Icicles hang down from a vehicle after a winter storm in January 2025. The storm occurred in spite of a weak La Niña event, which normally results in warmer and drier weather across Texas.
Brett Coomer/Staff photographer
We’re more than halfway done with meteorological fall, but so far the season has felt much more like an extension of summer.
Since Sept. 1, San Antonio has recorded an average high temperature of 91.9 degrees, which is only three degrees cooler than the city’s average temperature during June, July and August this year. We’re also on track for San Antonio’s eighth-warmest fall of all-time, including what could end up being the city’s second-warmest October.
Will our unusually warm fall carry over into winter? Last week, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration released its official winter outlook, outlining the specific odds that Texas could experience a colder or warmer winter season than what we normally experience. Here’s a look at what the outlook says.
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NOAA’s winter outlook shows that above-average temperatures are favored across much of the southern United States.
Climate Prediction Center
NOAA winter outlook
For most of the southern United States, including nearly all of Texas, NOAA’s outlook favors warmer weather during meteorological winter, which runs from Dec. 1 through Feb. 28.
However, that doesn’t mean Texas is guaranteed a mild winter. The outlook is based on probabilities not certainties. For San Antonio specifically, the outlook shows a 41% chance of above-average temperatures, a 33% chance of near-average temps, and a 26% chance of below-average temps this winter.
So if you’re a cold weather fan, you still have some reason for optimism. Even though the odds lean towards a warmer winter in South Texas, we still have roughly a one-in-four chance of a colder winter than average.
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The likelihood of a colder winter gradually increases farther north. Austin has a 28% chance of below-average temperatures, Waco sits at 30%, and Dallas has a 33% chance of a colder winter.
As for precipitation, much of Central, South and West Texas are favored to be drier than normal this winter. In San Antonio, NOAA’s outlook calls for a 42% chance of below-average rainfall, a 33% chance of near-normal precipitation, and a 25% chance of wetter weather.
Effects of La Niña
NOAA’s outlook is characteristic of winter during La Niña, which NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center says has officially returned and is likely to persist through the winter.
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During La Niña, a semi-permanent system of high atmospheric pressure typically forms in the northern Pacific Ocean, which forces the polar jet stream farther north. This positioning means that Texas often experiences less frequent cold fronts during La Niña winters, leading to warmer and drier weather.
La Niña tends to produce warmer and drier weather for us in Texas, often leading to above-normal warmth in winter.
NOAA/National Weather Service
In San Antonio, about 65% of La Niña winters since 1950 have produced above-average temperatures, averaging 1.3 degrees warmer than non-La Niña winters. Rainfall also tends to be lower, with San Antonio averaging just 4.07 inches of precipitation, which is 28% drier than in non-La Niña winters.
It should be noted that while cold fronts are less frequent during La Niña winters, strong fronts can still occur and cause widespread freezing temperatures. The historic February 2021 Texas freeze, for example, occurred during La Niña.
Farmers’ Almanac forecast
The Farmers’ Almanac forecast for the 2025-26 winter promises cold and wet weather across Texas.
Farmers’ Almanac
The Farmers’ Almanac, which has been publishing seasonal weather forecasts since 1818, has a much different view for the upcoming winter season. They say that this winter is “shaping up to be a wild ride,” adding that Texas can expect a “wetter-than-average winter with periodic cold snaps.”
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The almanac’s long-range forecast also highlights several opportunities for snow across northern Texas, while chances appear lower for the southern half of the state.
However, the Farmers’ Almanac doesn’t have the strongest track record for accuracy. A University of Illinois study found its monthly precipitation forecasts to be correct about 52% of the time, and its temperature forecasts just 51% of the time. Basically, it’s marginally better than flipping a coin.
