One dominant performance, a bunch of duds and an appropriately middling record through 10 games.
That sums up the Edmonton Oilers’ season to date. They earned one of a possible four points over the weekend thanks to a pair of losses in Seattle and Vancouver — the second in overtime — and own a pedestrian 4-4-2 record.
There hasn’t been a lot to like about their performance, yet upside and reasons for optimism remain.
Here’s what I think and what I know about the Oilers so far.
What I think: The endless line shuffling is hurting chemistry
It wouldn’t be surprising if coach Kris Knoblauch had the chorus of U2’s “I Still Haven’t Found What I’m Looking For” stuck in his head. With the Oilers generating and producing little at five-on-five, the coach hasn’t hesitated to switch up his lines. He’s done so at breakneck speed.
The Oilers have used 27 different trios to begin their 10 games, a jaw-dropping total without even considering how often they’ve altered lines within specific contests as well. The start of the season was always going to be about exploration, but Knoblauch has taken that idea to the extreme.
Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, when they’ve been together, have started games with four different linemates: Trent Frederic, Andrew Mangiapane, Vasily Podkolzin and Matt Savoie/Adam Henrique. (Savoie got the assignment last Tuesday in Ottawa but Henrique took a ceremonial first shift for his 1,000th NHL game.)
Wingers Jack Roslovic and Ike Howard have also gotten shifts with them in-game. Knoblauch said the hook is out quickly in that scenario because there can’t be someone dragging down two superstars.
Frederic got the first crack and lasted all of two games there. Since then, he’s played almost exclusively in the bottom six — at third centre or wing on one of the bottom two lines.
Frederic is just one forward who’s been all over the map. Often, there hasn’t been much rhyme or reason for all the changes. Noah Philp had an outstanding game against Vancouver on Oct. 11 and scored his first NHL goal. He then was scratched for the next three contests. Howard has hastily been moved all around the lineup.
If Knoblauch were a game show contestant, he’d be the guy consistently buzzing in before the host finished reading the question. At least he provided a steady hand in Vancouver on Sunday.
The players aren’t using all the line combinations as an excuse, but they’re quick to point out how out of sync they’re playing. Maybe there’s a connection.
What I know: The Oilers are far from a finished product offensively
Zach Hyman, one of the Oilers’ emotional leaders and the top natural winger, could return from a dislocated wrist as early as Saturday. The Oilers have desperately missed his presence around the blue paint in the offensive zone both on the power play and especially at five-on-five.
Zach Hyman could return from a dislocated wrist as soon as Saturday. (Steph Chambers / Getty Images)
It’ll likely take Hyman some time to get up to speed and find his scoring touch given he hasn’t suited up in a game in more than five months and that he’s returning from a dislocated wrist. Having him find his stride down the stretch is what matters most to the Oilers.
Activating Hyman means someone must come off the roster and someone in the lineup must sit. All of that improves the overall mix. Another way the group is bound to improve: The Oilers are targeting a top-nine winger before the trade deadline. They will be better in time up front, especially as the coaching staff navigates more time with McDavid and Draisaitl together.
What I think: Connor McDavid isn’t being selfish enough
Almost every intermission press-box conversation I’ve had this season with someone not from Edmonton has started with a query or comment about McDavid’s play. They have either commented that McDavid doesn’t look himself or expressed frustration with how much he’s passed off when he’s had a scoring chance.
The eye test sure supports those critiques. The low point for individual offensive generation came on Saturday in a 3-2 loss in Seattle when McDavid failed to register a shot on net.
It’s perhaps not surprising, then, that McDavid has just one goal — scored on the power play — in 10 games to start the season.
What I know: McDavid’s struggles are overstated
McDavid will be just fine.
Despite only scoring once, McDavid still has 12 points. That’s two points more than he had through 10 games played in each of the last two years — though he sustained an ankle injury one shift into Game 10 last October. He improved to a 1.74 points-per-game rate in 2023-24 and 1.49 last season. Slow starts don’t tend to linger for too long.
Plus, there’s more than historical precedent to believe in McDavid. He’s in the 88th percentile in high-danger shots with 10, according to NHL Edge. His 28 shots put him in the 92nd percentile. He has 2.13 individual expected goals at five-on-five, per Natural Stat Trick, which indicates he’s been more unfortunate rather than underwhelming.
It’s only a matter of time before McDavid breaks out.
What I think: The time apart for Evan Bouchard and Mattias Ekholm is needed
Bouchard and Ekholm’s last season together wasn’t quite as strong before Ekholm’s late injury run. Still, the duo has been on the short list of the best defensive pairings in the league since Ekholm was acquired in February 2023. They haven’t been close to that this month.
Bouchard has made some terrible reads and decisions with the puck. Ekholm looks a step behind and less confident after recovering from his torn abductor injury. That combination has led to some dreadful results. The Oilers have been outscored 8-1 with the duo on the ice at five-on-five, per Natural Stat Trick. Five of those goals came over a two-game stretch — Thursday against Montreal and Saturday at Seattle.
That led to the top pairing getting some time apart midway through the 3-2 loss to the Kraken. They were separated for the entirety of Sunday’s 4-3 overtime defeat in Vancouver.
Bouchard, paired with Darnell Nurse, played one of his best games of the season, highlighted by a beautiful pass that sprung Draisaitl for a breakaway goal. Ekholm continued to struggle next to Jake Walman. He got walked by Kiefer Sherwood on a goal against late in the second period.
What I know: This defence needs time to jell
The top five defencemen on this blue line played in all of four games together from the time Walman was acquired in March through the end of the regular season because of injuries.
They got just seven games in the playoffs from the finale of the Western Conference final onward, and Ekholm wasn’t at his top gear.
They’ve played just the last four games together this season because Walman was sidelined for the first six contests.
All that, combined with Paul Coffey’s departure from the bench and Mark Stuart now running the group, means an adjustment period is to be had.
The organizational belief is that the blue line is not only a strength, but also the best it’s been in recent memory. It just needs more time to round into top form.
The Oilers also have Alec Regula, Ty Emberson and Troy Stecher in the Nos. 6-8 slots. The management and scouting staffs will keep an eye on other right-handed defencemen ahead of the trade deadline.
What I think: Goaltending is still worth monitoring
Stuart Skinner has had some outstanding performances, namely his shutout at Madison Square Garden and his effort in Ottawa in what was his 100th NHL win. He’s also let in a few questionable goals along the way. Overall, his .903 save percentage is passable and an improvement on last season.
Calvin Pickard hasn’t been nearly as strong. His teammates gifted him a win against the Canucks in his first start when they absolutely dominated the visitors. He allowed one goal on 15 shots. Since then, his save percentages by game are .818, .815 and finally .852 on Sunday. A small sample size to be sure, but that’s not great.
Goaltending was the biggest issue entering the season. Skinner has calmed the noise a bit, but the position remains a hot-button topic.
What I know: The Oilers won’t be rushing Connor Ingram
The was plenty of intrigue when the Oilers acquired Ingram from Utah earlier this month. It was almost as if there was a countdown clock activated by fans eagerly awaiting his arrival in Edmonton.
The thing to consider, however, is Ingram hadn’t played a game since February. He then went into the NHL/NHLPA Player Assistance Program to get help dealing with his mother’s death from breast cancer. He’s only just getting back into game action with the AHL’s Bakersfield Condors.
Ingram was excellent in his first start (one goal on 22 shots), but not nearly as good in his next one (five goals on 29 shots). Those two appearances came on Oct. 18 and 24. The 28-year-old needs more work.
Ingram is certainly someone to keep an eye on, but barring an injury or something completely unforeseen, don’t expect him with the big club soon.
