Rugby league fans, consider this as you prepare for the biggest weekend in Test match history: At least one of Australia, England, New Zealand, Samoa or Tonga will not play beyond the pool stage at next year’s World Cup.
With the rise of the Pacific nations, international rugby league has never been stronger or more competitive and after last Sunday’s epic opening to the Pacific Cup in New Zealand fans are torn between what will be the best match this weekend.
Will it be the first Ashes Test in 22-years at Wembley Stadium or the long-awaited clash between Pacific powerhouses Toa Samoa and Tonga at a packed Suncorp Stadium?
Both are absolute blockbusters – one in the Northern Hemisphere and one in the Southern Hemisphere; one re-establishing the traditional rivalry on which international rugby league was built, the other representing the modern face of the game.
And while the two heavyweight contests are getting most publicity, there is a raft of other international fixtures this weekend, including:
- Pacific Bowl (women): Cook Islands Moana v Tonga XIII
- Pacific Bowl (men): PNG Kumuls v Cook Islands Aitu
- Ashes (men): England v Australia Kangaroos
- World Cup qualifier (men): France v Jamaica
- Pacific Cup (women): Australia Jillaroos v Fetu Samoa
- Pacific Cup (men): Tonga XIII v Toa Samoa
- World Cup qualifier (women): Fiji Bulikula v Nigeria Green Falcons
England hasn’t played Australia since the 2017 World Cup final after an extra-time loss to Samoa in the semi-final of RLWC2021 denied the hosts a redemption shot against the Kangaroos at Old Trafford.
The Toa’s last match against Tonga was a gripping 20-18 quarter-final win a week earlier.
Many are comparing the rivalry between Samoa and Tonga with State of Origin and those comparisons are supported by their head-to-head results – Samoa having won 11 Tests to Tonga’s 10 since 1986. Samoa has won the last two Tests between the Pacific rivals after Tonga won the previous two.
Jason Taumalolo plans to continue leading Tonga at RLWC2026 but when he retires someone should build a statue for what he has done for the international game by opting to play for his heritage at the 2017 World Cup.
That decision has inspired others to follow suit, including Samoan stars Payne Haas and Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow, and the international eligibility rules have resulted in the game being more competitive than ever, including:
- Samoa beating England to become the first Pacific nation to reach a World Cup final in 2022
- The Kiwis inflicting a record 30-0 defeat of Australia in the 2023 Pacific Cup final
- Tonga edging NZ to qualify for the 2024 Pacific Cup final, losing 20-14 to Australia at a packed CommBank Stadium
- England winning Test series’ against Samoa in 2023 and Tonga in 2024
The Tests in London and Brisbane this weekend are a great entrée into the 2026 World Cup in Australia and Papua New Guinea, which will be most keenly contested since Fédération Française de Rugby à XIII president Paul Barrière founded the concept in 1954.
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International Rugby League is in the best space it’s ever been
With just 10 teams in the men’s tournament, the play-off stage of RLWC2026 will feature semi-finals and a final only – meaning only four teams can advance from the pools, whereas in the past there has been eight.
So which nations are going to miss out? It’s too difficult to predict when you look at the Australian, England, Samoan and Tongan sides lining up this weekend. Or the Kiwis team which edged the Toa 24-18 in Auckland last Sunday.
A poll on NRL.com comparing the forward packs of the top five nations shows how closely matched fans believe the teams are, with Australia leading on 29% followed by the Kiwis on 23% and Samoa and Tonga each on 21%.
And don’t discount Fiji, Lebanon or PNG either, who have all been regular quarter-finalists at recent World Cups.
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The RLWC returns to Australia and the Pacific
The Bati qualified for the semi-finals at the 2008, 2013 and 2017 World Cups and only fell short in 2022 after Kiwis superstar Joey Manu scored a late try to break an 18-18 deadlock in the quarter-final at Hull.
After winning the Pacific Bowl against Fiji in 2023 and 2024, the Kumuls are aiming to qualify for the World Cup semi-finals for the first time and will begin their build-up to RLWC2026 against Cook Islands on Saturday.
The Aitu are yet to qualify for the World Cup and have a play-off match against South Africa on November 9 at CommBank Stadium, while France host Jamaica in an RLWC2026 qualifier in Albi on Saturday that is arguably the most important match of the weekend.
In Canada, Fiji Bulikula and Nigeria Green Falcons will be aiming to create history by becoming the first women’s team from their nation to qualify for a Rugby League World Cup when they meet in the final of the IRL World Series.
Other women’s international matches this weekend include the Jillaroos playing their opening match of the Pacific Cup at Suncorp Stadium against a Fetu Samoa side that last weekend led the Kiwi Ferns 20-0 at halftime only to be go down 22-20.
In PNG, Tonga women will take on Cook Islands Moana in the Pacific Bowl.
