The Matchup: New Jersey Devils (15-7-1) @ Buffalo Sabres (9-10-4)
The Broadcast: MSG, Devils Radio Network
On Thanksgiving Eve, the Devils hosting the moribund St. Louis Blues. It took overtime, but Simon Nemec came up big again in a 3-2 OT victory at The Rock. Timo Meier and Nico Hischier were the other goal scorers, while Jacob Markstrom got the win while stopping 21 of 23 shots.
Buffalo was also in action on Wednesday, losing 4-2 to the Pittsburgh Penguins. Jason Zucker and Jack Quinn led the way for the Sabres with a goal and an assist each, while Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen made 15 saves on 18 shots.
Starting Strong, But Fading Fast
New Jersey’s win on Wednesday was eerily similar to Monday’s victory over the Detroit Red Wings. According to Natural Stat Trick, at 5-on-5 the Devils won the Scoring Chances and High Danger Chances battles 15-6 and 8-2 respectively in the first period on Monday. Wednesday’s opening frame was even better, with the Devils holding an advantage in Scoring Chances by a shocking margin of 18-3, while winning High Danger Chances 7-1.
It was all downhill from there, though. After the first period on Monday, New Jersey lost the Scoring Chances battle 21-10 and the High Danger battle 9-3. Then on Wednesday, after the first period the Devils were outdone in Scoring Chances 7-5 and in High Danger Chances 3-0. You read that right: A team that posted seven High Danger Chances in the first period couldn’t even muster up a single HDCF at 5-on-5 the rest of the way. To be fair, the Even Strength numbers would look better for New Jersey considering how Wednesday’s overtime period went. Still, it was discouraging to see the Devils fade so badly after terrific first periods in their last two contests. For all the troubles this team has had starting games on time, the previous two contests were the opposite.
So one of the overall goals for today’s game should be simple: Find a way to put together a full 60-minute effort. Against a Buffalo team that enters below NHL .500, the Devils should (emphasis on should) be able to do that. Then again the Blues have been one of the worst teams in the league this season and New Jersey couldn’t do it against them, so who knows.
I cannot emphasize enough just how important it would be for the Devils to have Jacob Markstrom playing good hockey again. His struggles (and battles with injuries) this season have been well-documented, and for good reason. The man general manager Tom Fitzgerald just gave a two-year extension to was starting to look like a real concern, with Jake Allen slowly taking over 1A duties for an ineffective Markstrom.
But this week, Markstrom has been much, much better. On Monday he stopped 32 of 35 shots, and on Wednesday it was 21 of 23. Add it up and you have 53 saves on 58 shots, good for a cumulative save percentage of .914. And lest you think he was just facing a bunch of perimeter beach balls the past two games, Natural Stat Trick had him at 2.08 Goals Saved Above Expected on Monday and 0.26 GSAA on Wednesday. Sure, Wednesday’s numbers tell us he basically did his job, but coming out a little ahead on GSAA is still good work. But it was on Monday where Markstrom really shined, especially in the third period where, according to NST, Detroit posted 2.07 Expected Goals in all situations. He was clutch when the Devils needed him to be clutch. New Jersey does not snap their three-game losing streak without a stellar performance from Markstrom.
So does this mean that Markstrom is back? The answer, of course, is that it is too early to tell. Two great games is encouraging, but we’ll need more of a sample size to determine whether the Devils have their 1A back in prime form. We also don’t know if Markstrom actually gets the start today, but with this being the front end of a back-to-back, we will almost certainly see Markstrom again over the next two days at some point. And when we do see him, I would love to see him post a third great game in a row.
Devils captain Nico Hischier started the season extremely well, but then went through a prolonged slump in which he was not producing and not winning his matchups (case in point, he scored one goal in 14 games from October 18 to November 15). Even the greatest of players go through droughts from time to time, it happens. But what made it particularly concerning was that he was in the midst of his downturn when New Jersey’s other star center, Jack Hughes, went down with his injury. If Hughes was going to be on the shelf for a couple months, then Hischier really, really needed to find his game again, or the Devils could have been in serious trouble.
Well over his last seven games, Hischier has been starting to look like himself once more. He has five goals and 10 points over those seven games, terrific production. Perhaps equally as encouraging, Hischier is driving play against top competition again too.
New Jersey’s center depth is still perilously thin behind Hischier, so while he’s been contributing in a major way, he can’t do it all. Still, the Devils have been staying afloat without Hughes, which is a major accomplishment considering just how big a blow Hughes’ injury is. And while there are plenty of contributors that have helped since Hughes’ injury, Hischier is, in my opinion, at the top of the list.
It is shaping up to be yet another lost season in upstate New York. The Sabres enter this game as one of only five teams below NHL .500. In a league with a loser point, that is very hard to do.
So how have they gotten to this point? Mostly due to middling play and some bad luck. The Sabres have given up 79 goals thus far, tied for seventh-most in the league. Their starter this season, Alex Lyon, actually hasn’t been that bad, posting a .907 save percentage in his 12 games. That hasn’t really helped Buffalo much though, as he’s still only 3-5-3 despite those respectable stats. But when Lyon doesn’t start, the Sabres are really in trouble. Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen has been the man in Buffalo over the past few seasons, but in seven games thus far, he’s posted a woeful .891 save percentage. Colten Ellis has started the remaining three games Buffalo has played, and he hasn’t been much better with an .896 sv%.
Taking a look at some of the 5-on-5 numbers at Natural Stat Trick, it does seem like the defense has been holding up alright:
Corsi Against per 60: 62.08 (28th in the league)
Shots Against per 60: 28.96 (26th)
Scoring Chances Against per 60: 26.09 (15th)
High Danger Corsi Against per 60: 11.04 (15th)
Expected Goals For per 60: 2.6 (14th)
Aside from the Corsi Against and Shots Against numbers, Buffalo hasn’t been all that porous defensively. This would lead me to believe that the goaltending has been by far the biggest culprit in them allowing so many goals. After all, we just saw how the non-Lyon goalies on this squad have been under .900 in save percentage this season, so it has to be the goaltending, right? Well according to NST…not really? Lyon is in the black in Goals Saved Above Expected, and Luukkonen and Ellis really aren’t that far below the breakeven mark.
What are we to make of this? Perhaps it’s this: According to MoreHockeyStats.com, the Sabres have allowed a league-leading nine empty-net goals. In other words, it seems that Buffalo is in a lot of close games late, and they have really struggled with not only finding the equalizer, but keeping the opponent out of their empty net.
So in the end, I would say do not let Buffalo’s poor goal numbers fool you. This is a team that, while not the ‘85 Bears, is reasonable defensively. The empty-net goals really skew things.
Meanwhile, the Sabres are led by a lot of the usual suspects: Tage Thompson and Alex Tuch are tied for the team lead with 21 points each (12 goals for Thompson, eight for Tuch). Rasmus Dahlin, who has gone through a very trying past few months with his fiance’s major health concerns, is back on the ice and is up to 16 points (though only one goal). It is very, very impressive that Dahlin has been performing to the level he has been considering all that his family has been going through lately. Best wishes to Carolina Matovac as she recovers from her heart issues.
The gameplan for the Devils against the Sabres should be to shut down the big boys, play structured, and hope that they enter the final few minutes of the third with a lead, considering how bad the Sabres have been at 6-on-5 this season.
What are you anticipating out of today’s game? What sort of changes might you want to see? What are you expecting out of the Sabres? As always, thanks for reading!
