The Sixers are back, and so is my yearly 10 Bold Predictions for the Sixers Season column, which I’ve unintentionally forgotten to do for the past couple years. Sorry about that! But now that we are on the precipice of the most unpredictable season in all my years following the team, I figured this would be the perfect time to bring it back.
As always, some of these are a bit arbitrary, but I’ll do my best to grade these fairly when I look back on them at the end of the year. Let’s begin!
When Sixers fans talk about Maxey’s 2025 season being a disappointment – where he missed the All-Star team after making it for the first time in 2023-24 – I think there’s a lack of acknowledgement for how much progress he made as the season went along. In reality, the only time that Maxey truly struggled last year was at the very beginning of the year, when the team got out to a 1-6 start with him in the lineup before he injured his hamstring.
After returning to full health, Maxey helped lead the team to a 17-19 record before suffering more injuries in late February that ultimately ended his season. During that stretch, he averaged 28.5 points, 6.8 assists, and 1.9 steals per game on relatively solid efficiency. I think a lightbulb went off for him at some point around December of last season in terms of what it takes to carry the load as a No. 1 option; Maxey acknowledged this publicly in his media day press conference.
Between the experience that last year afforded him, an improved supporting cast and overall better vibes, I expect Maxey to have a career year and make the All-Star team. It wouldn’t shock me if he made third team All-NBA this year.
Also: It’s worth noting that the team seems to have made a conscious effort to build everything around Maxey this year. He is the undisputed leader of the locker room, and the offense revolves primarily around him. That should make a difference here, as well. Even with Embiid on the floor Friday night, much of what they used the big fella for was opening things up for Maxey and the other guards. Which leads me to my next prediction…
For context, Joel played 19 games last season, averaging 23.8 points and 4.5 assists. The gist of this prediction is that 1) I expect Joel to be healthier this season, but still not as durable or explosive as he was pre-injuries, and 2) I expect the Sixers’ offense to change in a way that allows Embiid to operate more as a passer and play-finisher as opposed to the sole shot creator. If you think I’m being pessimistic here, consider the fact that I’m predicting a huge bump in his assist totals. I’m expecting a much different Joel, not a much worse Joel.
Utilizing Embiid largely as a dribble hand-off partner and a high-post passing hub, as they did in their final pre-season game Friday night, where he only scored 14 points but dished out eight assists in 19 minutes, is the smart and practical way to build their offensive system, considering the fact that they can’t rely on Embiid to be present every night. Hence, why I think Embiid’s assists will tick up and his scoring will tick down.
Again, that doesn’t mean Embiid’s days as a star player are over. Even prior to his injuries, I was always pretty bullish on Embiid’s potential to be a high-level player after his athletic prime is over. He is one of the best mid-range shooters on the planet, he has a great feel for the game, and he’s an elite screen-setter. Whenever he’s healthy enough to step on the court, he will find ways to positively impact the game offensively no matter what his role is.
But I do think that part of what I’m acknowledging here is that this is a different phase of Embiid’s evolution. The MVP days are over, but I don’t think the All-Star days – or at least, the All-Star impact days – are over.
Perhaps none of these are all that bold individually, but all three strung together as a 3-leg parlay should be good enough for it to qualify as bold. Let’s get into some specifics.
I think Edgecombe’s defense will be legitimately great in year one – not just relative to your average rookie. His athleticism and IQ are off the charts. His presence alone is going to be enough to make the Sixers a better defensive team compared to last year; his motor and skill set are exactly what the Nick Nurse style of defense needs in order to be successful. Even if his on-ball defense takes a bit to develop, his off-ball impact will be immediate and profound.
Leading this team in deflections would be no small feat – both Kelly Oubre and Paul George are consistently among the league leaders in that category every year. But if preseason is any indication, he will have a fighting shot at it. He gets his hands on absolutely everything.
Regarding his scoring, there will be a lot of ups and downs for Edgecombe in year one. His shooting and general creation ability are, in my opinion, still pretty far away for someone many expect to reach star-level heights in those departments. Where he does shine is in off-ball, role player-like settings, particularly on broken plays where he can use his athleticism to create something out of nothing. That alone will be enough to get him to the 12-ish points per game mark.
Whatever V.J. becomes as an offensive player is still years away from becoming clear. I still think the pick could be considered a successful one if he tops out as an Alex Caruso / Josh Hart level of player – an elite defender with an iffy jump shot who still manages to be a positive offensive player through IQ and hustle plays. What remains to be seen is if he can ascend beyond that into a two-way impact that allows him to be in the mix for All-Star teams – something like a 6’4” version of Andre Iguodala.
I suspect that the discourse around V.J.’s rookie year will be a litmus test for who is actually watching the games versus who isn’t. I think he will shine as a role player and defender, but there will be nights where he’s 1-8 from deep while Ace Bailey puts up some cool highlights and Twitter starts complaining about the pick.
Here’s the thing: I watched some of the Ace minutes from the pre-season. Will Hardy and the Jazz are using him like Rip Hamilton. He is flying around screens and they are barely letting him dribble in the half court. If he fully buys into that role, he’ll be great! If he demands to be given more freedom so he can play more like Kevin Durant – which he has made abundantly clear that he likely will do – he’ll probably struggle quite a bit. Time will tell which of those scenarios comes true.
What I do know is that Edgecombe is going to be fun, likeable, impactful and drama-free from night one. I think he will help transform the Sixers’ defense, show some flashes on offense, and ultimately find his way on First Team All-Rookie.
I’m buying the Barlow hype!
I’m not just saying this because they kinda physically resemble one another – the way that Barlow operates on the glass reminds me a bit of Matisse Thybulle on defense. He gets his hands on things that you almost can’t believe he’s able to get to.
Between his motor and athleticism, I think there’s a really solid chance Barlow becomes a mainstay in the rotation. He might even start opening night. Throw in Jabari Walker’s iffy pre-season and Trendon Watford’s uncertain health, and I feel pretty good about this prediction.
And So the Eyes of Philadelphia Turn to the Camden Practice Facility
I don’t think it’s an accident that in the final pre-season game, still missing Paul George and Trendon Watford, Edwards barely played prior to the fourth quarter.
The sell on Edwards last season was that he’s an above-average shooter who is precisely average at everything else. But in summer league and pre-season play, Edwards has not shot the ball well, and has generally looked as though he’s trying to force things in a way that he simply did not last season.
I’m not expecting him to fall totally out of the rotation, but between his struggles and the additional depth that this team has, it wouldn’t shock me at all if Edwards spends most or all of the season on the fringes. He’s a useful ninth man, but his play of late has certainly been concerning, and I’m a little cooler on him than I was last winter.
Oubre is very superfluous on this team. There isn’t a ton of need for him from a basketball perspective. My expectation that he will be traded is largely due to the fact that it will make sense to trade him regardless of how this season goes. If the team is struggling, they will dump his contract to duck the tax. If the team looks great, they will trade him for a better-fitting win-now piece.
Oubre is their largest expiring salary, and they can get under the luxury tax threshold just by dumping his contract. It wouldn’t shock me if the Sixers attempt to do some combination of win-now plus salary dumping, as they’ve done at each of the past two deadlines. An Oubre salary dump plus a Grimes-type trade involving Drummond, Eric Gordon, and picks might make some sense.
Doug Collins used to talk all the time about how easy it is to be competent in the NBA. That was really his whole shtick – he would go to a lifeless team, get them to play hard as hell, and their win total would go up by 5-10 games despite him not bringing any real tactical innovations to the table.
I say that to make the point that one of the reasons the Sixers will be better this season compared to last season is the sheer fact that I expect them to play much, much harder. They are younger, more athletic, more competitive, and the guys that were here last year are at least somewhat pissed off.
Additionally, I think it’s worth noting that the Nick Nurse style of defense – one which demands tons of movement and decision making from its personnel – is much better suited for this year’s roster compared to last year’s. As I touched on above, I expect Edgecombe to make a real difference in year one, and the defense will feel more cohesive just thanks to his presence. Throw in a full year of Grimes, far fewer Andre Drummond minutes, plus legitimate wing bodies who are high-motor, and I think this team will have a really tough defense.
The real prediction here is that Grimes and Edgecombe prove to be more than playable as a duo. Parsing which of them is the small forward in that lineup isn’t really that important – though it is worth noting that Grimes has played 29 percent of his minutes in the NBA at the small forward position, according to Basketball Reference. Between the two of them, I think Grimes is more suited to guard big wings at the moment, so I’d call him the three.
Regardless, I think it will become clear very early on that Maxey-Edgecombe-Grimes is their best 1-2-3 combination, and that the three of them can play together long term if Grimes re-signs here. If I were Nick Nurse, my starting lineup on opening night would be those three, Barlow, and Embiid.
I’m a relative optimist on Grimes in general; I think the scoring flashes we saw last year were mostly legit. It would not shock me at all if Grimes is the Sixers’ third-leading scorer this season.
And while most people have probably assumed that there is bad blood there and that the Sixers stand no chance of re-signing him next summer, I don’t view that as being the case. The amount of cap space that should be available league-wide has been far overblown; it should only be marginally better than this past summer, and most of the teams with space are teams that could have made a run at Grimes this year. I don’t expect him to be fielding $30 million AAV offers left and right.
The Sixers have over $20 million in salary coming off the books after this year, including Grimes’ $8.7 million qualifying offer. They’ll be $25 million shy of the luxury tax heading into the off-season. If this year goes well for both Grimes and the team, I think it would make a ton of sense for him to be back here long term.
There are many areas of Sixers fandom where you’d be an idiot to suggest that “it can’t get any worse than last year,” but shooting luck for truly great shooters is not one of them. It would be absolutely stunning if George has another down shooting year after shooting just 35.8 percent from deep in 2025. I’m expecting him to be closer to where he was in 2024, when he shot 41.3 percent.
Regarding McCain, the fact that he even shot 38 percent on threes as a rookie despite having to carry the offense for extended stretches is pretty remarkable. This year, with the chance to settle into a less burdensome role, I expect him to cross the 40 percent threshold.
Obviously, anyone expecting the Sixers to exceed their projections is making a bet on them getting better health from their stars. And as I alluded to above, I do think we will see Embiid and George play better and more often than last year.
But an equally large part of my reason for optimism is the fact that I really, really strongly believe that a large chunk of the Sixers’ problems last season boil down to three things: coaching, shooting luck and a catastrophic lack of size on the wing.
Regarding coaching, it’s already clear to me from the pre-season that Nick Nurse and co. will be running a more intricate offense than they did last year. Will he strike gold on some sort of new, revolutionary offensive structure? Probably not. Will it be enough to give them a fighting chance at competency, unlike last year? I think so.
I touched on the shooting luck above – that is the one thing, unlike injuries, which one can very reasonably say that it’s almost impossible for it to continue to be just as bad this season.
And regarding their issues on the wing, I view Barlow, Walker, and Watford as being just competent enough to allow for the strengths of this roster to shine through. Having George for more games would obviously help, as well. A full season of Grimes, plus the addition of Edgecombe – both of whom do wing-like things in terms of their rebounding, deflections, and switchability – will also help quite a bit. And of course, they will have the flexibility to trade expiring contracts like Oubre and Drummond for a starting-caliber forward, if they so choose.
Some better coaching, improved depth and anything besides absolute rock-bottom injury and shooting luck will make this an above-average basketball team. There is noticeably more hunger and noticeably less loser energy on this team compared to last season. Their win total should be somewhere in the mid-40s. I wouldn’t bet the house on it, but I feel more confident in it than most people seem to throughout the basketball internet.
