Who steps up without Rome Odunze, Luther Burden? Bears mailbag, plus Week 16 picks – The Athletic

The Chicago Bears enter Week 16 in first place in the NFC North. They’ve also won only one game in the NFC North.

They’re 1-3 in the division with games remaining at home against the Green Bay Packers and Detroit Lions. It’s setting up for a possible statistical anomaly.

Credit to editor David DeChant for digging this up, but the only team since 2000 to win its division with fewer than three wins in the division was the 2010 Kansas City Chiefs, who went 2-4 in the AFC West, but their 10-6 record was enough to clinch the division. They went on to lose to the Baltimore Ravens in the wild-card round 30-7.

There is an unlikely scenario that exists — if the Bears lose to the Packers and Lions, but beat the 49ers, and the Packers and Lions go 1-2 in their final three (with the lone win being over the Bears), then Chicago will top the NFC North with a 1-5 record in the NFC North.

This has been a season of quirks for the Bears, statistically speaking. But the only stat that matters is what’s in the win column. They’ve got 10 and can get a massive one Saturday night against their rivals.

Now, on to your questions.

Note: Submitted questions have been edited for clarity and length.

What will happen to the passing attack without Rome Odunze and Luther Burden III? I hope I see a lot of tight ends and not too much Olamide Zaccheaus. — Nathan B.

The Bears rank seventh in the league in “12 personnel” frequency, with 29.9 percent of their plays coming with two tight ends on the field. They’ve run 7.3 percent of plays in “13 personnel” with Durham Smythe as the third tight end. That ranks sixth.

Against the Cleveland Browns, without Odunze and with Burden exiting the game, the Bears ran 37.5 percent of their plays with two tight ends and 18.8 percent with three. That could give us a sign of what may come against the Packers. The extra tight ends can help in the run game, while also improving the protection for Caleb Williams. Colston Loveland having receiver-like qualities helps mitigate the drop-off in the passing game. He’s also been playing at a very high level.

At wide receiver, rookie Jahdae Walker will likely be active, Devin Duvernay will get some snaps, and maybe Maurice Alexander or JP Richardson will be called up from the practice squad.

“I’ve been really pleased with that room,” coach Ben Johnson said Thursday. “I think we’ve got some young guys in there that we were really impressed with throughout training camp that ended up on being on the practice squad. If called upon, I think they’ve done a great job soaking the offense in over the course of the season so far and being involved.”

With that said, expect Zaccheaus to be on the field a lot. He’ll be second to DJ Moore in snaps. Zaccheaus knows the offense, and Williams is comfortable throwing him the ball. Hopefully for the Bears, “OZ” can show more of what we saw in camp, when he was a star, caught everything and made big plays for the offense. But he leads the team with five drops this season, per Pro Football Focus. It’s pretty safe, too, to expect Moore to be more productive than in the Week 14 matchup.

I’m fascinated to see the defensive game plan after the first matchup was mostly solid ‘D’ with a few broken plays that resulted in big gains and touchdowns. Does Dennis Allen dial up the QB pressure with more blitzes or fall back and keep plays underneath? — Jake U.

The Bears blitzed Jordan Love on 42.3 percent of dropbacks, their third-highest blitz rate of the season, per TruMedia. Love feasted, however, with a 1.00 EPA (expected points added) against the extra rusher.

Love also threw a touchdown on a play when the Bears showed blitz and dropped eight in coverage.

The key is figuring out how to get to Love quickest. Maybe instead of rushing seven or eight, Allen brings a fifth player from an angle where he can get a free route to the quarterback. Otherwise, when rushing four, the Bears will want their interior players to dent the pocket.

“He’s very difficult to get to,” Johnson said of Love. “He does a great job drifting away from the pressure. I think they do a great job in their protection scheme in terms of looking to keep the pocket clean. They do a lot of chips on the edges to slow down your edge rushers, so you’re looking for your interior to get a little push.

The Bears blitzed Jordan Love on 42.3 percent of dropbacks in their first meeting this season. (Patrick McDermott / Getty Images)

“But yet when you do that, he can still find a way to buy a little bit of time, and he has a knack with the speed he has at receiver to float that ball out there in front of them and throw them open.”

Allen will certainly look to mix it up with the hope that Love won’t know where the pressure is coming from, but the best way to impact him will be getting quick pressure from the defensive line and counting on better coverage than the Bears showed at Lambeau.

Can you take your Time Machine back to training camp and tell us what has gone the most right and unexpected — to get to 10-4? — Duke M.

The offense’s efficiency and ability to find explosive plays stand out the most as a contrast from what we saw in training camp. The unit was often inconsistent and unable to sustain drives. The passing game needed work. We saw a lot of penalties — granted, false starts have been an issue this season, but for the most part, that’s under control. While Williams’ accuracy remains well below where Johnson wanted it to be, he’s found a way to hit on big plays while continuing to avoid turnovers. The run game, which is very difficult to judge in training camp, has become one of the league’s best.

Johnson said then that they’d be playing their best football in December. He elaborated Thursday on what gave him that faith.

“I think any time your first year of a program you’re hopeful that that’s going to be the case as guys get more comfortable in terms of what you’re coaching and what you’re expecting,” he said. “And so that’s certainly been the case with our veteran players. But we have a number of young players that early on it’s a lot. And at this point, I think that they’re able to go out and play fast. We trust them as a coaching staff. They’ve earned that.

“… But when you see them in training camp, and you see where we came from early on in camp to the end of camp, I mean, I think it’s not that bold of a statement to say that we’re going to be playing some pretty good football here at the end of the year.”

Does Kevin Warren think anyone takes his Northwest Indiana threat seriously? — Stephen W.

He probably does and is hoping it will help pressure Illinois politicians to pass legislation to get the stadium done. Otherwise, what’s the point?

Wait, sorry, I’m getting word that Warren’s open letter was “not about leverage.” Oh.

Well, anyway, go read Dan’s story on the latest in the stadium saga that will never end (or even begin) and Jon’s column.

Kevin, I have a wedding Saturday. My wife is the maid of honor. If you were in my position, how would you get out of the wedding? — Bryan P.

Who has a wedding during football season? And when you got that invite, who would’ve thought it’d overlap with not just any Bears-Packers game, but the Bears-Packers game.

Before I give you my thoughts, I enlisted Paul Pabst, Bears fan and executive producer of “The Dan Patrick Show.” This is in his wheelhouse:

“Wow. I don’t foresee a move to get out of this wedding. The only way would be if your wife suggested that you can miss it to watch the Bears. Beyond that, do your research. Does the reception venue have an adjacent bar with a TV? Is there a pub nearby? Can you stream the game on your phone … if so, bring a backup phone charger. Missing the game cannot be an option.”

I’m with Paul — you’ve got to go to the wedding. And remember, if the Bears are going to be playoff contenders for multiple years, build up a little cache for yourself if you want to skip another life event for a bigger game.

Make it a bonding event and gather around the phone with the clearest stream. Or, if you want to go incognito, bring some earbuds and listen to Jeff Joniak and Tom Thayer.

Bears-Packers … facts

• The Packers lead the all-time series 109-96-6. They’ve won 30 of the last 36 meetings since Aaron Rodgers took over as the starter in 2008.
• Since 2011, the Packers are 13-1 against the Bears at Soldier Field and are on a six-game win streak in Chicago.
• Following Green Bay’s win in Week 14, Love is 4-1 in the rivalry. He has thrown nine touchdowns and two picks, and has a passer rating of 121.0. That’s his highest passer rating against any opponent he’s faced more than once.
• The Bears are 10-15-1 all-time in Saturday games. They’ve lost three in a row on Saturday, with their last win coming in 1996.
• This will be only the second Bears game on a Saturday night in franchise history. The other was the season opener in the 1970 season, a 24-16 win over the New York Giants.

Game picks: Bears (+1) vs. Packers, 7:20 p.m. CT on Fox

Kevin Fishbain: Bears 25, Packers 22

(10-4 straight up, 6-8 against the spread)

This is a vibes pick more than anything. The Bears are coming off a blowout win, will have home-field advantage, have a tougher remaining schedule and revenge on their minds. I also trust Johnson and Allen to make the proper adjustments from the Week 14 defeat, which is a weird thing to say about a Bears coaching staff, but it’s a new era, one with a late December game that has serious playoff ramifications. Enjoy it, Bears fans.

Dan Wiederer: Bears 23, Packers 21

(8-6, 8-6)

This just feels like the perfect stage for the next big step in the Bears’ breakthrough. A prime-time home game against the rival Packers just 13 days removed from a tough-to-swallow loss at Lambeau Field. These aren’t win-or-else stakes for the Bears. But it sure feels like a well-timed test of legitimacy, and there’s every reason to believe the Bears will be prepared. It helps to be at home. It helps that Micah Parsons isn’t playing. It helps that the Bears have Johnson at the helm. A victory Saturday would electrify the city.

Dan Pompei: Bears 24, Packers 21

(10-4, 9-5)

The home team gets an edge on a short week against a beat-up opponent. And it’s a different game from two weeks ago without Parsons, who had seven pressures and two hits on Williams. What the Packers will miss most in his absence is the way he affected the Bears’ game plan and play calls. After that game, Parsons said he was surprised by how conservative the Bears were late in the game. After this game, without the Bears having to worry about him, he may find himself surprised at how aggressive they were.

Jon Greenberg: Bears 27, Packers 24

(9-5, 6-8)

The way this season is mirroring 2018, I have faith the Bears will win this game. That year, the Bears beat Green Bay to clinch a playoff berth at home. Of course, the Packers were a sub-.500 team in the middle of a 3-7 post-bye swoon that cost Mike McCarthy his job. They’re a little better these days. But I like what I’m hearing out of Halas Hall (at least from the football side), and I think they find a way to win.

Matt Schneidman (Packers beat writer): Packers 27, Bears 21

Johnson said in January that he enjoyed beating Matt LaFleur twice a year, but it’ll be LaFleur beating Johnson twice this year. The Packers let the rest of the NFL know they’re not going down without a fight, even sans Parsons, and Love moves to 3-0 at Soldier Field. Didn’t Rodgers say he transferred ownership, anyway?