Coming out of the latest Saturday of action, let’s take a look at the updated ESPN top 25 college football rankings as we look ahead to the Week 11 games.
How is this poll made? Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance.
Rankings and predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.
Teams are slotted not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.
25. Florida
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Rankings change: Up 2
Win prediction: 4.8 games
ESPN creates these rankings based in part on margins, and the Gators just played a close game against rival Georgia. It was a loss, so improving their position in the poll is another puzzling decision by this model, especially considering they’re just 3-5.
24. Florida State
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Rankings change: Up 7
Win prediction: 6.5 games
The biggest positive mover in ESPN’s rankings coming out of the weekend, the Seminoles stopped a four-game losing streak by smacking around Wake Forest by a 42-7 count and there is a theoretical path to an 8-4 record. Enough to save Mike Norvell’s job?
23. Washington
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Rankings change: None
Win prediction: 8.6 games
One of college football’s top 25 ranked scoring offenses with over five touchdowns per game, the Huskies (6-2) were off in Week 10, but return with two very winnable games, at Wisconsin and at home against Purdue, before going to UCLA and finishing against Oregon.
22. Penn State
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Rankings change: Down 1
Win prediction: 5.4 games
Yes, the ESPN computers are still putting the Nittany Lions in their weekly rankings, even after losing their fifth-straight game, this time on the road against Ohio State. This model ranks teams by a projected scoring margin, but even there this team is just 32nd nationally in that category, and that average is heavily skewed by early wins against cupcakes.
21. LSU
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Rankings change: Up 1
Win prediction: 7.2 games
What a whirlwind LSU has been in the last week, losing their third game, firing Brian Kelly, getting rid of their athletic director, and now in the midst of that turmoil heading into a road test against a streaking and very confident rival in Alabama next time out. Apparently, they’ve done enough to stay in ESPN’s rankings.
20. Iowa
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Rankings change: None
Win prediction: 8.0 games
Also off this weekend, the Hawkeyes are still one of college football’s absolute-worst passing offenses, but they’re on a three-game win streak and are just 8 combined points away from being undefeated. Both those losses were to ranked opponents.
19. Michigan
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Rankings change: Down 4
Win prediction: 8.8 games
Not the best game for Bryce Underwood, as the Wolverines quarterback completed just 13 passes for under 150 yards with no touchdowns and an interception, but Jordan Marshall put the team on his back in Justice Haynes’ absence, rushing for 185 yards and 3 touchdowns to put away Purdue by five at home.
18. Missouri
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Rankings change: Up 1
Win prediction: 8.3 games
Idle on Saturday, the Tigers have lost two of their last three, both against ranked SEC competition, falling to 2-2 in conference play, and now return home against a third-ranked Texas A&M squad that is playing generational football right now.
17. Vanderbilt
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Rankings change: None
Win prediction: 9.0 games
For a while there early on, it looked like Vandy was about to get housed on the road at Texas, but they crawled back into it, scoring 21 unanswered points and very nearly recovering the onside kick, but it wasn’t enough, slightly damaging the Dores’ SEC title hopes in an otherwise magical season.
16. Oklahoma
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Rankings change: Up 2
Win prediction: 8.5 games
There was still some skittish offense despite a better all-round showing from quarterback John Mateer, who had 80 rushing yards, but it was the Sooners’ defense that set the tone on Rocky Top, handing Tennessee a third loss and salvaging OU’s playoff chances for the time being, albeit with no margin for error the rest of the way.
15. Tennessee
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Rankings change: Down 2
Win prediction: 8.2 games
College football’s second-ranked scoring offense was supposed to be challenged by Oklahoma’s stout defensive pass rushers, but they just couldn’t find anything except turnovers in the first half, and ultimately couldn’t do enough to come back, dropping a third game and their playoff hopes along with it.
14. BYU
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Rankings change: Up 2
Win prediction: 11.0 games
Still undefeated and atop the competitive Big 12 standings, the Cougars took this weekend off following two straight road wins, the latter against Texas Tech, and now head into a home date against TCU before going to league contender Cincinnati.
13. Ole Miss
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Rankings change: Down 1
Win prediction: 10.5 games
The Rebels’ defense put on a show, sacking LaNorris Sellers 6 times and picking him off twice while rushing for 258 yards and 2 touchdowns to get past South Carolina and improve to 8-1 with an easy path to 11 regular season wins and what looks like a clean road to the College Football Playoff eventually.
12. Miami
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Rankings change: Down 2
Win prediction: 9.4 games
Another week, another loss to an unranked team for the preseason ACC title favorite Hurricanes, this one in overtime on the road against SMU, the first time this team has played outside Florida all season. Carson Beck’s late interception helped seal their fate and suddenly Miami’s playoff credentials are even more severely damaged sitting at 2-2 in conference play.
11. Texas Tech
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Rankings change: Up 3
Win prediction: 10.9 games
Behren Morton threw for 249 yards and 2 touchdowns in a return from injury and the Red Raiders’ stout defense did its part in generating turnovers to come away with a 23-point win over Kansas State, setting up a monster home game against Big 12 leader BYU next weekend with major postseason implications.
10. USC
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Rankings change: Down 1
Win prediction: 8.9 games
Suddenly, the Trojans find themselves in the College Football Playoff conversation after beating Nebraska on the road and improving to 6-2 this season, and there’s a mixed bag of games to finish the regular season, against Northwestern, Iowa, Oregon, and UCLA.
9. Texas A&M
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Rankings change: Down 1
Win prediction: 11.0 games
Off this weekend, the Aggies are riding high, the only remaining undefeated team in the SEC and coming off that rout against LSU that helped get Brian Kelly fired, and now have to be on guard in three winnable games, starting at Missouri, before the finale on the road against resurgent Texas.
8. Texas
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Rankings change: Down 4
Win prediction: 8.9 games
Arch Manning looked solid, going 25 of 33 passing for 328 yards with 3 touchdowns and no interceptions, jumping out to a quick lead on a 75-yard TD on the first play in an impressive win over ranked Vanderbilt, and there’s still a road to the SEC title game for these Longhorns after a sluggish start.
7. Utah
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Rankings change: Up 4
Win prediction: 9.6 games
Devon Dampier had over 200 yards passing with 2 touchdowns and the Utes ran for 267 more yards with 3 scores in a dominant 45-14 victory over ranked Cincinnati to prove a point that they still belong in the Big 12 conversation. And they earn a good position in ESPN’s rankings given their recent winning margins. They rank 5th in FBS in that category.
6. Georgia
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Rankings change: None
Win prediction: 10.3 games
The reigning SEC champion avoided some genuine disaster, overcoming a deficit and needing another comeback effort to finally put away rival Florida in a four-point decision that will once again raise questions around this team’s habit of falling behind early. But they’re still 7-1 and well on course to return to Atlanta, and beyond.
5. Notre Dame
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Rankings change: None
Win prediction: 9.6 games
It was an unexpected rock fight early on for the Irish on the road against one-win Boston College, but Jeremiyah Love saved their bacon again, rushing for a 94-yard touchdown after a needed takeaway on defense, winning their sixth-straight game since an 0-2 start and elbowing their way back into the College Football Playoff discussion.
4. Alabama
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Rankings change: None
Win prediction: 10.9 games
Off this past weekend, the Crimson Tide are on a seven-game win streak and looking like genuine SEC championship contenders, returning next Saturday against a newly-unranked and now coach-less LSU at home.
3. Oregon
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Rankings change: None
Win prediction: 10.2 games
One of college football’s ten-best teams both in scoring offense and scoring defense, the Ducks were off this Saturday and hope to get a little more aggressive coming off that lackluster win against Wisconsin as they line up against Iowa on the road, where they’ll be tested by the Hawkeyes’ sixth-ranked scoring defense, allowing 13 points per game.
2. Indiana
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Rankings change: None
Win prediction: 12.2 games
For the fifth time this season, the Hoosiers’ dynamic offense surpassed the 50-point mark, this time smashing up Maryland by a 55-10 count as Fernando Mendoza threw 1 TD and ran for another, but there are some concerns around the health of lead wideout Elijah Sarratt and a new leg injury.
1. Ohio State
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Rankings change: None
Win prediction: 12.2 games
Julian Sayin is uncannily efficient throwing the football right now, completing nearly 81 percent of his passes, the highest of any quarterback through his first 8 games in the playoff era, and hit 87 percent of his throws in a big win over Penn State with 4 touchdowns and no turnovers to stay undefeated.
