Fair Ratio is calculated at 5.59x, reflecting a more nuanced picture than simply lining up against the competition.
Because the Fair Ratio captures a holistic view of Intel’s fundamentals and future prospects, it offers a more reliable benchmark than one-size-fits-all industry or peer averages. Comparing Intel’s current P/S of 3.29x to its Fair Ratio of 5.59x suggests the stock is trading at a meaningful discount based on its sales and outlook.
Result: UNDERVALUED
NasdaqGS:INTC PS Ratio as at Nov 2025
PS ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Discover 1439 companies where insiders are betting big on explosive growth.
Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your Intel Narrative
Earlier we mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation, so let’s introduce you to Narratives. Narratives are a powerful, approachable tool that let you define your own story about a company by combining your perspective on Intel’s strategy, industry trends, and potential, and tying that story directly to a set of future earnings, revenue, and margin forecasts. From this, a fair value is calculated.
In simple terms, a Narrative links what is driving Intel’s business to a dynamic financial forecast, then boils it down to what you believe Intel is really worth. This helps you see when the share price aligns (or does not) with your view. Available on Simply Wall St’s Community page, Narratives are used by millions of investors to make more informed decisions and are automatically updated when new news or results surface, so your view of Intel’s fair value is always evolving.
This approach helps you decide how your Narrative’s fair value compares to the actual price right now, and lets you explore different perspectives, from the most optimistic valuation (for example, $28.3 per share) to the most cautious one (as low as $14.0), all rooted in a clear story and evidence-based assumptions about Intel’s future.
For Intel, we have made it simple for you with previews of two leading Intel Narratives:
🐂 Intel Bull Case
Fair Value: $37.27
Undervalued by 1.2%
Expected Revenue Growth: 5.6%
- Analysts expect measured progress in AI and the foundry business, with a focus on streamlining operations and improving margin performance over the next several years.
- The consensus sees margin expansion from negative 38.6% to 8.9% in 3 years, with earnings returning to positive territory and eventually reaching $5.2 billion by 2028.
- Despite potential execution and market risks, most price targets cluster near the current share price, indicating Intel is fairly valued under this scenario if execution improves and growth resumes.
🐻 Intel Bear Case
Fair Value: $28.47
Overvalued by 29.2%
Expected Revenue Growth: 5.9%
- Intel faces major manufacturing execution risks in its effort to catch up technologically, and previous delays still cast a shadow on its ambitions.
- Competition from AMD and Nvidia is intense, especially in CPUs and AI accelerators, threatening Intel’s traditional market dominance and future growth prospects.
- Even with strategic moves and restructuring, the bear case sees Intel’s current valuation outpacing its fundamentals, with persistent business and market headwinds.
Do you think there’s more to the story for Intel? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!
NasdaqGS:INTC Community Fair Values as at Nov 2025
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data
and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your
financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.
Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.
Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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