Can Ryan Donato net another 30-plus goals for the Blackhawks? An early analytics breakdown
The Chicago Blackhawks probably needed to secure at least one player in the offseason who could score some goals, even if the young players took a step this year. Whether that was bringing back someone or finding someone new, it was obvious, at least on paper, that the team could use some more offensive pop in the lineup.
Ryan Donato was the easiest and most obvious option, especially considering how quickly the free-agent pool became depleted of similar players. The questions surrounding Donato, though, were how much and how long the Blackhawks would have to re-sign him for, and especially whether Donato could repeat anything near his 31-goal season.
For that first set of questions, the Blackhawks and Donato agreed to a four-year extension with a $4 million cap hit hit. As for the second, there were legitimate reasons to be skeptical. He hadn’t scored more than 16 goals in any previous season. His 31-goal campaign came at the age of 28. He shot a career-best 17.0 percent. He also performed to those heights in a contract year.
Donato believed in himself and thought what he did with his skating last season unlocked what he could be as a player. He felt he was just scratching the surface. But whether most people think the same was always going to be determined by his output this season. If he scores 12 goals, he probably isn’t going to receive the benefit of the doubt. But if he scores near last season’s total … well, then there’s a growing sample and further proof.
From here, let’s get one thing clear: Seven games isn’t a substantial sample. We shouldn’t be making definitive statements behind the evidence of so few games. Donato had a nine-game stretch and two eight-game stretches where he didn’t score a goal last season. Things turned out fine. His season can easily go the other way, too.
So all that said, the fact he has three goals in his first seven games this season is a positive indicator. He’s only twice in his career had such starts to a season: last season and this season. That can’t be completely ignored.
But let’s go beyond his current totals. What matters more now is not the actual number, but how Donato is scoring those goals. His path to 30-plus goals again is likely the same as last season: He has to A) be around the net and B) finish those chances at a percentage.
Being around the net can mean positioning himself there within the zone, creating his own breakaways or even just being involved in rushes. Donato’s improved skating has made him more efficient and consistently faster. Based on NHL’s Edge data, he had more 18-20 and 20-22 mph bursts last season than he did the previous season, which factored into scoring more goals last season. Sixteen of his 31 goals last season came around the net in the high-danger area — on rebounds, breakaways, rushes and being simply available around the net. He had another eight goals come in the slot. So, most of his goals are coming from a short distance.
So far, it appears Donato is doing similar things again. His three goals were scored in his last three games, but even through his first four, the underlying analytics showed promise. He had five high-danger chances in those three games, including three against the Montreal Canadiens. He especially helped drive offense once he joined Jason Dickinson and Ilya Mikheyev on the third line. He had been bumped off the top line after playing the preseason and the season opener with Connor Bedard and André Burakovsky.
That didn’t bother Donato, though.
“I think no matter where I am, I think I can create,” he said recently. “You can say if I scored (the first game), things wouldn’t change, but I know how it works. You know, it’s about winning more than that. Obviously when we did certain things, we found chemistry with other guys, and things work in weird ways. But, you know, the team looks good and I’m ready to help the team in whatever way I need to.”
In his fourth game, Donato finally capitalized on a chance with Dickinson and Mikheyev. Against the St. Louis Blues, Donato was at the front of the net after a shot got through, swung at one rebound attempt, got cross-checked from behind and scored as he swung at another attempt and was falling to the ice.
delivering you this touchdown🙌 pic.twitter.com/npASXPknEY
— Chicago Blackhawks (@NHLBlackhawks) October 16, 2025
A game later, Donato was standing right next to the net when Burakovsky delivered a perfect pass for a tap-in second goal on the power-play.
someone call for a delivery?📦 pic.twitter.com/OuCdgr1KAA
— Chicago Blackhawks (@NHLBlackhawks) October 18, 2025
For his third goal, Donato passed to Connor Bedard on a two-on-one in overtime. Bedard’s attempted was stopped, but he got the puck back, went behind the net and set up Donato, who was at the front of the net.
CHICAGO WINS IT ✅
Ryan Donato is the @Energizer overtime hero for the @NHLBlackhawks! pic.twitter.com/f8wXqy8X6e
— NHL (@NHL) October 20, 2025
It’ll be worth following all season, but the analytics are positive for Donato so far. He’s averaging more high-danger chances than last season, at 6.79 high-danger chances per 60 minutes now compared to 3.77 last season. Last season’s number was lower than it had been at times in his career, but he made up with that in shooting percentage. His percentage is high now at 17.7, but that’s close to what he had last season. Is that realistic to keep up? Time will tell. But it’s often smart to follow the chances.
“I think if you’re always creating, then you’re always giving yourself a chance, right?” Donato said. “When those chances stop coming, that’s when you gotta look at your game and say what can I do differently? But if you’re around it and you know you’re getting those chances, it’s a matter of bearing down and having one go in and they come in bunches usually. So I think that once one goes in, you can kind of get some confidence and then you can kinda play free and then then other chances happen.”
As Blackhawks coach Jeff Blashill admitted earlier this season, you don’t often see players of Donato’s veteran status figuring it out and becoming elite goal scorers. For Blashill, it’s about how Donato plays.
“It’s not normal,” Blashill said. “He’s like the rest of our guys — we have to make sure we learn to produce that offense while playing winning hockey. Him and I talked early in the year: I don’t want him to be a 30-goal scorer on a bad team. I want him to be a guy who produces offense on a great team. There’s a difference there, and I think he’s buying into that. He’s not perfect, but every day, he’s trying to take the better approach to playing a complete game and still being a scorer. He’s another guy that, when he has the puck in certain areas, he’s got a chance to score. So, let’s make sure you have that in those areas.”
Donato is trying not to stress out about the actual goals. He’s been around long enough and experienced hot and cold streaks.
“You can get all the chances you want, and sometimes they don’t go in, and sometimes you get a few a game, and somehow one sneaks in, even if it’s ugly,” Donato said. “I just keep praying that if I do the right things, good things will happen. And keep trying to work as hard as I can and get those opportunities. No matter where you are in the lineup or who you’re playing with, I always say my habits really don’t change. And, yeah, it’s definitely nice to see the puck go in.”
