Wembanyama’s award chances keep growing. Plus, we preview Thunder and Cavaliers

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On this date 20 years ago, the NBA implemented a dress code for players coming to games, leaving games, sitting on the bench and conducting NBA business (interviews). It was a desperate attempt by David Stern and the league to appease sponsors following the fallout of the Malice at the Palace. It was so dumb.
The height of controversy
Is the expanding Wembanyama a DPOY lock?
If you’re sick of 21-year-old Victor Wembanyama already, then the next 15 years are going to be tough for you. He’s going to be one of the most influential players in NBA history. We’re already seeing it as he barely dips his toes into his 20s
Earlier this week, there was an internet discovery that he was listed at 7-foot-5, before that dropped back down to 7-foot-4. Boban Marjanovic (actually 7-foot-4) said he has to look up to Wemby. And Brian Windhorst posited that Wemby might be 7-foot-7. Needless to say, I was all over this story. Shoutout to these two comments on the story, which had me rolling. Via Dave DuFour:
Brilliant!
I’ve been thinking a lot about Wemby and the upcoming Defensive Player of the Year race this season. He’s the favorite to win the award (-185) with Chet Holmgren (+700), Amen Thompson (+1300) and reigning DPOY Evan Mobley (+1400) as the closest competition. Reminder: Wembanyama was on his way to winning the award in just his second year before his deep vein thrombosis cut his season short.
While I don’t think he was the best defender, even when healthy, last season, it made me wonder if blocked shots are going to skew the results in the immediate and in the long-term future of this award. Wemby didn’t qualify for DPOY voting last season because he missed the 65-game barrier. However, in just 46 games he still led the NBA in total blocks (176) with 28 more blocks than second-place finisher Brook Lopez.
I don’t know if you’re like me, but I have this recollection of leading shot-blockers taking home the DPOY hardware throughout the majority of its existence. I figured that’s why big men almost always win them. But that assumption might not be accurate. I went back and looked at all of the winners since the DPOY award debuted in the 1982-83 season.
This is what I found in the 43 times the award was given out:
- Fourteen times: The leading blocked shots average (qualified) or total blocks leader won DPOY. Eleven of those were the blocked shots average leader.
- Nine times: The second-leading shot blocker (qualified average or total blocks) won the award. Six of them were the blocks per game leader.
- Twice: Only two times in the last 15 years has the leading shot blocker (average or totals) won DPOY. 👀
So maybe there is something here, but it’s not as prevalent as I remembered. What I’m remembering as “if you lead the league in blocks then you’re likely getting DPOY” is even more centralized to a specific stretch.
- 1983-1991: One leading shot blocker (Mark Eaton with 5.56 blocks per game) won DPOY.
- 1992-2010: Eleven leading shot-blockers (Dikembe Mutombo three times, Alonzo Mourning and Dwight Howard two times each, and then David Robinson, Hakeem Olajuwon, Marcus Camby, and Ben Wallace all with one) won DPOY.
- 2011-present day: Two leading shot-blockers (Rudy Gobert and Jaren Jackson Jr.) won DPOY.
The theory I had was mostly concentrated in those 19 years in the middle. So the trend of the award in the past 15 years doesn’t lend itself to Wemby outright winning it, but he seems to be favored for a reason. He is an excellent defender. Even when he messes up, his length can correct the mistake in the blink of an eye.
Eaton was the tallest DPOY winner in league history at 7-foot-4. Depending on how tall you think Wembanyama actually is, he could set that record this season.
The Last 24
Nuggets all in on keeping Joker
🏀 Culture reset. Denver’s makeover is all about trying to take advantage of having Nikola Jokić. And making him happy enough to stay.
🧊 No extension. Trae Young can be a free agent in 2026. And he’s not signing an extension with Atlanta.
🏀 Help, please. The 76ers really want to contend with their roster this season. They need a lot to go right.
🩼 Piston down. Detroit guard Jaden Ivey had knee surgery. He’s out at least four weeks.
📲 New media. The NBA isn’t just a basketball or a sports league. It’s a media and technology league.
🔮 See the future. James Edwards has all of the predictions you need for the Knicks. Finals yes, Giannis no… for now.
💰 Seeing Green. The Milwaukee Bucks have reached an extension with AJ Green. “Dairy Bird” is getting $45 million over four years.
BIDS scores
Rating Murphy’s windmill and Davison’s poster
Remember the Bounce Index Dunk System? We debuted it a couple days ago after years of complicated calculations to fine-tune this way of scoring dunks. If you’re unfamiliar with the system itself, you can check it out here. Last night, two big dunks happened that we need to use the BIDS on.
We start with Trey Murphy III of the New Orleans Pelicans. In a preseason game in Orlando, he caught a lob from Zion Williamson in transition and decided to throw down a nasty windmill dunk on the alley-oop.
It’s shades of Vince Carter. It’s shades of Gerald Green. We don’t get a lot of windmills off the lob, so let’s score it.
- Convulsion/jump scare: 10/10. This one did it for me with the legs kicking out in different directions and the clean windmill throwdown.
- Bench reaction: 8/10. They popped up real quick.
- Dunker reaction: 8/10. I love the confidence of the little side-step and look to the bench.
- Where is the damn replay? 8/10. Had to wait 15 seconds for a foul to stop play to get some replays. And we needed them.
- Witness protection scale: 6/10. Unfortunately, this wasn’t on anybody. Wendell Carter Jr. made a business decision here, and rightfully so.
Total BIDS score for Murphy III: 40/50.
Also on Thursday, JD Davison of the Houston Rockets gave us a poster in transition. Davison is an Instagram legend from his high school days. And he’s spent a little bit of time bouncing around two-way contracts in the NBA. Well, he punched one on Vit Krecji last night. John Hollinger, avert your eyes!
- Convulsion/jump scare: 8/10. He doesn’t get absurdly high, but he does punch it.
- Bench reaction: 10/10. They loved it. They walked toward him. They pointed.
- Dunker reaction: 8/10. Wouldn’t have minded him doing a bit more mugging here, but he’s trying to make the roster and get back on defense.
- Where is the damn replay? 9/10. We didn’t get a replay for nearly a minute!
- Witness protection scale: 9/10. Vit has seven inches on JD. Can’t happen.
Total BIDS score for Davison: 44/50.
Championship continuity
2025-26 Season Preview: Thunder still on top
We have reached the end of our team previews for the upcoming 2025-26 season. We went in reverse order of where The Bounce believes these teams will finish in the conference. And by The Bounce, I mean me. Here’s the list:
15. Jazz
14. Pelicans
13. Suns
12. Kings
11. Trail Blazers
10. Spurs
9. Mavericks
8. Grizzlies
7. Clippers
6. Warriors
5. Lakers
4. Timberwolves
3. Rockets
2. Nuggets
That takes us to our No. 1 team in the West, the defending champion Oklahoma City Thunder. They tied for the fifth most wins in a season (68), had the biggest margin of victory (12.87) ever and the most double-digit wins (54) of all time. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander won MVP, Jalen Williams was All-NBA and All-Defense, and the Thunder were the second-youngest team to ever win a championship. They bring back 15 players from last season. So can they win it all again in an era of parity? Let’s dive in!
Drama Meter: There is absolutely zero. I guess the tax bill will come for them in a year (more down below), but that’s it. This team mostly strolled to a title for 90 percent of that run. Nobody is stressed here.
Hot Seat Meter: Mark Daigneault could openly campaign to move this team back to Seattle and I’m pretty sure the Thunder would still employ him. Maybe the second-coldest seat in the NBA behind Erik Spoelstra.
Offseason question: We thought the Denver Nuggets were likely to repeat in 2023-2024. They didn’t make the conference finals. We thought the Boston Celtics were likely to repeat last season. They also didn’t make the conference finals. OKC shouldn’t suffer the same fate.
2026 free agents: Isaiah Hartenstein (team option) | Lu Dort (team option) | Kenrich Williams (team option) | Ousmane Dieng (restricted)
This will be interesting. The Thunder have the 18th-highest payroll in the league and are nowhere close to the second apron. But in the 2026-27 season, they’re projected as the most expensive team and over $20 million into the second apron. The team options on Dort and Hartenstein could cure that, and maybe they will rework them for the future. Expectation for this season: The only goal is the championship and becoming the first team since Golden State in 2017 and 2018 to repeat. Pretty incredible expectation for a team in a conference with Denver and Houston.
Cavalier attitude?
2025-26 Season Preview: Is continuity good?
Now it’s time for a recap of where I’ve placed the Eastern Conference teams in our season preview run. Here’s the list:
15. Wizards
14. Nets
13. Hornets
12. Raptors
11. Bulls
10. 76ers
9. Heat
8. Pacers
7. Hawks
6. Celtics
5. Bucks
4. Pistons
3. Magic
2. Knicks
That brings us to our top team in the Eastern Conference (at least for the regular season), the Cleveland Cavaliers.
The Cavs under Kenny Atkinson were a buzzsaw. They won their first 15 games, set an NBA record with three different 12-game win streaks in one season and finished with the second-best offense ever. But they didn’t have the playoff success you’d assume. They blamed injuries but were knocked out in the second round, coming up short once again. They opted for continuity and brought nearly everybody back. Is that all it takes to win the wide-open East? Let’s dive in!
Drama Meter: It has to be high at this point. They’ve gone through every excuse for why they were knocked out early in the previous three postseasons. And the only one you can actually buy is two years ago against Boston. This core is great in the regular season and lacking in the playoffs. That can’t be the case again this year.
Hot Seat Meter: Even with this pressure and drama, Atkinson seemed to plant himself firmly in a safe zone with his coaching. Maybe another early playoff exit could raise some eyebrows, but his seat is cold for now.
Offseason question: “By default” could be an acceptable answer to that question. This Cavs team is good, it has depth and it can beat you in a variety of ways. Without Indiana and Boston in the way, Cleveland has a great shot at making the conference finals, at least.
2026 free agents: Lonzo Ball (team option) | Dean Wade | Thomas Bryant | Larry Nance Jr.
This team is pretty locked in. We may see the Cavs move Ball or decline his team option for second-apron reasons. We could see that core get disrupted if they lose early again. But this team is technically locked in with its roster.
Expectation for this season: Much like the Knicks yesterday, I don’t know if Cleveland can beat whichever contender comes out of the West. But winning the East has to be the expectation. If that doesn’t happen, you have to wonder if the Cavaliers make some big roster changes.



